FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction

Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt·Lennart Kernchen 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.30
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-4.9%
FC Ingolstadt 04 Rest
2 days
Rot-Weiß Essen Rest
3 days

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen: the result in context

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 in the 3. Liga on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.4 a game across 8 meetings, with both teams scoring in 6. Referee Lennart Kernchen averages 3.82 cards a game, 1.12 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
29%3.23
X
24%3.72
2
47%1.95
Double Chance
1X
53%1.74
X2
71%1.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.41
No
36%2.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 1.71 = 3.14
Over 1.5
83%1.13
Over 2.5
64%1.44
Over 3.5
42%2.15
Under 1.5
17%5.45
Under 2.5
36%2.52
Under 3.5
58%1.62
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

10'Lukas FrödeFoul
33'Keanan Bennetts INEmre Gul out
33'Ben HuningFoul
45'Nishan Velupillay INFrederik Carlsen out
47'Jonas ScholzAssist: Dennis Kaygin
55'Franci Clarck Bouebari KitsamoutseFoul
59'Marvin Obuz INLucas Brumme out
59'Noah Pesch INEkin Celebi out
64'benjamin kanuric INJosef Ganda out
64'Dennis Kaygin INVinko Sapina out
73'Jannik Hofmann INMichael Kostka out
73'Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse INJaka Cuber Potocnik out
79'Dickson AbiamaFoul
81'Lars Lokotsch INObed Chidindu Ugondu out
84'Dickson Abiama IN

Lineups

FC Ingolstadt 04
4-4-2Coach: A. Beierlorzer
Rot-Weiß Essen
4-2-3-1Coach: U. Koschinat
D. Klein47D. Klein
L. Fröde34L. Fröde
G. Antzoulas6G. Antzoulas
J. Scholz15J. Scholz
L. Rosenlöcher19L. Rosenlöcher
K. Bennetts18K. Bennetts
Max Plath14M. Plath
B. Kanurić37B. Kanurić
N. Velupillay28N. Velupillay
L. Lokotsch13L. Lokotsch
D. Kaygin10D. Kaygin
J. Golz1J. Golz
1515b. huning
J. Ríos Alonso23J. Ríos Alonso
J. Hofmann37J. Hofmann
F. Bouebari19F. Bouebari
J. Sietan22J. Sietan
Noah Pesch11N. Pesch
M. Obuz10M. Obuz
S. Telalović17S. Telalović
D. Abiama18D. Abiama
M. Janssen20M. Janssen

FC Ingolstadt 04 Substitutes

7Seo Jong-Min
41V. Šapina64'for Dennis Kaygin
17O. Ugondu81'for Lars Lokotsch
20Y. Deichmann
4Elias Decker
8F. Carlsen45'for Nishan Velupillay
16J. Ganda64'for benjamin kanuric
5Emre Gül33'for Keanan Bennetts
1M. Ponath

Rot-Weiß Essen Substitutes

14L. Brumme59'for Marvin Obuz
26E. Çelebi59'for Noah Pesch
36J. Gnagnon
2M. Kostka73'for Jannik Hofmann
40R. Malaeb
9J. Potočnik73'for Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse
16R. Reisig
35F. Wienand
32L. Bazzoli

Match Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04Rot-Weiß Essen
42%Ball Possession58%
3Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots20
3Shots on Goal7
10Shots off Goal13
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

FC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04
Rot-Weiß EssenRot-Weiß Essen
1608Elo Rating 1664
1.68Attack 1.30
1.65Defense 2.13
69%Hit Rate 46%
12.3Shots per Game 16.5
4.0Shots on Target 5.6
5.6Corners per Game 4.3
2.6Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.15 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Rot-Weiß EssenRot-Weiß Essen
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

FC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 041Wins · 13%
Draws337%
Rot-Weiß EssenRot-Weiß Essen4Wins · 50%
3.4Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored6 of 8
75%3+ goals6 of 8

Previous meetings

3. Liga11/04/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenFC Ingolstadt 04
41
3. Liga08/11/2025
FC Ingolstadt 04Rot-Weiß Essen
12
3. Liga22/02/2025
Rot-Weiß EssenFC Ingolstadt 04
20
3. Liga21/09/2024
FC Ingolstadt 04Rot-Weiß Essen
22
3. Liga28/04/2024
Rot-weiss EssenFC Ingolstadt 04
40
3. Liga25/11/2023
FC Ingolstadt 04Rot-weiss Essen
21
3. Liga25/02/2023
FC Ingolstadt 04Rot-weiss Essen
11
3. Liga20/08/2022
Rot-weiss EssenFC Ingolstadt 04
22

