North Texas vs Real Monarchs Prediction
USA · Group Stage
Choctaw Stadium 05/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.33
SignalGOODModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-1.6%
North Texas Rest
7 days
Real Monarchs Rest
4 days
North Texas vs Real Monarchs: the result in context
North Texas beat Real Monarchs 4-1 in the MLS Next Pro on 5 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: North Texas had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Real Monarchs.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.3 a game across 8 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
155%2.08
X21%3.60
224%2.80
Double Chance
1X76%1.33
X245%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes65%1.44
No35%2.54
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.42 + 1.28 = 3.70
Over 1.590%1.12
Over 2.577%1.50
Over 3.557%2.21
Under 1.510%4.90
Under 2.523%2.38
Under 3.543%1.58
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
5'L. ReamAssist: N. Silva
17'A. Riquelme
38'R. Mesalles
46'N. James IND. Garcia out
46'R. Mesalles INI. Murphy out
46'L. Ream INL. O'Gara out
48'N. SimmondsAssist: D. Garcia
57'D. GarciaAssist: R. Louis
63'L. Goncalves
64'H. Sargis ING. Villa out
64'N. Silva INL. Djiro out
65'C. SwannAssist: E. Nys
69'L. Goncalves INL. Vejrostek out
69'L. Martins INI. Charles out
74'I. Murphy
81'R. Louis INM. Luccin out
83'Alvaro AugustoAssist: E. Nys
85'C. Swann INU. Pela out
87'I. Charles
Lineups
North TexasReal Monarchs
Coach: Mark LowryNorth Texas Starting XI
57N. Montoya
29E. Newman
22Alvaro Augusto83'
26S. Starnes
14L. Goncalves63'69'replaced by L. Vejrostek
15R. Louis81'replaced by M. Luccin
27C. Swann65'85'replaced by U. Pela
32L. Martins69'replaced by I. Charles
11N. James46'replaced by D. Garcia
16N. Simmonds48'
10E. Nys
Real Monarchs Starting XI
99R. Alphin
47F. Ewald
64D. Kropp
77R. Mesalles38'46'replaced by I. Murphy
88L. Ream5'46'replaced by L. O'Gara
61I. Amparo
84H. Sargis64'replaced by G. Villa
30O. Anderson
45N. Silva64'replaced by L. Djiro
38A. Riquelme17'
91Z. Lifferth
North Texas Substitutes
13E. Dymora
12J. Biggar
25J. Gibson
53L. Vejrostek69'for L. Goncalves
6U. Pela85'for C. Swann
50D. Garcia46'for N. James57'
4I. Charles69'for L. Martins87'
19M. Luccin81'for R. Louis
23S. Sedeh
Real Monarchs Substitutes
24M. Kerkvliet
55G. Calderon
41G. Villa64'for H. Sargis
37L. Rivera
46I. Murphy46'for R. Mesalles74'
50L. Djiro64'for N. Silva
76L. O'Gara46'for L. Ream
Team Comparison
North TexasReal Monarchs1449Elo Rating 1382
1.46Attack 1.13
1.57Defense 1.29
17%Hit Rate 41%
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.7 goals
📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
North Texas- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.3 in first half)
Real Monarchs- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings, all competitions
North Texas4Wins · 50%Draws225%
Real Monarchs2Wins · 25%
2Wins · 25%3.3Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
75%3+ goals6 of 8
Previous meetings
01/03/2026Real MonarchsNorth Texas4232
28/09/2025North TexasReal Monarchs24
01/07/2024Real MonarchsNorth Texas12
25/05/2024North TexasReal Monarchs21
13/08/2023Real MonarchsNorth Texas4121
22/04/2023North TexasReal Monarchs01
13/08/2022North TexasReal Monarchs40
21/05/2022Real MonarchsNorth Texas03
Recent Form
North Texas6W0D4L
29/08/2026
St. Louis City IINorth Texas
St. Louis City IINorth Texas7181
W23/08/2026North Texas
Minnesota United II
North TexasMinnesota United II5141
W20/08/2026North Texas
Austin II
North TexasAustin II3010
W16/08/2026North Texas
Portland Timbers II
North TexasPortland Timbers II03
L09/08/2026North Texas
Tacoma Defiance
North TexasTacoma Defiance31
W01/08/2026
Ventura CountyNorth Texas
26/07/2026Ventura CountyNorth Texas61
LNorth Texas
Los Angeles FC II1242
L19/07/2026
The TownNorth Texas01
W12/07/2026
Colorado Rapids IINorth Texas10
L05/07/2026North TexasSt. Louis City II
North TexasSt. Louis City II30
WReal Monarchs3W0D7L
31/08/2026Real MonarchsTacoma Defiance
24/08/2026Real MonarchsTacoma Defiance30
WColorado Rapids IIReal Monarchs41
L09/08/2026
Houston Dynamo FC IIReal Monarchs30
L03/08/2026St. Louis City IIReal Monarchs30
L26/07/2026Portland Timbers IIReal Monarchs10
L20/07/2026Real MonarchsTacoma Defiance24
L12/07/2026Real Monarchs
Vancouver Whitecaps II
06/07/2026Real MonarchsVancouver Whitecaps II21
WLos Angeles FC IIReal Monarchs8292
W28/06/2026Ventura CountyReal Monarchs31
L22/06/2026Tacoma DefianceReal Monarchs
Tacoma DefianceReal Monarchs10
LLeague Table
Pacific Division
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Timbers II | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37:29 | +8 | 57 | DDDWD |
| 2 | Ventura County | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 58:36 | +22 | 53 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 50:48 | +2 | 45 | LWDLL |
| 4 | The Town | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 51:36 | +15 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 5 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 40:44 | -4 | 41 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 38:55 | -17 | 33 | WDLLW |
