FC Lugano vs FC Luzern Prediction

FC Lugano
4-0
Finished
HT 1-0
FC Luzern
Cornaredo, Lugano·Anojen Kanagasingam 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalHIGHModel58%SurpriseMediumGap-6.1%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseMediumGap+4.7%
FC Lugano Rest
8 days
FC Luzern Rest
7 days

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern: result, form and history

FC Lugano beat FC Luzern 4-0 in the Super League on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

FC Lugano have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
59%1.67
X
22%4.20
2
19%4.18
Double Chance
1X
81%1.20
X2
41%2.11
Both Teams to Score
Yes
71%1.40
No
29%2.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.67 + 1.08 = 3.75
Over 1.5
88%1.07
Over 2.5
73%1.33
Over 3.5
50%1.92
Under 1.5
12%7.00
Under 2.5
27%3.00
Under 3.5
50%1.85
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 3.8 = 10.7
Over 8.5
67%1.34
Over 9.5
57%1.59
Over 10.5
48%1.98
Under 8.5
33%2.92
Under 9.5
43%2.20
Under 10.5
52%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.6 = 4.3
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
43%-
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
57%-

Match Events

4'Behruzjon KarimovFoul
12'Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaAssist: Lars Lukas Mai
15'Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaFoul
35'Renato SteffenFoul
43'Stefan KnezevicFoul
45'Lars Lukas Mai INMartim Marques out
45'Bung Hua Freimann INPius Dorn out
57'Albian Ajeti INBeckham Castro out
57'Renato Steffen INDereck Moncada out
61'Rúben Dantas FernandesOG
66'Leonardo BertoneFoul
67'Tyron Owusu INNando Toggenburger out
67'Daniel Mikołajewski INLars Villiger out
74'Behruzjon Karimov INDamian Kelvin out
78'Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaAssist: Beckham Castro
79'Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb INLucas Manuel Silva Ferreira out
83'Mio Zimmermann INLevin Winkler out
83'Daniel Dos Santos Correia INAhmed Kendouci out
87'Dereck MoncadaAssist: David von Ballmoos

Lineups

FC Lugano
3-5-2Coach: M. Croci-Torti
FC Luzern
4-2-2-2Coach: J. Portmann
Avg rating7.34
Avg rating6.03
D. von Ballmoos7.916D. von Ballmoos
A. Papadopoulos7.36A. Papadopoulos
L. Mai8.217L. Mai
H. Delcroix7.73H. Delcroix
B. Karimov6.62B. Karimov
A. Grgić7.48A. Grgić
Y. Cimignani6.621Y. Cimignani
Daniel Dos Santos9.627D. Dos Santos
M. Zanotti7.046M. Zanotti
R. Steffen6.811R. Steffen
A. Ajeti6.69A. Ajeti
K. Letica6.030K. Letica
B. Freimann6.013B. Freimann
S. Knežević5.65S. Knežević
B. Freimann6.046B. Freimann
R. Fernandes4.922R. Fernandes
Mio Zimmermann6.180M. Zimmermann
L. Bertone5.86L. Bertone
T. Owusu5.924T. Owusu
M. Di Giusto6.711M. Di Giusto
O. tshikomb6.416O. tshikomb
D. Mikołajewski6.219D. Mikołajewski

FC Lugano Substitutes

28F. Gebhardt
7E. Alioski
18J. Bichsel
26Martim Marques45'for Lars Lukas Mai7.0
4D. Kelvin74'for Behruzjon Karimov7.2
14A. Kendouci83'for Daniel Dos Santos Correia6.8
30D. Moncada57'for Renato Steffen87'7.7
22B. Castro57'for Albian Ajeti7.3
91K. Behrens

FC Luzern Substitutes

1S. Simoni
20P. Dorn45'for Bung Hua Freimann6.3
21L. Lüthi
10Lucas Ferreira79'for Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb5.7
29Levin Winkler83'for Mio Zimmermann5.9
7A. Oehlers
27L. Villiger67'for Daniel Mikołajewski6.1
9A. Grbić
15N. Toggenburger67'for Tyron Owusu6.6

Match Stats

FC LuganoFC Luzern
60%Ball Possession40%
8Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards2
19Total Shots15
7Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal5
13Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box6
8Blocked Shots6
11Fouls9
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves4
548Total Passes365
478Passes Accurate284
9Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

FC LuganoFC Lugano
FC LuzernFC Luzern
1847Elo Rating 1614
3.77Attack 2.00
2.40Defense 0.80
100%Hit Rate 46%
17.8Shots per Game 18.4
6.1Shots on Target 6.2
5.4Corners per Game 5.3
2.9Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+233 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.75 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC LuganoFC Lugano
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
FC LuzernFC Luzern
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FC LuganoFC Lugano7Wins · 70%
Draws00%
FC LuzernFC Luzern3Wins · 30%
3.4Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Super League07/03/2026
FC LuganoFC Luzern
13
Super League17/01/2026
FC LuzernFC Lugano
25
Super League30/10/2025
FC LuganoFC Luzern
20
Super League04/05/2025
FC LuzernFC Lugano
02
Super League15/02/2025
FC LuganoFC Luzern
20
Super League07/12/2024
FC LuzernFC Lugano
14
Super League11/08/2024
FC LuganoFC Luzern
23
Super League03/03/2024
FC LuzernFC Lugano
01
Super League03/12/2023
FC LuganoFC Luzern
10
Super League03/09/2023
FC LuzernFC Lugano
32

Referee Profile

Anojen Kanagasingam126 matches

4.79Cards per match
4.54Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Anojen Kanagasingam4.79
Other referees4.76

4.79 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.76).

Cards come from 48 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Super League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC LuganoFC Lugano1091031:7+2428WWWDW
2BSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys1064033:18+1522WWDDW
3FC SionFC Sion1061323:17+619LDWWW
4FC ZurichFC Zurich1152420:23-317WWDWD
5Servette FCServette FC1151516:14+216WWLWW
6FC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen1051417:19-216WWLLW
7FC Basel 1893FC Basel 18931041517:20-313LLWLL
8FC LuzernFC Luzern1133518:24-612LLWLD
9FC ThunFC Thun1031617:27-1010LWLLL
10FC VaduzFC Vaduz1130822:23-19LWLLW
11GrasshoppersGrasshoppers1022613:26-138LLLWD
12LausanneLausanne101367:16-96LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC LuganoFC Lugano1031:728
2BSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys1033:1822
3FC SionFC Sion1023:1719
4FC ZurichFC Zurich1120:2317
5Servette FCServette FC1116:1416
6FC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen1017:1916
7FC Basel 1893FC Basel 18931017:2013
8FC LuzernFC Luzern1118:2412
9FC ThunFC Thun1017:2710
10FC VaduzFC Vaduz1122:239
11GrasshoppersGrasshoppers1013:268
12LausanneLausanne107:166
Relegation

About the FC Lugano vs FC Luzern forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Lugano and FC Luzern in the Super League table

In the Super League table, FC Lugano are 1st and FC Luzern 8th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: FC Lugano 31-7, FC Luzern 18-24. The full standings are on the Super League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

FC Lugano have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.