Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva Prediction

Samara Arena, Samara 11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.26
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-2.3%
Value Analysis
53%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.93
SignalNEUTRALModel53%SurpriseMediumGap+3.1%
Krylia Sovetov Rest
6 days
Rodina Moskva Rest
5 days

Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva: the result in context

Krylia Sovetov beat Rodina Moskva 2-1 in the Premier League on 11 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Krylia Sovetov had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Rodina Moskva.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.93
X
24%3.66
2
22%3.85
Double Chance
1X
78%1.26
X2
46%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%1.67
No
62%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.69 = 2.37
Over 1.5
70%1.22
Over 2.5
48%1.79
Over 3.5
25%2.80
Under 1.5
30%3.83
Under 2.5
52%2.06
Under 3.5
75%1.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.5 = 8.7
Over 8.5
31%1.50
Over 9.5
5%1.87
Over 10.5
5%2.42
Under 8.5
69%2.34
Under 9.5
95%1.86
Under 10.5
95%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 4
Over 3.5
56%-
Over 4.5
37%-
Under 3.5
44%-
Under 4.5
63%-

Match Events

35'Artem SokolFoul
45'Leo Goglichidze INIlya Dyatlov out
58'Denis Makarov INDominik Oroz out
58'Amar Rahmanović INVitaliy Shitov out
59'Ivan Timoshenko
64'Martin KramaričAssist: Vitaliy Shitov
65'Iker PozoDissent
65'Nikita ChernovFoul
69'Nikolay Rasskazov INNikita Saltykov out
69'Maksim Vityugov INKirill Stolbov out
69'Astemir Gordyushenko INBrian Mansilla out
69'Artem Maksimenko INSoltmurad Bakaev out
73'Yordy ReynaFoul
74'Iker Pozo INRuslan Fishchenko out
81'Leon Musaev INAndrey Egorychev out
82'Martin Kramarič INKazbek Mukailov out
87'Artem MeshchaninovFoul
88'Kirill StolbovAssist: Vitaliy Shitov
90+3'Mickael NadeFoul

Lineups

Krylia Sovetov
4-1-4-1Coach: S. Bulatov
Rodina Moskva
4-4-2Coach: Juan Díaz
Avg rating6.70
Avg rating6.25
N. Kokarev7.080N. Kokarev
N. Rasskazov6.115N. Rasskazov
N. Chernov6.423N. Chernov
S. Bozhin6.947S. Bozhin
Y. Gorshkov6.74Y. Gorshkov
Fernando Costanza6.622F. Costanza
D. Makarov6.677D. Makarov
M. Kramarič7.610M. Kramarič
M. Vityugov6.88M. Vityugov
K. Pechenin6.62K. Pechenin
A. Rahmanović6.411A. Rahmanović
S. Volkov6.813S. Volkov
A. Sokol6.088A. Sokol
A. Meshchaninov5.926A. Meshchaninov
M. Nadé6.675M. Nadé
L. Goglichidze5.63L. Goglichidze
A. Gordyushenko5.772A. Gordyushenko
L. Musaev6.338L. Musaev
Iker Pozo6.58I. Pozo
A. Maksimenko5.89A. Maksimenko
Y. Reyna6.410Y. Reyna
I. Timoshenko7.899I. Timoshenko

Krylia Sovetov Substitutes

7M. Banjac
67Kazbek Mukailov82'for Martin Kramarič6.5
14N. Saltykov69'for Nikolay Rasskazov6.2
73V. Shitov58'for Amar Rahmanović7.0
5D. Oroz58'for Denis Makarov6.5
97I. Akhmetov
17I. Chesnokov
72Dani Fernández
20K. Stolbov69'for Maksim Vityugov88'7.5
39E. Frolov
3T. Galdames
18I. Lepskiy

Rodina Moskva Substitutes

17S. Bakaev69'for Artem Maksimenko6.2
80S. Bessmertny
49I. Dyatlov45'for Leo Goglichidze6.0
5A. Egorychev81'for Leon Musaev6.1
6R. Fishchenko74'for Iker Pozo6.1
77A. Gharibyan
55M. Križan
11B. Mansilla69'for Astemir Gordyushenko6.3
19D. Tananeev
23K. Ushatov
18M. Abdusalamov
1S. Aydarov

Match Stats

Krylia SovetovRodina Moskva
55%Ball Possession45%
3Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards5
19Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal6
9Shots off Goal7
13Shots Inside Box10
6Shots Outside Box7
6Blocked Shots4
9Fouls19
1Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
459Total Passes360
356Passes Accurate273
78%Pass Accuracy76%

Team Comparison

Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov
Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
1505Elo Rating 1449
0.91Attack 1.30
1.50Defense 0.51
14%Hit Rate 0%
19.7Shots per Game 12.3
6.0Shots on Target 4.6
6.0Corners per Game 4.6
1.5Cards per Game 3.5

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
2W1D7L
06/09/2026
Dinamo MakhachkalaRodina Moskva
20
L
02/09/2026
Spartak MoscowRodina Moskva
31
L
30/08/2026
Rodina MoskvaBaltika
03
L
23/08/2026
DynamoRodina Moskva
31
L
18/08/2026
Rodina MoskvaFC Orenburg
14
L
15/08/2026
Rodina MoskvaAkron
33
D
09/08/2026
ZenitRodina Moskva
12
W
04/08/2026
Rodina MoskvaRubin
50
W
31/07/2026
Rodina MoskvaFC Rostov
24
L
25/07/2026
Spartak MoscowRodina Moskva
30
L

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1DynamoDynamo1181218:9+925WWWWW
2ZenitZenit1180325:13+1224WWWWL
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1172221:8+1323WDWWL
4CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1164119:12+722LWWDW
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1164119:13+622DLDDD
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1127213:12+113DWDLD
7BaltikaBaltika1134414:12+213DDLDL
8Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1141616:21-513DLLLW
9FC RostovFC Rostov1133511:17-612DWLLW
10RubinRubin1126312:16-412LLDDD
11Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1126315:17-212LDDWD
12LokomotivLokomotiv1125416:14+211DWDLW
13AkhmatAkhmat1125415:16-111LDLWD
14AkronAkron1116412:20-89DLWDD
15FakelFakel111378:19-116WLLDL
16Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1113712:27-156DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1DynamoDynamo1118:925
2ZenitZenit1125:1324
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1121:823
4CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1119:1222
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1119:1322
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1113:1213
7BaltikaBaltika1114:1213
8Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1116:2113
9FC RostovFC Rostov1111:1712
10RubinRubin1112:1612
11Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1115:1712
12LokomotivLokomotiv1116:1411
13AkhmatAkhmat1115:1611
14AkronAkron1112:209
15FakelFakel118:196
16Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1112:276
Relegation

About the Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Krylia Sovetov and Rodina Moskva in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Krylia Sovetov are 11th and Rodina Moskva 16th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Krylia Sovetov 15-17, Rodina Moskva 12-27. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Krylia Sovetov and Rodina Moskva have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.