Liberia vs Mali Prediction

Liberia
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Mali
Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia·Mohamed Diraneh Guedi 29/09/2026
LiberiaLiberia
0-1
Finished
MaliMali

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.47
SignalNEUTRALModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-6.1%
Liberia Rest
4 days
Mali Rest
4 days

Liberia vs Mali: the result in context

Mali beat Liberia 1-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 29 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
14%6.50
X
23%3.80
2
63%1.47
Double Chance
1X
37%2.46
X2
86%1.08
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

22'Mohammed SangareFoul
64'Edward Ledlum INP. Tarnue out
64'Sylvanus Nimely INPeter Wilson out
75'Ousmane CamaraFoul
79'Ange Martial TiaAssist: Kamory Doumbia
82'Ange Martial Tia INSekou Koita out
82'Kamory Doumbia INLassana Coulibaly out
83'Nene Dorgeles INGaoussou Kyassou Diarra out
83'Franklin·Nyenetue INSabastien Teclar out
83'Nohan Kenneh INDivine Teah out
89'Lassine Sinayoko INModibo Sagnan out
90'Ayouba Kosiah INEmmanuel Flomo out
90+2'Mamadou Sangare INOusmane·Diakite out
90+4'Sabastien TeclarFoul

Lineups

Liberia
3-5-2Coach: Mohammed Adil Erradi
Mali
4-2-3-1Coach: Anthony da Silva
Avg rating6.35
Avg rating6.88
2323A. Williams
S. Dweh7.024S. Dweh
M. Sangare6.420M. Sangare
E. Fully7.03E. Fully
2222E. Ledlum
O. Dorley6.119O. Dorley
N. Kenneh5.54N. Kenneh
Salomon Tweh7.16S. Tweh
F. Nyenetue6.617F. Nyenetue
S. Nimely6.411S. Nimely
A. Kosiah6.110A. Kosiah
D. Diarra7.016D. Diarra
H. Traoré6.92H. Traoré
O. Camara6.625O. Camara
N. Gassama7.414N. Gassama
D. Guindo6.815D. Guindo
M. Sangaré7.28M. Sangaré
A. Dieng7.123A. Dieng
A. Tia7.812A. Tia
K. Doumbia7.610K. Doumbia
N. Dorgeles6.77N. Dorgeles
L. Sinayoko6.317L. Sinayoko

Liberia Substitutes

18P. Wilson64'for Sylvanus Nimely6.1
25Emmanuel Flomo90'replaced by Ayouba Kosiah
21Bryant Farkarlun
15Kindness Cole
7P. Martor
12P. Tarnue64'replaced by Edward Ledlum6.3
8D. Teah83'for Nohan Kenneh6.3
13Sabastien Teclar83'replaced by Franklin·Nyenetue90+4'
5George Diamond Wallace
1Amos Wesseh

Mali Substitutes

11L. Coulibaly82'for Kamory Doumbia6.6
3A. Danté
6O. Diakité90+2'for Mamadou Sangare6.5
21G. Diarra83'for Nene Dorgeles6.8
18M. Doumbia
4A. Haidara
5C. Keita
20S. Koïta82'for Ange Martial Tia6.4
13M. Sagnan89'for Lassine Sinayoko6.5
22M. Samassa
1golo n traore
19A. Camara

Match Stats

LiberiaMali
37%Ball Possession63%
3Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards1
8Total Shots16
1Shots on Goal3
1Shots off Goal6
5Shots Inside Box7
3Shots Outside Box9
6Blocked Shots7
13Fouls18
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves1
291Total Passes499
225Passes Accurate434
18Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

LiberiaLiberia
MaliMali
1389Elo Rating 1627
1.14Attack 0.77
1.09Defense 2.27
19%Hit Rate 27%
12.1Shots per Game 10.6
2.8Shots on Target 2.3
3.9Corners per Game 4.9
1.5Cards per Game 3.6

Game State Tendencies

LiberiaLiberia
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MaliMali
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)

Recent Form

LiberiaLiberia
3W2D5L
25/09/2026
RwandaLiberia
31
L
09/06/2026
LiberiaSierra Leone
31
W
06/06/2026
Sierra LeoneLiberia
10
L
13/10/2025
Equatorial GuineaLiberia
11
D
09/10/2025
LiberiaNamibia
31
W
08/09/2025
MalawiLiberia
22
D
04/09/2025
TunisiaLiberia
30
L
24/03/2025
LiberiaSao Tome and Principe
21
W
19/03/2025
LiberiaTunisia
01
L
28/12/2024
SenegalLiberia
30
L
MaliMali
4W3D3L
25/09/2026
MaliCape Verde Islands
31
W
04/06/2026
IranMali
20
L
09/01/2026
MaliSenegal
01
L
03/01/2026
MaliTunisia
3121
W
29/12/2025
ComorosMali
00
D
26/12/2025
MoroccoMali
11
D
22/12/2025
MaliZambia
11
D
12/10/2025
MaliMadagascar
41
W
08/10/2025
ChadMali
02
W
08/09/2025
GhanaMali
10
L

League Table

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1RwandaRwanda22005:2+36WW
2MaliMali22004:1+36WW
3Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands20022:5-30LL
4LiberiaLiberia20021:4-30LL
#TeamMPGPts
1RwandaRwanda25:26
2MaliMali24:16
3Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands22:50
4LiberiaLiberia21:40
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About the Liberia vs Mali forecast

This is a Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

More Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixtures and forecasts are on the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Liberia and Mali have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.