Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.61
SignalNEUTRALModel58%SurpriseMediumGap-2.3%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.92
SignalNEUTRALModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+6.8%
Independiente Rest
4 days
Newells Old Boys Rest
5 days
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys: the result in context
Independiente beat Newells Old Boys 1-0 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 31 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 6 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Referee Pablo Echavarria averages 4.73 cards a game, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
160%1.61
X25%3.70
215%6.00
Double Chance
1X85%1.12
X240%2.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%2.15
No47%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.63 + 0.88 = 2.51
Over 1.571%1.40
Over 2.547%2.25
Over 3.526%4.20
Under 1.529%2.87
Under 2.553%1.65
Under 3.574%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 3.9 = 10.1
Over 8.560%1.65
Over 9.549%2.05
Over 10.537%2.60
Under 8.540%2.10
Under 9.551%1.69
Under 10.563%1.40
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.5 = 3.9
Over 3.551%1.32
Over 4.532%1.71
Under 3.549%2.80
Under 4.568%1.97
Match Events
31'W. Nunez INT. Rios out
41'S. Montiel
43'J. FedorcoFoul
46'W. Mazzantti INA. Sonora out
46'M. Abaldo INM. Meza out
64'S. Valdez INK. Lomonaco out
64'M. Perez Curci IND. Martinez out
69'I. Ramirez INM. Coccaro out
69'F. Guch INJ. Russo out
73'L. RegiardoFoul
75'L. Godoy INS. Arias out
77'F. EscobarFoul
82'M. Luciano INF. Scarpeccio out
87'S. Montiel INL. Cabral out
88'D. MartinezFoul
90+1'F. ScarpeccioFoul
Lineups
IndependienteNewells Old Boys
4-2-3-1Coach: Lucas BernardiAvg ratingAvg rating
33R. Rey
29L. Godoy
13J. Fedorco
36S. Valdez
22F. Zabala
16M. Perez Curci
C23I. Marcone
28M. Gutiérrez
7S. Montiel
19M. Abaldo
9G. Ávalos
30J. Reinatti
24F. Escobar
25B. Cabrera
17L. Giannetti
3M. Luciano
8D. Sotelo
C5L. Regiardo
7W. Mazzantti
20F. Guch
33W. Nuñez
99J. Ignacio RamírezIndependiente Substitutes
8Maxi Meza46'for M. Abaldo
26Kevin Lomónaco64'for S. Valdez
32David Martínez64'for M. Perez Curci88'
4Santiago Arias75'for L. Godoy
10Luciano Cabral87'for S. Montiel
1Joaquín Blázquez
35Juan Miguel Arrayago
3Jonathan De Irastorza
14Lautaro Millán
37Joel Medina
34Felipe Tempone
18Facundo Valdéz
Newells Old Boys Substitutes
39Lautaro Rios31'for W. Nunez
15Alan Soñora46'for W. Mazzantti
28Jeronimo Russo69'for F. Guch
9Matías Cóccaro69'for I. Ramirez
36Francisco Scarpeccio82'for M. Luciano90+1'
21Gabriel Arias
23Nicolás Goitea
22Óscar Salomón
2Ian Glavinovich
34Tomás Viola
35Blas Benedetto
37Mateo Villalba
Match Stats
IndependienteNewells Old Boys 49%Ball Possession51%
7Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots2
4Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal1
9Shots Inside Box1
3Shots Outside Box1
3Blocked Shots0
12Fouls7
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves3
408Total Passes447
324Passes Accurate350
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Team Comparison
IndependienteNewells Old Boys1648Elo Rating 1628
0.61Attack 0.66
1.74Defense 2.37
0%Hit Rate 19%
14.1Shots per Game 11.3
4.0Shots on Target 3.4
4.3Corners per Game 5.2
3.3Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Newells Old Boys- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 6 meetings, all competitions
Independiente2Wins · 33%Draws117%
Newells Old Boys3Wins · 50%
3Wins · 50%2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6
Previous meetings
28/01/2026Newells Old BoysIndependiente11
26/11/2024Newells Old BoysIndependiente21
12/07/2023IndependienteNewells Old Boys02
25/09/2022IndependienteNewells Old Boys10
31/10/2021Newells Old BoysIndependiente10
05/03/2021Newells Old BoysIndependiente12
Recent Form
Independiente6W1D3L
26/07/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente02
W23/05/2026
Union Santa FeIndependiente
Union Santa FeIndependiente02
W10/05/2026
Rosario CentralIndependiente
Rosario CentralIndependiente31
L02/05/2026
San LorenzoIndependiente
San LorenzoIndependiente12
W24/04/2026
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente20
L19/04/2026Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
IndependienteDefensa Y Justicia31
W12/04/2026
Boca JuniorsIndependiente
Boca JuniorsIndependiente11
D04/04/2026Independiente
Racing Club
IndependienteRacing Club10
W27/03/2026Independiente
Atenas
