Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa Prediction

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg· Omar Abdulkadir Artan, Somalia 12/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
8.2 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.73
SignalHIGHModel55%RiskMediumGap+10.6%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
4 days
Aston Villa Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.73
X
20%3.90
2
16%4.60
Double Chance
1X
84%1.19
X2
36%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.75
No
52%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.88 + 0.8 = 3.68
Over 1.5
92%1.25
Over 2.5
78%1.80
Over 3.5
69%3.00
Under 1.5
8%3.85
Under 2.5
22%2.02
Under 3.5
31%1.38
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

20'K. KvaratskheliaAssist: D. Doue
45'B. MadjoAssist: J. McGinn
46'M. Akliouche INO. Dembele out
51'P. TorresRoughing
61'D. DoueAssist: O. Dembele
64'Joao GomesTripping
72'B. Madjo INT. Abraham out
72'B. Kamara INL. Bogarde out
72'J. McGinnUnsportsmanlike conduct
73'J. McGinn INAlysson out
75'J. Neves INF. Ruiz out
75'N. Mendes INL. Hernandez out
79'P. Torres INT. Mings out
79'Joao Gomes INR. Barkley out
87'D. Doue INS. Mayulu out
88'K. Kvaratskhelia INL. Beraldo out

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
Coach: Enrique Luis
Aston Villa
Coach: Unai Emery

Paris Saint Germain Starting XI

39Matvey SafonovG
2Achraf HakimiD
5MarquinhosD
51Willian PachoD
25Nuno MendesD
33Warren Zaïre-EmeryM
17VitinhaM
87João NevesM
14Désiré DouéF
11Maghnes AklioucheF
7Khvicha KvaratskheliaF

Aston Villa Starting XI

40Marco BizotG
2Matty CashD
3Victor LindelöfD
14Pau TorresD
22Ian MaatsenD
8Boubacar KamaraM
35João GomesM
7John McGinnM
10Emiliano BuendíaM
53George HemmingsM
39Brian MadjoF

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

10Ousmane DembéléF
21Lucas HernándezD
8Fabián RuizM
24Senny MayuluM
4Lucas BeraldoD
30Lucas ChevalierG
6Ilya ZabarnyiD
12Lucas DigneD
27Dro FernándezM
49Ibrahim MbayeF
29Bradley BarcolaF
47Quentin NdjantouF

Aston Villa Substitutes

26Lamare BogardeM
18Tammy AbrahamF
47AlyssonF
5Tyrone MingsD
6Ross BarkleyM
42James WrightG
60Owen AsemotaG
32Kosta NedeljkovićD
48Modou Kéba CisséD
45Triston RoweD
49Bradley BurrowesM
74Luka LynchF

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
61%Ball Possession39%
0Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal8
7Shots Inside Box14
5Shots Outside Box1
1Blocked Shots3
11Fouls13
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves4
588Total Passes369
525Passes Accurate289
89%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Aston VillaAston Villa
1960Elo Rating 1844
2.45Attack 0.96
1.77Defense 1.27
50%Hit Rate 23%
22.2Shots per Game 11.0
8.4Shots on Target 3.6
5.5Corners per Game 4.2
1.2Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+117 Elo
High Goal Expectancy3.67 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Aston VillaAston Villa
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)

Head to Head

Based on 2 historical meetings

Paris Saint Germain 46%Draw 0%54% Aston Villa
4.54Avg Goals
100%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
2W1D2L
08/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainManchester United
11
D
05/08/2026
MallorcaParis Saint Germain
30
L
30/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainArsenal
4131
W
17/05/2026
Paris FCParis Saint Germain
21
L
13/05/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
02
W
Aston VillaAston Villa
2W0D3L
07/08/2026
Bayern MünchenAston Villa
21
L
04/08/2026
BG Pathum UnitedAston Villa
13
W
28/07/2026
Aston VillaReal Sociedad
24
L
25/07/2026
FC PortoAston Villa
21
L
21/07/2026
WalsallAston Villa
05
W

Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa Prediction

As a knockout-stage UEFA Super Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Super Cup

ScorePredicts covers UEFA Super Cup across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.2 out of 10 by our context model. Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Paris Saint Germain and Aston Villa have met 2 times recently, averaging 4.54 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.