Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns Prediction

Richards Bay Stadium (Umhlathuze), Richards Bay·Moreki Lekwape 13/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.32
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap-5.3%
Richards Bay Rest
24 days
Mamelodi Sundowns Rest
3 days

Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns: the result in context

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Richards Bay 4-1 in the Premier Soccer League on 13 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Mamelodi Sundowns had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Richards Bay.

Mamelodi Sundowns have had the better of this fixture, winning 9 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game. Referee Moreki Lekwape averages 2.65 cards a game, 1.03 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
11%8.90
X
20%4.56
2
69%1.32
Double Chance
1X
31%3.10
X2
89%1.06
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%2.27
No
58%1.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.74 + 1.74 = 2.48
Over 1.5
72%1.26
Over 2.5
49%1.87
Over 3.5
29%3.08
Under 1.5
28%3.45
Under 2.5
51%1.85
Under 3.5
71%1.31
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

18'Tashreeq MatthewsAssist: S. Mthanti
22'Lwandile Sandile Mabuya
37'Iqraam RaynersAssist: Tashreeq Matthews
48'Iqraam Rayners
59'Fawaaz basadienAssist: Teboho Mokoena
63'S. Mthanti INThemba Zwane out
63'Teboho Mokoena INThabo Cele out
63'Tashreeq Matthews INAntonio Van Wyk out
64'Cassius Mailula INNuno Santos out
67'Nqaba Xulu INLundi Mahala out
67'Luyanda Khumalo INWandile Ngidi out
68'S. Nzama INWandile Ngema out
79'Fawaaz basadienFoul
79'Malibongwe Prince Khoza INMothobi Mvala out
86'M. Mthembu INOlwethu Mbambo out
86'S. Gwele INSbani Khumalo out

Lineups

Richards Bay
4-3-3Coach: R.Gabriel
Mamelodi Sundowns
4-2-3-1Coach: Miguel Cardoso
Avg rating6.10
Avg rating7.22
Ian Aubrey Otieno6.11I. Aubrey Otieno
L. Mabuya6.422L. Mabuya
S. Mcineka5.725S. Mcineka
4949N. Mkhabela
S. Gwele5.237S. Gwele
L. Khumalo6.177L. Khumalo
2424S. Gumede
S. Gumbi6.212S. Gumbi
M. Mthembu6.520M. Mthembu
N. Xulu6.327N. Xulu
S. Nzama6.619S. Nzama
R. Williams6.930R. Williams
T. Matuludi7.022T. Matuludi
Malibongwe Khoza6.742M. Khoza
K. Ndamane7.33K. Ndamane
F. Basadien8.823F. Basadien
T. Mokoena7.74T. Mokoena
M. Allende7.211M. Allende
S. Mthanti7.738S. Mthanti
C. Mailula6.833C. Mailula
T. Matthews7.817T. Matthews
I. Rayners9.113I. Rayners

Richards Bay Substitutes

5T. Sikhakhane
31O. Mbambo86'for M. Mthembu6.3
14L. Mahala67'for Nqaba Xulu6.4
3S. Khumalo86'for S. Gwele5.8
6Khayelihle Mncube
35T. Ndelu
16Nhlakanipho Ngcobo
33W. Ngema68'for S. Nzama5.9
26Wandile Ngidi67'replaced by Luyanda Khumalo

Mamelodi Sundowns Substitutes

31R. Goss
12B. León
5D. Lunga
27T. Morena
40M. Mvala79'for Malibongwe Prince Khoza6.6
10Nuno Santos64'for Cassius Mailula6.4
29A. Van Wyk63'for Tashreeq Matthews6.5
19T. Cele63'for Teboho Mokoena6.7
18T. Zwane63'for S. Mthanti6.6

Match Stats

Richards BayMamelodi Sundowns
25%Ball Possession75%
2Corner Kicks7
0Yellow Cards1
5Total Shots22
3Shots on Goal9
2Shots off Goal10
3Shots Inside Box14
2Shots Outside Box8
0Blocked Shots3
7Fouls17
1Offsides3
5Goalkeeper Saves2
268Total Passes771
205Passes Accurate722
17Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