IndependienteAtenas42
W22/03/2026Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
IndependienteTalleres Cordoba12
LNewells Old Boys4W4D2L
25/07/2026Newells Old BoysTalleres Cordoba
Newells Old BoysTalleres Cordoba10
W05/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys11
D26/04/2026Newells Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
Newells Old BoysInstituto Cordoba11
D18/04/2026Union Santa FeNewells Old Boys
Union Santa FeNewells Old Boys23
W12/04/2026Newells Old BoysSan Lorenzo
Newells Old BoysSan Lorenzo00
D06/04/2026
Central Cordoba de SantiagoNewells Old Boys
Central Cordoba de SantiagoNewells Old Boys13
W30/03/2026Newells Old Boys
Acassuso
Newells Old BoysAcassuso02
L21/03/2026Newells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
Newells Old BoysGimnasia M.10
W17/03/2026
LanusNewells Old Boys
LanusNewells Old Boys50
L11/03/2026Newells Old Boys
Platense
Newells Old BoysPlatense11
DReferee Profile
4.73Cards per match
4.56Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
23.7Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.73 cards a match, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.28).
Cards come from 157 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | DDLLD |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | DWLLD |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | WDLDD |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | DDDWW |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | LDDWW |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | DDWWD |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | WWWLD |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | DLLLD |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | DDDWL |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 34 | DDWWD |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24:14 | +10 | 33 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:17 | +8 | 28 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21:15 | +6 | 28 | LDWLW |
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19:12 | +7 | 26 | DDDWW |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | DDDWL |
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 23 | WDLDD |
| 8 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18:17 | +1 | 22 | DDLLW |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 20 | WWWLD |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9:16 | -7 | 19 | LDDWW |
| 12 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21:22 | -1 | 16 | DDLLD |
| 13 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:23 | -6 | 13 | DWLLD |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 11:19 | -8 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12:26 | -14 | 11 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 26:15 | 34 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 24:14 | 33 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 25:17 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 21:15 | 28 |
| 5 | Lanus | 16 | 19:12 | 26 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 15:16 | 23 |
| 8 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 18:17 | 22 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:24 | 21 |
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 18:20 | 20 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 9:16 | 19 |
| 12 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 21:22 | 16 |
| 13 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 12:26 | 11 |
Liga Profesional Argentina
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 32 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 46:23 | +23 | 63 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 46:28 | +18 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 37:27 | +10 | 60 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 50:39 | +11 | 57 | DWLDL |
| 5 |  Gimnasia L.P. | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44:39 | +5 | 57 | WWWWD |
| 6 | Velez Sarsfield | 32 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 43:29 | +14 | 56 | LDWWL |
| 7 |  River Plate | 32 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 43:26 | +17 | 55 | WLWWD |
| 8 | Instituto Cordoba | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 43:32 | +11 | 55 | DDWWD |
| 9 | Lanus | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 37:27 | +10 | 50 | DDDWW |
