Zenit vs Rodina Moskva Prediction

Zenit
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Rodina Moskva
Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg·Igor Kaplenkov, Russia 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.42
SignalGOODModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+4.1%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.42
SignalHIGHModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+10.4%
Zenit Rest
3 days
Rodina Moskva Rest
4 days

Zenit vs Rodina Moskva: the result in context

Rodina Moskva beat Zenit 2-1 in the Premier League on 9 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Zenit had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Rodina Moskva.

Zenit tend to win more corners, 7.0 a game to 4.6 for Rodina Moskva.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
75%1.18
X
14%7.80
2
11%14.89
Double Chance
1X
89%1.02
X2
25%5.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.09
No
47%1.66
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.54 + 0.76 = 3.30
Over 1.5
88%1.10
Over 2.5
75%1.42
Over 3.5
43%2.15
Under 1.5
12%5.63
Under 2.5
25%2.67
Under 3.5
57%1.71
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.2 + 2.8 = 10
Over 8.5
62%1.50
Over 9.5
50%1.85
Over 10.5
39%2.35
Under 8.5
38%2.37
Under 9.5
50%1.85
Under 10.5
61%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 2.5 = 3.8
Over 3.5
47%2.12
Over 4.5
31%-
Under 3.5
53%1.63
Under 4.5
69%-

Match Events

23'M. Glushenkov
30'Wendel
41'D. Tananeev
46'I. Timoshenko INA. Gharibyan out
46'M. Abdusalamov INS. Bakaev out
49'R. Fishchenko INL. Musaev out
59'A. GharibyanAssist: S. Bessmertniy
63'Felipe Augusto INLuiz Henrique out
65'A. GharibyanAssist: S. Bakaev
74'I. Pozo INA. Egorychev out
77'Gustavo Mantuan INA. Erokhin out
77'W. Barrios INDouglas Santos out
84'A. Maksimenko INB. Mansilla out
87'Wendel INK. Andrade out
87'Nino INN. Alip out

Lineups

Zenit
4-2-3-1Coach: Sergey Semak
Rodina Moskva
4-4-2Coach: Juan Diaz
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating6.81
Denis Adamov6.216D. Adamov
Gustavo Mantuan6.331G. Mantuan
Igor Diveev6.678I. Diveev
Nino7.733Nino
Román Vega7.266R. Vega
Wílmar BarriosC6.95W. Barrios
Wendel7.28Wendel
Maksim Glushenkov7.910M. Glushenkov
Felipe Augusto6.39F. Augusto
Pedro6.920Pedro
Aleksandr Sobolev6.77A. Sobolev
Sergey Volkov7.713S. Volkov
Stanislav Bessmertniy6.980S. Bessmertniy
Dmitriy Tananeev6.719D. Tananeev
Artem MeshchaninovC6.526A. Meshchaninov
Leo Goglichidze6.63L. Goglichidze
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov6.918M. Abdusalamov
Ruslan Fishchenko6.26R. Fishchenko
Iker Pozo6.98I. Pozo
Artem Maksimenko6.29A. Maksimenko
Ivan Timoshenko6.299I. Timoshenko
Yordy Reyna7.310Y. Reyna

Zenit Substitutes

11Luiz Henrique63'for Felipe Augusto7.2
57Bogdan Moskvichev
71Daniil Odoevskiy
28Nuraly Alip87'for Nino
6Vanja Drkušić
3Douglas Santos77'for W. Barrios6.7
15Vyacheslav Karavaev
4Yuriy Gorshkov
25Kevin Andrade87'for Wendel
21Alexandr Erokhin77'for Gustavo Mantuan6.5
17Andrey Mostovoy
61Daniil Kondakov

