Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction

Arsenal Stadium (Tula), Tula 09/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel41%SurpriseMediumGap-7.1%
Arsenal Tula Rest
5 days
Spartak Kostroma Rest
13 days

Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma: the result in context

Arsenal Tula beat Spartak Kostroma 3-2 in the First League on 9 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Spartak Kostroma had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Arsenal Tula.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.42
X
31%3.17
2
34%2.88
Double Chance
1X
66%1.36
X2
65%1.49
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.87
No
49%1.82
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.02 + 1.32 = 2.34
Over 1.5
68%1.34
Over 2.5
42%2.27
Over 3.5
22%4.00
Under 1.5
32%2.78
Under 2.5
58%1.61
Under 3.5
78%1.17
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

6'Timur Melekestsev
23'Artem Biryukov
30'Daniil Plotnikov
37'Amur Kalmykov(Penalty)
38'Oleg Nikiforenko
39'Oleg Nikiforenko
46'Oleg Nikiforenko INDavid Karaev out
46'Nikita Glushkov INMilos Brnovic out
54'Milos Brnovic
63'David Karaev
63'Georgiy Uridia
66'Ivan Enin INAleksandr Alekhin out
66'Georgiy Uridia INDavid Davidyan out
68'Nader Mohammadi INKirill Chursin out
75'Vladislav Kamilov
75'Rashid Magomedov INIgor Gorbunov out
76'Timur Melekestsev
84'Amur Kalmykov INSergey Bugriev out
84'Vladislav Kamilov INRuslan Chervyakov out
90+2'Marko Bugarin

Lineups

Arsenal Tula
3-4-1-2Coach: D. Alenichev
Spartak Kostroma
4-4-2Coach: Evgeniy Taranukhin
A. Melikhov42A. Melikhov
D. Plotnikov77D. Plotnikov
D. Penchikov4D. Penchikov
K. Gotsuk24K. Gotsuk
G. Uridia22G. Uridia
D. Shamkin8D. Shamkin
I. Enin35I. Enin
N. Glushkov19N. Glushkov
A. Biryukov25A. Biryukov
T. Melekestsev23T. Melekestsev
R. Magomedov11R. Magomedov
M. Gaydash68M. Gaydash
D. Zhilmostnykh5D. Zhilmostnykh
N. Mohammadi6N. Mohammadi
M. Bugarin21M. Bugarin
A. Mokhammad96A. Mokhammad
V. Kamilov18V. Kamilov
D. Kaptilovich17D. Kaptilovich
A. Nemchenko22A. Nemchenko
O. Nikiforenko82O. Nikiforenko
Armin Spahic87A. Spahic
A. Kalmykov90A. Kalmykov

Arsenal Tula Substitutes

14M. Brnović46'for Nikita Glushkov54'
9D. Davidyan66'for Georgiy Uridia
82A. Alekhin66'for Ivan Enin
71A. Efremov
17I. Gorbunov75'for Rashid Magomedov
5Y. Krashevskiy
36M. Levashov
18M. Tsulaia
75T. Zhamaletdinov
10I. Zhigulev

Spartak Kostroma Substitutes

70R. Chervyakov84'for Vladislav Kamilov
69K. Chursin68'for Nader Mohammadi
8N. Demchenko
11D. Ghurtskaia
10D. Karaev46'for Oleg Nikiforenko63'
73D. Kirakosyan
77I. Meshcheryakov
66Maksim Nikiforov
13I. Rubtsov
50E. Shamov
3S. Bugriev84'for Amur Kalmykov

Match Stats

Arsenal TulaSpartak Kostroma
48%Ball Possession52%
6Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards4
9Total Shots11
7Shots on Goal7
2Shots off Goal4
0Blocked Shots0

Team Comparison

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma
1404Elo Rating 1539
2.11Attack 1.46
0.56Defense 2.08
46%Hit Rate 64%
3.6Shots per Game 7.3
2.5Shots on Target 3.4
3.4Corners per Game 5.2
2.5Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula0Wins · 0%
Draws267%
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1Wins · 33%
2.3Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored3 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

Friendlies Clubs21/06/2026
Arsenal TulaSpartak Kostroma
11
First League25/04/2026
Spartak KostromaArsenal Tula
11
First League13/09/2025
Arsenal TulaSpartak Kostroma
12

Recent Form

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
1W4D5L
04/10/2026
CSKA MoscowArsenal Tula
31
L
16/09/2026
EniseyArsenal Tula
31
L
13/09/2026
Arsenal TulaSka-khabarovsk
22
D
08/09/2026
TekstilshchikArsenal Tula
10
L
05/09/2026
Volga UlyanovskArsenal Tula
30
L
29/08/2026
Arsenal TulaUral
22
D
24/08/2026
VelesArsenal Tula
20
L
20/08/2026
Arsenal TulaRotor Volgograd
21
W
15/08/2026
LeningradetsArsenal Tula
00
D
08/08/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlArsenal Tula
22
D
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma
6W2D2L
26/09/2026
Spartak KostromaUral
12
L
18/09/2026
Volga UlyanovskSpartak Kostroma
01
W
14/09/2026
Spartak KostromaFK Neftekhimik
10
W
08/09/2026
RyazanSpartak Kostroma
02
W
05/09/2026
ChelyabinskSpartak Kostroma
01
W
31/08/2026
Spartak KostromaRotor Volgograd
10
W
21/08/2026
Torpedo MoskvaSpartak Kostroma
30
L
17/08/2026
Spartak KostromaFC UFA
11
D
09/08/2026
Ska-khabarovskSpartak Kostroma
13
W
01/08/2026
Spartak KostromaEnisey
22
D

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod15131144:15+2940WWWWW
2FC SochiFC Sochi15102326:15+1132WWWDW
3Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1584327:12+1528DWWDD
4UralUral1584325:11+1428WLLWW
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1583421:15+627LWLLW
6VelesVeles1683520:19+127LDWLD
7Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1558220:15+523WDWDL
8FC UFAFC UFA1556418:15+321LWLDL
9Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1663721:22-121WWDWL
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1554623:18+519DLDWW
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1554619:29-1019WLWLD
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1543819:26-715LLWDW
13EniseyEnisey1535716:30-1414LLLDW
14LeningradetsLeningradets1535712:26-1414DLLWL
15KAMAZKAMAZ1534819:27-813LWDWD
16FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik15411011:22-1113DLLLL
17Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1524918:28-1010WLDDD
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1524911:25-1410LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod1544:1540
2FC SochiFC Sochi1526:1532
3Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1527:1228
4UralUral1525:1128
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1521:1527
6VelesVeles1620:1927
7Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1520:1523
8FC UFAFC UFA1518:1521
9Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1621:2221
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1523:1819
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1519:2919
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1519:2615
13EniseyEnisey1516:3014
14LeningradetsLeningradets1512:2614
15KAMAZKAMAZ1519:2713
16FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik1511:2213
17Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1518:2810
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1511:2510

About the Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Arsenal Tula and Spartak Kostroma in the First League table

In the First League table, Spartak Kostroma are 5th and Arsenal Tula 11th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Arsenal Tula 19-29, Spartak Kostroma 21-15. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.