| 10 |  Belgrano Cordoba | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 34:28 | +6 | 49 | LDLLW |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 40:29 | +11 | 47 | DDLLD |
| 12 |  Barracas Central | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 32:28 | +4 | 47 | WDWDW |
| 13 | Independiente | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 39:36 | +3 | 47 | WDLDD |
| 14 | Defensa Y Justicia | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 39:36 | +3 | 47 | LDWLW |
| 15 |  Huracan | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 31:29 | +2 | 44 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 48:44 | +4 | 42 | WDWDL |
| 17 | Gimnasia M. | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32:39 | -7 | 41 | DDLLW |
| 18 | San Lorenzo | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 23:30 | -7 | 41 | LDDWW |
| 19 |  Sarmiento Junin | 32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 36:44 | -8 | 40 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Tigre | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 34:31 | +3 | 39 | WWLDL |
| 21 | Talleres Cordoba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 34:36 | -2 | 39 | DWLLD |
| 22 | Newells Old Boys | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 31:40 | -9 | 38 | DDDWL |
| 23 | Racing Club | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 33:39 | -6 | 36 | LWLDL |
| 24 | Platense | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 28:35 | -7 | 36 | WWWLD |
| 25 |  Banfield | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 35:44 | -9 | 33 | DLDLW |
| 26 |  Atletico Tucuman | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 31:37 | -6 | 32 | DLWLD |
| 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 23:47 | -24 | 27 | DLLLD |
| 28 | Deportivo Riestra | 32 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 16:31 | -15 | 23 | LLLDL |
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 32 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 22:45 | -23 | 19 | LLWLL |
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 32 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 15:47 | -32 | 14 | LLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 32 | 46:23 | 63 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 32 | 46:28 | 62 |
| 3 | Argentinos JRS | 32 | 37:27 | 60 |
| 4 | Independ. Rivadavia | 32 | 50:39 | 57 |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 32 | 44:39 | 57 |
| 6 | Velez Sarsfield | 32 | 43:29 | 56 |
| 7 | River Plate | 32 | 43:26 | 55 |
| 8 | Instituto Cordoba | 32 | 43:32 | 55 |
| 9 | Lanus | 32 | 37:27 | 50 |
| 10 | Belgrano Cordoba | 32 | 34:28 | 49 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 32 | 40:29 | 47 |
| 12 | Barracas Central | 32 | 32:28 | 47 |
| 13 | Independiente | 32 | 39:36 | 47 |
| 14 | Defensa Y Justicia | 32 | 39:36 | 47 |
| 15 | Huracan | 32 | 31:29 | 44 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe | 32 | 48:44 | 42 |
| 17 | Gimnasia M. | 32 | 32:39 | 41 |
| 18 | San Lorenzo | 32 | 23:30 | 41 |
| 19 | Sarmiento Junin | 32 | 36:44 | 40 |
| 20 | Tigre | 32 | 34:31 | 39 |
| 21 | Talleres Cordoba | 32 | 34:36 | 39 |
| 22 | Newells Old Boys | 32 | 31:40 | 38 |
| 23 | Racing Club | 32 | 33:39 | 36 |
| 24 | Platense | 32 | 28:35 | 36 |
| 25 | Banfield | 32 | 35:44 | 33 |
| 26 | Atletico Tucuman | 32 | 31:37 | 32 |
| 27 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 32 | 23:47 | 27 |
| 28 | Deportivo Riestra | 32 | 16:31 | 23 |
| 29 | Aldosivi | 32 | 22:45 | 19 |
| 30 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 32 | 15:47 | 14 |
Relegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Profesional Argentina matches
- Gimnasia L.P. vs River Plate 30/07/26
- Instituto Cordoba vs Platense 30/07/26
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Huracan 31/07/26
- Talleres Cordoba vs Velez Sarsfield 31/07/26
- Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Atletico Tucuman 31/07/26
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Banfield 01/08/26
- Gimnasia M. vs Union Santa Fe 01/08/26
- Belgrano Cordoba vs Argentinos JRS 01/08/26
About the Independiente vs Newells Old Boys forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente and Newells Old Boys in the Liga Profesional Argentina table
In the Liga Profesional Argentina table, Independiente are 5th and Newells Old Boys 14th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Independiente 24-20, Newells Old Boys 15-27. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.