Richards BayRichards Bay
Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns
1381Elo Rating 1739
1.37Attack 1.78
0.00Defense 2.46
0%Hit Rate 59%
11.5Shots per Game 18.4
4.0Shots on Target 7.5
5.4Corners per Game 7.3
1.3Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend20% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Richards BayRichards Bay
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Richards BayRichards Bay0Wins · 0%
Draws110%
Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns9Wins · 90%
2.4Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier Soccer League26/04/2026
Richards BayMamelodi Sundowns
00
Premier Soccer League27/09/2025
Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay
41
8 Cup03/08/2025
Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay
40
Premier Soccer League30/04/2025
Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay
30
Premier Soccer League28/12/2024
Richards BayMamelodi Sundowns
02
Premier Soccer League02/04/2024
Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay
10
Premier Soccer League23/08/2023
Richards BayMamelodi Sundowns
01
Premier Soccer League25/04/2023
Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay
10
Cup07/02/2023
Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay
32
Premier Soccer League06/01/2023
Richards BayMamelodi Sundowns
02

Recent Form

Richards BayRichards Bay
0W5D5L
19/09/2026
Richards BaySekhukhune United
23
L
13/09/2026
Milford FCRichards Bay
51
L
04/09/2026
Richards BayAmazulu
12
L
26/08/2026
Richards BayKaizer Chiefs
22
D
15/08/2026
Durban CityRichards Bay
11
D
11/08/2026
Chippa UnitedRichards Bay
11
D
02/08/2026
Richards BayPolokwane City
12
L
23/05/2026
MagesiRichards Bay
10
L
16/05/2026
Richards BaySekhukhune United
11
D
09/05/2026
Marumo GallantsRichards Bay
11
D
Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns
8W1D1L
10/10/2026
Orlando PiratesMamelodi Sundowns
02
W
19/09/2026
Mamelodi SundownsAl-Ahli Jeddah
21
W
12/09/2026
Chippa UnitedMamelodi Sundowns
11
D
09/09/2026
Mamelodi SundownsSiwelele
30
W
06/09/2026
Golden ArrowsMamelodi Sundowns
12
W
02/09/2026
Mamelodi SundownsMilford FC
20
W
30/08/2026
Golden ArrowsMamelodi Sundowns
23
W
26/08/2026
Mamelodi SundownsAmazulu
52
W
23/08/2026
Mamelodi SundownsGolden Arrows
01
L
19/08/2026
Mamelodi SundownsMarumo Gallants
20
W

Referee Profile

Moreki Lekwape80 matches

2.65Cards per match
2.52Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Moreki Lekwape2.65
Other referees3.68

2.65 cards a match, 1.03 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.68).

Cards come from 31 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier Soccer League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns972023:8+1523WDWWW
2Orlando PiratesOrlando Pirates871019:1+1822WWWWW
3AmazuluAmazulu861112:8+419WWWWL
4Milford FCMilford FC943210:7+315WDWDL
5Kaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs835013:8+514DDDWD
6Sekhukhune UnitedSekhukhune United84229:8+114WWDDL
7StellenboschStellenbosch82429:8+110DWDDL
8Golden ArrowsGolden Arrows81523:4-18LDDLW
9Chippa UnitedChippa United81524:7-38LWDDD
10Durban CityDurban City81435:7-27LDLDW
11Polokwane CityPolokwane City81438:11-37LLDDD
12Kruger UnitedKruger United82154:12-87WLWLL
13TS GalaxyTS Galaxy81347:12-56LLLDW
14SiweleleSiwelele81347:13-66WDLLD
15Richards BayRichards Bay803510:20-103LLLLD
16Marumo GallantsMarumo Gallants80266:15-92LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns923:823
2Orlando PiratesOrlando Pirates819:122
3AmazuluAmazulu812:819
4Milford FCMilford FC910:715
5Kaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs813:814
6Sekhukhune UnitedSekhukhune United89:814
7StellenboschStellenbosch89:810
8Golden ArrowsGolden Arrows83:48
9Chippa UnitedChippa United84:78
10Durban CityDurban City85:77
11Polokwane CityPolokwane City88:117
12Kruger UnitedKruger United84:127
13TS GalaxyTS Galaxy87:126
14SiweleleSiwelele87:136
15Richards BayRichards Bay810:203
16Marumo GallantsMarumo Gallants86:152

About the Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns forecast

The forecasts for this Premier Soccer League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns in the Premier Soccer League table

The table shows a wide gap: Mamelodi Sundowns are 1st in the Premier Soccer League, while Richards Bay sit 15th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Richards Bay 10-20, Mamelodi Sundowns 23-8. The full standings are on the Premier Soccer League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.