Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 2
Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires· Pablo Echavarria, Argentina 31/07/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.61SignalSOLIDModel58%RiskMediumGap-2.3%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.96SignalGOODModel55%RiskMediumGap+6.8%
Independiente Rest
4 days
Newells Old Boys Rest
5 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
160%1.61
X25%3.70
215%6.00
Double Chance
1X85%1.12
X240%2.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%2.15
No47%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.63 + 0.88 = 2.51
Over 1.571%1.39
Over 2.547%2.25
Over 3.526%4.20
Under 1.529%2.88
Under 2.553%1.65
Under 3.574%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 3.9 = 10.1
Over 8.560%1.67
Over 9.549%2.05
Over 10.537%2.60
Under 8.540%2.12
Under 9.551%1.69
Under 10.563%1.40
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.5 = 3.9
Over 3.551%1.32
Over 4.532%1.72
Under 3.549%2.80
Under 4.568%2.00
Match Events
31'W. Nunez INT. Rios out
41'S. Montiel
43'J. FedorcoFoul
46'W. Mazzantti INA. Sonora out
46'M. Abaldo INM. Meza out
64'S. Valdez INK. Lomonaco out
64'M. Perez Curci IND. Martinez out
69'I. Ramirez INM. Coccaro out
69'F. Guch INJ. Russo out
73'L. RegiardoFoul
75'L. Godoy INS. Arias out
77'F. EscobarFoul
82'M. Luciano INF. Scarpeccio out
87'S. Montiel INL. Cabral out
88'D. MartinezFoul
90+1'F. ScarpeccioFoul
Lineups
IndependienteNewells Old Boys
4-2-3-1Coach: Lucas Bernardi
33R. ReyRodrigo Rey
29L. GodoyLeonardo Godoy
13J. FedorcoJuan Fedorco
36S. ValdezSebastián Valdez
22F. ZabalaFacundo Zabala
16M. Perez CurciMateo Perez Curci
23I. MarconeIván Marcone
28M. GutiérrezMaximiliano Gutiérrez
7S. MontielSantiago Montiel
19M. AbaldoMatías Abaldo
9G. ÁvalosGabriel Ávalos
30J. ReinattiJosué Reinatti
24F. EscobarFranco Escobar
25B. CabreraBruno Cabrera
17L. GiannettiLautaro Giannetti
3M. LucianoMartín Luciano
8D. SoteloDavid Sotelo
5L. RegiardoLuca Regiardo
7W. MazzanttiWalter Mazzantti
20F. GuchFacundo Guch
33W. NuñezWalter Nuñez
99J. Ignacio RamírezJuan Ignacio RamírezIndependiente Substitutes
8Maxi MezaF
26Kevin LomónacoD
32David MartínezM
4Santiago AriasD
10Luciano CabralM
1Joaquín BlázquezG
35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
14Lautaro MillánM
37Joel MedinaM
34Felipe TemponeF
18Facundo ValdézF
Newells Old Boys Substitutes
39Lautaro RiosM
15Alan SoñoraM
28Jeronimo RussoF
9Matías CóccaroF
36Francisco ScarpeccioF
21Gabriel AriasG
23Nicolás GoiteaD
22Óscar SalomónD
2Ian GlavinovichD
34Tomás ViolaM
35Blas BenedettoM
37Mateo VillalbaM
Match Stats
IndependienteNewells Old Boys 49%Ball Possession51%
7Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots2
4Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal1
9Shots Inside Box1
3Shots Outside Box1
3Blocked Shots0
12Fouls7
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves3
408Total Passes447
324Passes Accurate350
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Team Comparison
IndependienteNewells Old Boys1671Elo Rating 1617
0.92Attack 1.11
2.01Defense 2.34
37%Hit Rate 31%
14.6Shots per Game 8.3
4.1Shots on Target 3.5
5.4Corners per Game 3.6
1.6Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Newells Old Boys- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Based on 5 historical meetings
Independiente 17%Draw 27%56% Newells Old Boys
1.92Avg Goals
50%BTTS Rate
23%Over 2.5
Recent Form
Independiente3W0D2L
26/07/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente02
W23/05/2026
Union Santa FeIndependiente
Union Santa FeIndependiente02
W10/05/2026
Rosario CentralIndependiente
Rosario CentralIndependiente31
L02/05/2026
San LorenzoIndependiente
San LorenzoIndependiente12
W24/04/2026
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente20
LNewells Old Boys2W3D0L
25/07/2026Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
Newells Old BoysTalleres Cordoba10
W05/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys11
D26/04/2026Newells Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
Newells Old BoysInstituto Cordoba11
D18/04/2026Union Santa FeNewells Old Boys
Union Santa FeNewells Old Boys23
W12/04/2026Newells Old BoysSan Lorenzo
Newells Old BoysSan Lorenzo00
DReferee Profile
Pablo Echavarria, Argentina · 35 matches analysed
4.3Avg Yellows
4.5Avg Cards
23.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 47% of referees analysed
League Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | LLWWD |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | DWDDD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | DWDWD |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | WDLWW |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | DWDLW |
| 6 |  Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | WWLDL |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | DDDWD |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | LLDWW |
| 10 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | WDDDD |
| 11 |  Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | DDDLL |
| 12 |  Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | DDDWD |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | WDLWD |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | DLLLD |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | DDDDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | +4 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 18 | WDDDD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DWDWD |
| 4 | Gimnasia M. | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14:9 | +5 | 16 | DDDLL |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 12:11 | +1 | 14 | DWDDD |
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | DWDLW |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11:8 | +3 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:14 | +2 | 13 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Newells Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10:8 | +2 | 13 | DLLLD |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4:6 | -2 | 11 | DDDWD |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | DDDDD |
| 13 | Platense | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | DDDWD |
| 14 | Talleres Cordoba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 | WDLWW |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7:13 | -6 | 8 | WDLWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 9 | 10:6 | 19 |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 10 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Gimnasia M. | 9 | 14:9 | 16 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 9 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 9 | 16:14 | 13 |
| 9 | Newells Old Boys | 9 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 9 | 4:6 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes L.P. | 9 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 9 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 13 | Platense | 9 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 14 | Talleres Cordoba | 9 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 7:13 | 8 |
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction
Our AI model has analysed this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Liga Profesional Argentina
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Key Factors for This Match
Independiente and Newells Old Boys have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.92 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.