Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista· Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil 23/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalSOLIDModel52%RiskMediumGap0.0%
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.74
SignalGOODModel49%RiskMediumGap+11.4%
Sao Paulo Rest
52 days
Atletico Paranaense Rest
11 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%2.00
X
28%3.25
2
20%3.94
Double Chance
1X
80%1.25
X2
48%1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.93
No
50%1.82
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 0.96 = 2.35
Over 1.5
70%1.38
Over 2.5
44%2.21
Over 3.5
22%4.20
Under 1.5
30%2.95
Under 2.5
56%1.65
Under 3.5
78%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 4.2 = 10.4
Over 8.5
61%1.33
Over 9.5
50%1.60
Over 10.5
36%1.99
Under 8.5
39%2.86
Under 9.5
50%2.18
Under 10.5
64%1.74
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.6 = 4.1
Over 3.5
60%1.29
Over 4.5
42%1.54
Under 3.5
40%3.27
Under 4.5
58%2.33

Match Events

18'Arthur Dias
19'Artur
23'R. Toloi INLuis Osorio out
46'Arthur Dias INC. Teran out
46'Joao Cruz INClaudinho out
46'Leozinho
51'LeozinhoAssist: L. Esquivel
64'Pablo Maia INFerreira out
64'Jonathan Calleri INAndre Silva out
74'D. Bobadilla INDanielzinho out
75'Lucas Ramon INVictor Sa out
76'Leozinho INIsaac out
83'Gilberto INGilberto Junior out

Lineups

Sao Paulo
4-3-3Coach: Junior Dorival
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Coach: Joao Correia
Rafael23RafaelRafael
Lucas Ramon19L. RamonLucas Ramon
Robert Arboleda5R. ArboledaRobert Arboleda
Rafael Tolói2R. TolóiRafael Tolói
Wendell18WendellWendell
Damián Bobadilla16D. BobadillaDamián Bobadilla
Pablo Maia29P. MaiaPablo Maia
Marcos Antônio8M. AntônioMarcos Antônio
Artur37ArturArtur
Jonathan Calleri9J. CalleriJonathan Calleri
Luciano10LucianoLuciano
Santos23SantosSantos
Arthur Dias4A. DiasArthur Dias
Juan Felipe Aguirre33J. Felipe AguirreJuan Felipe Aguirre
Lucas Esquivel37L. EsquivelLucas Esquivel
Gilberto12GilbertoGilberto
Jádson16JádsonJádson
Luiz Gustavo14L. GustavoLuiz Gustavo
Steven Mendoza7S. MendozaSteven Mendoza
Leozinho21LeozinhoLeozinho
João Cruz8J. CruzJoão Cruz
Kevin Viveros9K. ViverosKevin Viveros

Sao Paulo Substitutes

54Luis OsorioD
11FerreirinhaF
17André SilvaF
94DanielzinhoM
27Victor SáF
31Carlos CoronelG
56Nicolas BosshardtD
53IsacD
34TetêF
48Djhordney FerreiraM
80CaulyM
43Gustavo SantanaM

Atletico Paranaense Substitutes

22Carlos TeránD
26ClaudinhoD
11IsaacF
2Gilberto JuniorD
42Matheus SoaresG
6Leonardo DerikD
3LéoD
27Juan PortillaM
63Diogo RiquelmeM
53DuduM
70Renan Peixoto NepomucenoF
19Jorge RivaldoF

Match Stats

Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense
70%Ball Possession30%
7Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal6
6Shots Inside Box8
12Shots Outside Box3
8Blocked Shots2
7Fouls15
1Goalkeeper Saves2
629Total Passes263
570Passes Accurate211
91%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

Sao PauloSao Paulo
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
1665Elo Rating 1720
0.88Attack 2.26
1.94Defense 0.45
31%Hit Rate 17%
13.7Shots per Game 13.4
4.2Shots on Target 5.9
6.6Corners per Game 3.9
1.6Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend73% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Sao Paulo 59%Draw 14%27% Atletico Paranaense
2.32Avg Goals
73%BTTS Rate
59%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Sao PauloSao Paulo
1W2D2L
01/06/2026
RemoSao Paulo
10
L
27/05/2026
Sao PauloBoston River
20
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D
20/05/2026
Sao PauloMillonarios
11
D
17/05/2026
FluminenseSao Paulo
21
L
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
2W1D2L
11/07/2026
RB BragantinoAtletico Paranaense
21
L
09/07/2026
Boca JuniorsAtletico Paranaense
10
L
30/05/2026
Atletico ParanaenseMirassol
10
W
18/05/2026
Atletico ParanaenseFlamengo
11
D
15/05/2026
Atletico GoianienseAtletico Paranaense
1040
W

Referee Profile

Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil · 27 matches analysed

5.1Avg Yellows
5.5Avg Cards
29.0Avg Fouls
Stricter than 90% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras28169347:21+2657DWDDW
3FluminenseFluminense28139644:36+848WLWDW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
5BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
6CruzeiroCruzeiro28136942:40+245WLWLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG27117936:32+440DWLWD
8SantosSantos27108941:40+138WWWWD
9CoritibaCoritiba281081037:43-638LDLWW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
11Sao PauloSao Paulo271061132:30+236WLWWL
12BotafogoBotafogo28981141:45-435LWDDL
13VitoriaVitoria28961328:42-1433LDWLL
14CorinthiansCorinthians28881229:32-332LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol28881233:42-932WDWLD
16Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama27871234:41-731WWLWL
17GremioGremio28781330:38-829DLLLW
18InternacionalInternacional286101230:36-628LWLLD
19RemoRemo28581532:47-1523LLLLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc27391529:53-2418DLWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2847:2157
3FluminenseFluminense2844:3648
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
5BahiaBahia2742:3346
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2842:4045
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2736:3240
8SantosSantos2741:4038
9CoritibaCoritiba2837:4338
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
11Sao PauloSao Paulo2732:3036
12BotafogoBotafogo2841:4535
13VitoriaVitoria2828:4233
14CorinthiansCorinthians2829:3232
15MirassolMirassol2833:4232
16Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2734:4131
17GremioGremio2830:3829
18InternacionalInternacional2830:3628
19RemoRemo2832:4723
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2729:5318
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Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Sao Paulo and Atletico Paranaense have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.32 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.