| 7 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 39:62 | -23 | 27 | LLDWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Timbers II | 28 | 37:29 | 57 |
| 2 | Ventura County | 28 | 58:36 | 53 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC II | 28 | 50:48 | 45 |
| 4 | The Town | 28 | 51:36 | 42 |
| 5 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 6 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 38:55 | 33 |
| 7 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 28 | 39:62 | 27 |
Frontier Division
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin II | 28 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 54:21 | +33 | 65 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 53:33 | +20 | 52 | LDWLL |
| 3 | Minnesota United II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 43:39 | +4 | 45 | WDWWW |
| 4 | St. Louis City II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:40 | +2 | 44 | LDWDD |
| 5 | North Texas | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:41 | +1 | 40 | LDLWD |
| 6 |  Sporting KC II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 36:75 | -39 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids II | 28 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 28:52 | -24 | 21 | WLLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin II | 28 | 54:21 | 65 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 28 | 53:33 | 52 |
| 3 | Minnesota United II | 28 | 43:39 | 45 |
| 4 | St. Louis City II | 28 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 5 | North Texas | 28 | 42:41 | 40 |
| 6 | Sporting KC II | 28 | 36:75 | 23 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids II | 28 | 28:52 | 21 |
Eastern Conference — Group 2
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin II | 28 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 54:21 | +33 | 65 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 28 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 37:29 | +8 | 57 | DDDWD |
| 3 | Ventura County | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 58:36 | +22 | 53 | LWWDW |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 28 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 53:33 | +20 | 52 | LDWLL |
| 5 | Minnesota United II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 43:39 | +4 | 45 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 50:48 | +2 | 45 | LWDLL |
| 7 | St. Louis City II | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:40 | +2 | 44 | LDWDD |
| 8 | The Town | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 51:36 | +15 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 40:44 | -4 | 41 | DLWLW |
| 10 | North Texas | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 42:41 | +1 | 40 | LDLWD |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 38:55 | -17 | 33 | WDLLW |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 28 | 10 | 0 | 18 | 39:62 | -23 | 27 | LLDWW |
| 13 | Sporting KC II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 36:75 | -39 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 28 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 28:52 | -24 | 21 | WLLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin II | 28 | 54:21 | 65 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 28 | 37:29 | 57 |
| 3 | Ventura County | 28 | 58:36 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 28 | 53:33 | 52 |
| 5 | Minnesota United II | 28 | 43:39 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 28 | 50:48 | 45 |
| 7 | St. Louis City II | 28 | 42:40 | 44 |
| 8 | The Town | 28 | 51:36 | 42 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 10 | North Texas | 28 | 42:41 | 40 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 28 | 38:55 | 33 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 28 | 39:62 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting KC II | 28 | 36:75 | 23 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 28 | 28:52 | 21 |
Promotion
Explore more predictions
This match
More MLS Next Pro matches
- Houston Dynamo FC II vs Austin II 05/09/26
- Inter Miami II vs Orlando City II 05/09/26
- Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II 05/09/26
- Toronto II vs FC Cincinnati II 05/09/26
- Minnesota United II vs Colorado Rapids II 06/09/26
- Sporting KC II vs St. Louis City II 06/09/26
- Los Angeles FC II vs Ventura County 06/09/26
- Portland Timbers II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II 07/09/26
About the North Texas vs Real Monarchs forecast
The forecasts for this MLS Next Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
North Texas and Real Monarchs in the MLS Next Pro table
North Texas and Real Monarchs are close in the MLS Next Pro table, 10th and 11th, with 7 points between them. League goal record so far: North Texas 42-41, Real Monarchs 38-55. The full standings are on the MLS Next Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.