Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín Prediction

Estadio Diaguita 21/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.31
SignalSOLIDModel21%SurpriseHighGap-6.5%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.59
SignalSOLIDModel15%SurpriseHighGap+5.0%
Provincial Ovalle Rest
13 days
Real San Joaquín Rest
14 days

Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín: the result in context

Real San Joaquín beat Provincial Ovalle 6-1 in the Segunda División on 21 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 5 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.25
X
29%3.10
2
30%3.00
Double Chance
1X
70%1.31
X2
59%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.85
No
49%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 0.99 = 2.24
Over 1.5
63%1.38
Over 2.5
37%2.20
Over 3.5
18%3.95
Under 1.5
37%2.70
Under 2.5
63%1.59
Under 3.5
82%1.18
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

8'B. Gonzalez
10'B. Gonzalez
38'D. Maureira
46'L. Maluenda INR. Tarifeno out
46'D. Salazar INF. Rosales out
60'B. Araya INM. Avila out
68'B. Figueroa
72'B. Gonzalez INI. Farias out
72'S. Nunez INR. Abbruzzese out
74'D. Cuellar INL. Arce out
78'J. Gomez
78'J. Carreno INY. Cruz out
78'D. Maureira INL. Leger out
88'B. Figueroa INJ. Fica out
90'R. Abbruzzese
90+1'B. Cortes
90+1'A. Benavente
90+2'R. Tarifeno

Team Comparison

Provincial OvalleProvincial Ovalle
Real San JoaquínReal San Joaquín
1367Elo Rating 1368
1.05Attack 0.99
1.12Defense 1.21
36%Hit Rate 27%

Game State Tendencies

Provincial OvalleProvincial Ovalle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Real San JoaquínReal San Joaquín
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Provincial OvalleProvincial Ovalle2Wins · 40%
Draws120%
Real San JoaquínReal San Joaquín2Wins · 40%
2.6Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

Segunda División19/04/2026
Real San JoaquínProvincial Ovalle
32
Segunda División08/11/2025
Real San JoaquínProvincial Ovalle
10
Segunda División30/05/2025
Provincial OvalleReal San Joaquín
00
Segunda División12/10/2024
Real San JoaquínProvincial Ovalle
12
Segunda División19/05/2024
Provincial OvalleReal San Joaquín
40

Recent Form

Provincial OvalleProvincial Ovalle
1W3D6L
08/06/2026
Provincial OvalleTrasandino
11
D
30/05/2026
Concón NationalProvincial Ovalle
10
L
25/05/2026
Provincial OvalleMunicipal Salamanca
11
D
02/05/2026
ColinaProvincial Ovalle
20
L
27/04/2026
Provincial OvalleSantiago City
01
L
19/04/2026
Real San JoaquínProvincial Ovalle
32
L
13/04/2026
TrasandinoProvincial Ovalle
42
L
04/04/2026
Provincial OvalleConcón National
01
L
29/11/2025
TrasandinoProvincial Ovalle
01
W
21/11/2025
Provincial OvalleMunicipal Salamanca
11
D
Real San JoaquínReal San Joaquín
2W4D4L
07/06/2026
Real San JoaquínConcón National
01
L
25/05/2026
Santiago CityReal San Joaquín
22
D
10/05/2026
Real San JoaquínColina
01
L
02/05/2026
TrasandinoReal San Joaquín
00
D
26/04/2026
Real San JoaquínMunicipal Salamanca
00
D
19/04/2026
Real San JoaquínProvincial Ovalle
32
W
11/04/2026
Concón NationalReal San Joaquín
12
W
22/03/2026
Real San JoaquínSantiago City
12
L
30/11/2025
Real San JoaquínConcón National
04
L
23/11/2025
D. MelipillaReal San Joaquín
11
D

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Provincial OsornoProvincial Osorno1266015:5+1024WDWDD
2Municipal SalamancaMunicipal Salamanca1257011:5+622LWWDW
3ColchaguaColchagua1264215:11+422LLWDD
4Concón NationalConcón National1263316:10+621LWLDW
5Santiago CitySantiago City1255218:19-120LWLWD
6Linares UnidoLinares Unido1261516:12+419WWWLD
7TrasandinoTrasandino1253419:17+218LLWWD
8General VelásquezGeneral Velásquez1251611:15-416WLWWD
9Real San JoaquínReal San Joaquín1234516:17-113LLDWL
10Lota SchwagerLota Schwager1234511:13-213DWLDW
11ColinaColina1233615:14+112WLDLL
12Deportes RengoDeportes Rengo1232710:17-711WLWLL
13Santiago MorningSantiago Morning122469:14-510LLDLD
14Provincial OvalleProvincial Ovalle1213811:24-136LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Provincial OsornoProvincial Osorno1215:524
2Municipal SalamancaMunicipal Salamanca1211:522
3ColchaguaColchagua1215:1122
4Concón NationalConcón National1216:1021
5Santiago CitySantiago City1218:1920
6Linares UnidoLinares Unido1216:1219
7TrasandinoTrasandino1219:1718
8General VelásquezGeneral Velásquez1211:1516
9Real San JoaquínReal San Joaquín1216:1713
10Lota SchwagerLota Schwager1211:1313
11ColinaColina1215:1412
12Deportes RengoDeportes Rengo1210:1711
13Santiago MorningSantiago Morning129:1410
14Provincial OvalleProvincial Ovalle1211:246

About the Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín forecast

The forecasts for this Segunda División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Provincial Ovalle and Real San Joaquín in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Real San Joaquín are 9th and Provincial Ovalle 14th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Provincial Ovalle 11-24, Real San Joaquín 16-17. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.