Recent Form

FC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04
3W2D5L
14/10/2026
Waldhof MannheimFC Ingolstadt 04
03
W
11/10/2026
FC Ingolstadt 04SV Wehen
24
L
02/10/2026
1. FC NürnbergFC Ingolstadt 04
31
L
19/09/2026
FC Viktoria KölnFC Ingolstadt 04
30
L
16/09/2026
FC Ingolstadt 04Hoffenheim II
12
L
12/09/2026
FC SaarbrückenFC Ingolstadt 04
01
W
04/09/2026
FC Ingolstadt 04Alemannia Aachen
03
L
29/08/2026
SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachFC Ingolstadt 04
02
W
15/08/2026
Preußen MünsterFC Ingolstadt 04
11
D
08/08/2026
FC Ingolstadt 04Würzburger Kickers
22
D
Rot-Weiß EssenRot-Weiß Essen
6W4D0L
13/10/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenFortuna Köln
20
W
09/10/2026
Preußen MünsterRot-Weiß Essen
33
D
03/10/2026
Arminia BielefeldRot-Weiß Essen
22
D
20/09/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenHansa Rostock
11
D
16/09/2026
Waldhof MannheimRot-Weiß Essen
12
W
12/09/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenWürzburger Kickers
62
W
05/09/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenFC Viktoria Köln
10
W
29/08/2026
SV WehenRot-Weiß Essen
00
D
23/08/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenFC St. Pauli
20
W
15/08/2026
Rot-Weiß EssenHavelse
10
W

Referee Profile

Lennart Kernchen32 matches

3.82Cards per match
3.73Yellow cards per match
0.09Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lennart Kernchen3.82
Other referees4.94

3.82 cards a match, 1.12 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.94).

Cards come from 11 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

3. Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MSV DuisburgMSV Duisburg1181228:14+1425LDWWW
2FC Viktoria KölnFC Viktoria Köln1172230:15+1523WDDWW
3Rot-Weiß EssenRot-Weiß Essen1163219:13+621WLWDD
4FC SaarbrückenFC Saarbrücken1152426:20+617LWLDW
5Alemannia AachenAlemannia Aachen1152417:17017WWLLW
6FC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 041152415:16-117WWWLL
7Waldhof MannheimWaldhof Mannheim1151520:17+316WLLWW
8Hoffenheim IIHoffenheim II1151521:19+216LWLLW
9Hansa RostockHansa Rostock1144318:20-216DLLWD
10SV WehenSV Wehen1143419:16+315WDWWL
11Preußen MünsterPreußen Münster1143419:21-215WLLDL
12Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna Düsseldorf1143412:14-215DLWDL
13SV MeppenSV Meppen1142516:17-114WDWDL
14Stuttgart IIStuttgart II1142518:20-214LWWDD
15VerlVerl1133516:22-612LLDDW
16SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1133513:25-1212LWDLL
17Würzburger KickersWürzburger Kickers1132615:23-811LWDLL
18SSV Jahn RegensburgSSV Jahn Regensburg1124520:20010LDDWD
19Fortuna KölnFortuna Köln112458:12-410LLLDW
20HavelseHavelse1123616:25-99WDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1MSV DuisburgMSV Duisburg1128:1425
2FC Viktoria KölnFC Viktoria Köln1130:1523
3Rot-Weiß EssenRot-Weiß Essen1119:1321
4FC SaarbrückenFC Saarbrücken1126:2017
5Alemannia AachenAlemannia Aachen1117:1717
6FC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 041115:1617
7Waldhof MannheimWaldhof Mannheim1120:1716
8Hoffenheim IIHoffenheim II1121:1916
9Hansa RostockHansa Rostock1118:2016
10SV WehenSV Wehen1119:1615
11Preußen MünsterPreußen Münster1119:2115
12Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna Düsseldorf1112:1415
13SV MeppenSV Meppen1116:1714
14Stuttgart IIStuttgart II1118:2014
15VerlVerl1116:2212
16SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1113:2512
17Würzburger KickersWürzburger Kickers1115:2311
18SSV Jahn RegensburgSSV Jahn Regensburg1120:2010
19Fortuna KölnFortuna Köln118:1210
20HavelseHavelse1116:259
PromotionRelegation

About the FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen forecast

The forecasts for this 3. Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen in the 3. Liga table

In the 3. Liga table, Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd and FC Ingolstadt 04 6th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: FC Ingolstadt 04 15-16, Rot-Weiß Essen 19-13. The full standings are on the 3. Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.