Rodina Moskva Substitutes

17Soltmurad Bakaev46'for M. Abdusalamov6.6
77Artur Gharibyan46'for I. Timoshenko59'65'8.9
38Leon Musaev49'for R. Fishchenko6.6
1Sergey Aydarov
71Ilya Svinov
49Ilya Dyatlov
11Brian Mansilla84'for A. Maksimenko6.3
5Andrey Egorychev74'for I. Pozo6.5
23Kirill Ushatov
72Astemir Gordyushenko
55Mitja Križan
95Kerfala Cissoko

Match Stats

ZenitRodina Moskva
66%Ball Possession34%
11Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
21Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal3
12Shots off Goal3
13Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots1
9Fouls12
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
480Total Passes255
422Passes Accurate197
88%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

ZenitZenit
Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
1768Elo Rating 1449
2.63Attack 1.30
1.37Defense 0.51
100%Hit Rate 0%
14.3Shots per Game 12.3
6.0Shots on Target 4.6
7.0Corners per Game 4.6
2.5Cards per Game 3.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+319 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.3 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ZenitZenit
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.9 in first half)
Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

ZenitZenit
8W2D0L
05/08/2026
ZenitBaltika
10
W
02/08/2026
FC OrenburgZenit
03
W
25/07/2026
AkronZenit
05
W
18/07/2026
ZenitSpartak Moscow
4121
W
13/07/2026
ZenitDinamo Makhachkala
11
D
12/07/2026
ZenitFK Crvena Zvezda
31
W
08/07/2026
ZenitNeftchi
41
W
05/07/2026
ZenitGimnasia L.P.
11
D
01/07/2026
ZenitDinamo Makhachkala
20
W
17/05/2026
FC RostovZenit
01
W
Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
5W1D4L
04/08/2026
Rodina MoskvaRubin
50
W
31/07/2026
Rodina MoskvaFC Rostov
24
L
25/07/2026
Spartak MoscowRodina Moskva
30
L
02/07/2026
Rodina MoskvaAkron
05
L
27/06/2026
LokomotivRodina Moskva
00
D
16/05/2026
Arsenal TulaRodina Moskva
14
W
08/05/2026
Rodina MoskvaChelyabinsk
20
W
02/05/2026
ChernomoretsRodina Moskva
13
W
26/04/2026
Rodina MoskvaFC UFA
10
W
22/04/2026
Rotor VolgogradRodina Moskva
20
L

Referee Profile

Igor Kaplenkov3 matches analysed

3.79Cards per match
3.60Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 9% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1DynamoDynamo1181218:9+925WWWWW
2ZenitZenit1180325:13+1224WWWWL
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1172221:8+1323WDWWL
4CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1164119:12+722LWWDW
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1164119:13+622DLDDD
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1127213:12+113DWDLD
7BaltikaBaltika1134414:12+213DDLDL
8Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1141616:21-513DLLLW
9FC RostovFC Rostov1133511:17-612DWLLW
10RubinRubin1126312:16-412LLDDD
11Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1126315:17-212LDDWD
12LokomotivLokomotiv1125416:14+211DWDLW
13AkhmatAkhmat1125415:16-111LDLWD
14AkronAkron1116412:20-89DLWDD
15FakelFakel111378:19-116WLLDL
16Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1113712:27-156DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1DynamoDynamo1118:925
2ZenitZenit1125:1324
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1121:823
4CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1119:1222
5FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1119:1322
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1113:1213
7BaltikaBaltika1114:1213
8Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1116:2113
9FC RostovFC Rostov1111:1712
10RubinRubin1112:1612
11Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1115:1712
12LokomotivLokomotiv1116:1411
13AkhmatAkhmat1115:1611
14AkronAkron1112:209
15FakelFakel118:196
16Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1112:276
Relegation

About the Zenit vs Rodina Moskva forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Zenit and Rodina Moskva in the Premier League table

The table shows a wide gap: Zenit are 2nd in the Premier League, while Rodina Moskva sit 16th, 18 points behind. League goal record so far: Zenit 25-13, Rodina Moskva 12-27. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Zenit and Rodina Moskva have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.