Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 1
Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí, Itagui· Carlos Ortega, Colombia 25/07/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
56%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.70SignalSOLIDModel59%RiskMediumGap-2.8%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.72SignalHIGHModel56%RiskMediumGap+11.9%
Independiente Medellin Rest
2 days
Deportivo Pasto Rest
3 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
156%1.70
X26%3.49
218%5.00
Double Chance
1X82%1.15
X244%2.06
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%1.95
No50%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 0.76 = 2.40
Over 1.573%1.33
Over 2.552%2.06
Over 3.529%3.52
Under 1.527%3.10
Under 2.548%1.72
Under 3.571%1.26
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.2 = 9
Over 8.551%1.83
Over 9.540%2.37
Over 10.529%3.25
Under 8.549%1.88
Under 9.560%1.50
Under 10.571%1.27
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.560%-
Over 4.539%-
Under 3.540%-
Under 4.561%-
Match Events
4'J. MenaAssist: H. Palacios
7'M. Garavito
30'S. CordobaAssist: H. Goyes
33'J. Varela
35'D. Chavez
36'H. Palacios
44'J. Micolta PiedahitaAssist: D. Chavez
46'M. Garavito INM. S. Jimenez out
46'G. Banguera INE. A. Cabezas Quinonez out
48'E. C. Serje Orozco
59'H. Palacios INJ. Cordoba out
59'H. Loboa INA. Martegani out
64'M. Gil INJ. Mendez out
64'J. Micolta Piedahita INM. Pisano out
65'J. Montano
72'M. S. Jimenez
77'D. Catano INB. Perlaza out
79'B. Perlaza
80'H. Mancilla INJ. Obregon out
90'J. Montano INK. Klinger out
90+3'A. Martegani
Lineups
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto
4-3-3Coach: Jonathan Risueno
1S. IchazoSalvador Ichazo
26E. MenaEsneyder Mena
39L. EscorciaLuis Escorcia
5J. VarelaJoaquin Varela
13J. MenaJhan Mena
16H. LoboaHalam Loboa
6D. MorenoDidier Moreno
30H. PalaciosHayen Palacios
10D. CatañoDaniel Cataño
20J. Edwin MontañoJohn Edwin Montaño
9J. MedinaJeison Medina
12G. BangueraGeovanni Banguera
33M. GaravitoMateo Garavito
36J. QuiñonesJulián Quiñones
3J. OssaJoyce Ossa
27H. GoyesHervin Goyes
15H. MancillaHarrinson Mancilla
8E. SerjeEnrique Serje
16M. GilMayer Gil
18J. MicoltaJoider Micolta
29S. CórdobaSantiago Córdoba
10D. ChávezDiego ChávezIndependiente Medellin Substitutes
70Juan CórdobaF
21Agustín MarteganiM
14Baldomero PerlazaM
34Keiner KlingerM
25Eder ChauxG
19Alfonso SimarraD
4Kevin MantillaD
24Nivaldo ErazoM
28Andrés DávilaF
Deportivo Pasto Substitutes
1Ederson CabezasG
6Santiago JiménezD
17John MéndezF
32Matías PisanoM
9Jorge ObregónF
11Andrés IbargüenF
22Yeison TolosaF
19Patrick PreciadoF
35Frank MartínezM
Match Stats
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto 44%Ball Possession56%
4Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards4
8Total Shots12
3Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal6
5Shots Inside Box6
3Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots2
18Fouls12
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves0
346Total Passes428
274Passes Accurate364
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Team Comparison
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto1640Elo Rating 1468
2.10Attack 1.19
1.93Defense 1.22
59%Hit Rate 27%
13.7Shots per Game 12.5
6.2Shots on Target 4.4
2.9Corners per Game 4.4
2.9Cards per Game 4.2
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+172 Elo
📈BTTS Trend23% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Independiente Medellin- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Deportivo Pasto- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Based on 5 historical meetings
Independiente Medellin 56%Draw 0%44% Deportivo Pasto
1.46Avg Goals
23%BTTS Rate
23%Over 2.5
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin2W2D1L
23/07/2026Independiente Medellin
Vasco DA Gama
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama22
D02/06/2026Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
Independiente MedellinCucuta21
W30/05/2026
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin11
D27/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin10
L21/05/2026
CuscoIndependiente Medellin
CuscoIndependiente Medellin23
WDeportivo Pasto0W0D5L
22/07/2026Deportivo Pasto
Bogota FC
Deportivo PastoBogota FC01
L14/05/2026Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo PastoDeportes Tolima02
L10/05/2026Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto
Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto10
L04/05/2026
JuniorDeportivo Pasto
JuniorDeportivo Pasto43
L24/04/2026Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
Deportivo PastoSanta Fe12
LReferee Profile
Carlos Ortega, Colombia · 64 matches analysed
6.1Avg Yellows
6.7Avg Cards
23.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 100% of referees analysed
League Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | LWWLW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | LWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDDWD |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | WLWDL |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | WLLDW |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | DDWDW |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | DWLDW |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | DDWLD |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | DWLWD |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | WDDDW |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | DLWLD |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LLWLW |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | DLLDD |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LLLWL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | LWDLL |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | LDDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20:5 | +15 | 20 | LWWLW |
| 2 | Millonarios | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15:8 | +7 | 19 | LWWLW |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | +11 | 18 | LWWLW |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | +5 | 16 | DDWLD |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12:10 | +2 | 16 | WLWDL |
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12:8 | +4 | 14 | WDDDW |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12:9 | +3 | 13 | WLLDW |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 12 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 12 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Águilas Doradas | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:12 | 0 | 11 | DWLWD |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 11 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:15 | -2 | 11 | DDWDW |
| 13 | Cucuta | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:15 | -6 | 9 | LWDLL |
| 14 | Fortaleza FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:16 | -8 | 8 | DLLDD |
| 16 | Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:18 | -11 | 8 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Jaguares | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9:14 | -5 | 7 | LLWLW |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:11 | -5 | 7 | LDDLL |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 5 | WDDWD |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 3 | LWLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 9 | 20:5 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 11 | 15:8 | 19 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 7 | 17:6 | 18 |
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 8 | 15:10 | 16 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 9 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 8 | 12:8 | 14 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 8 | 12:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 8 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 9 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 10 | Águilas Doradas | 8 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 9 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 10 | 13:15 | 11 |
| 13 | Cucuta | 9 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza FC | 9 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 9 | 8:16 | 8 |
| 16 | Chico | 9 | 7:18 | 8 |
| 17 | Jaguares | 8 | 9:14 | 7 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 8 | 6:11 | 7 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 9 | 8:15 | 5 |
| 20 | Junior | 7 | 8:13 | 3 |
Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction
Our AI model has analysed this Primera A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Primera A
ScorePredicts covers Colombia football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.
Key Factors for This Match
Independiente Medellin and Deportivo Pasto have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.46 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.