Riga vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction

Riga
3-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Ararat-Armenia
Skonto stadions, Riga·B. Csonka 14/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
53%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.93
SignalNEUTRALModel38%SurpriseHighGap+5.4%
Riga Rest
4 days
Ararat-Armenia Rest
7 days

Riga vs Ararat-Armenia: the result in context

Riga beat Ararat-Armenia 3-2 in the UEFA Champions League on 14 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee B. Csonka averages 4.85 cards a game, 0.56 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%1.68
X
18%3.70
2
37%4.55
Double Chance
1X
63%1.15
X2
55%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%1.77
No
53%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.54 + 1.19 = 2.73
Over 1.5
73%1.25
Over 2.5
52%1.80
Over 3.5
32%2.96
Under 1.5
27%3.52
Under 2.5
48%1.95
Under 3.5
68%1.33
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

14'Iago SiqueiraAssist: M. Badamosi
23'A. Ankrah
34'Edgar GrigoryanFoul
41'Salah Oulad M'HandSimulation
44'Orlando GaloFoul
46'E. Grigoryan INA. Ambartsumyan out
46'Z. Shaghoyan
61'A. Tera INZ. Banjaqui out
61'A. Serobyan INFranca Carlos out
63'Sandro LimaAssist: Z. Banjaqui
66'Ahmed AnkrahOther reason
66'Zidane BanjaquiOther reason
69'S. Oulad M'Hand INReginaldo Ramires out
69'O. Galo INCaio Ferreira out
70'Hugo OliveiraFoul
71'Z. Shaghoyan INLuis Felipe out
72'Reginaldo RamiresFoul
80'R. Aouani INK. Wassom out
80'Iago Siqueira INA. Taiwo out
85'Carlos FrançaFoul
86'Paulo Eduardo INA. Cernomordijs out
87'Sandro Lima INA. Ndour out
90'Reginaldo Ramires(Penalty)

Lineups

Riga
3-5-2Coach: Adrian Gula
Ararat-Armenia
4-3-3Coach: Tulipa
Krišjānis Zviedris1K. Zviedris
Raivis Jurkovskis13R. Jurkovskis
Baba Musah21B. Musah
Paulo33Paulo
Raki Aouani7R. Aouani
Iago Siqueira Augusto8I. Siqueira Augusto
Ahmed Ankrah40A. Ankrah
Orlando Galo4O. Galo
Andrés Salazar17A. Salazar
Muhammed Badamosi19M. Badamosi
Salah Oulad M'Hand18S. Oulad M'Hand
João Bravim98J. Bravim
Kamo Hovhannisyan13K. Hovhannisyan
Bruno Wilson43B. Wilson
Junior Julio3J. Julio
Edgar Grigoryan16E. Grigoryan
Hugo Oliveira2H. Oliveira
Alwyn Tera20A. Tera
Karen Muradyan19K. Muradyan
Artur Serobyan77A. Serobyan
Sandro Lima91S. Lima
Zhirayr Shaghoyan7Z. Shaghoyan

Riga Substitutes

10Reginaldo Ramires69'for S. Oulad M'Hand72'90'
99Caio Ferreira69'for O. Galo
5Karl Gameni Wassom80'for R. Aouani
25Abdulrahman Taiwo80'for Iago Siqueira
34Antonijs Černomordijs86'for Paulo Eduardo
44Marcis Kazainis
3Abner
23Maksims Tonisevs
22Meïssa Diop

Ararat-Armenia Substitutes

10Armen Ambartsumyan46'for E. Grigoryan
11Zidane Banjaqui61'for A. Tera66'
95Carlos França61'for A. Serobyan85'
5Luís Felipe71'for Z. Shaghoyan
25Alioune Ndour87'for Sandro Lima
1Arman Nersesyan
14Bruno Pereira
6Michel Ayvazyan
17Maxence Carlier
9Arayik Eloyan
90Paul Ayongo

Match Stats

RigaArarat-Armenia
53%Ball Possession47%
2Corner Kicks2
4Yellow Cards3
16Total Shots6
7Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal3
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

RigaRiga
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia
1748Elo Rating 1616
1.69Attack 1.75
2.03Defense 1.27
34%Hit Rate 39%
17.7Shots per Game 15.6
5.0Shots on Target 6.6
6.1Corners per Game 5.7
2.2Cards per Game 4.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+132 Elo
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

RigaRiga
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

RigaRiga0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia1Wins · 100%
2.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Recent Form

RigaRiga
8W1D1L
10/07/2026
Leevon / PPKRiga
23
W
07/07/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaRiga
20
L
03/07/2026
RigaFS Jelgava
30
W
29/06/2026
AudaRiga
02
W
25/06/2026
BFC DaugavpilsRiga
00
D
21/06/2026
RigaFK Liepaja
40
W
17/06/2026
RigaRīgas FS
21
W
13/06/2026
Ogre UnitedRiga
14
W
29/05/2026
RigaGrobiņa
20
W
24/05/2026
RigaSuper Nova
30
W
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia
8W1D1L
07/07/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaRiga
20
W
27/06/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaVojvodina
11
D
27/05/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaGandzasar
10
W
17/05/2026
BKMAArarat-Armenia
23
W
10/05/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaFC Noah
04
L
06/05/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaPyunik Yerevan
10
W
03/05/2026
FC UrartuArarat-Armenia
02
W
25/04/2026
Ararat-ArmeniaArarat
40
W
20/04/2026
ShirakArarat-Armenia
04
W
11/04/2026
Pyunik YerevanArarat-Armenia
02
W

Referee Profile

B. Csonka109 matches

4.82Cards per match
4.54Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

B. Csonka4.85
Other referees4.29

4.85 cards a match, 0.56 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.29).

Cards come from 28 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded

About the Riga vs Ararat-Armenia forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Riga and Ararat-Armenia have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.