Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi Prediction

Shinnik Yaroslavl
2-2
Finished
HT 1-0
FC Sochi
Stadion Shinnik, Yaroslavl·R. Ziyakov 12/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.69
SignalSOLIDModel32%SurpriseHighGap+5.7%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Rest
12 days
FC Sochi Rest
9 days

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi: the result in context

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi drew 2-2 in the First League on 12 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee R. Ziyakov averages 5.50 cards a game, 0.90 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%3.38
X
27%3.38
2
31%2.08
Double Chance
1X
69%1.74
X2
58%1.24
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.89
No
56%1.81
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
64%1.33
Over 2.5
38%2.18
Over 3.5
18%3.86
Under 1.5
36%2.92
Under 2.5
62%1.69
Under 3.5
82%1.21
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

14'I. Porokhov
47'V. Karpov
56'A. Osipov
60'R. Ezhov
61'D. Samoylov IND. Martovoy out
61'A. Gongapshev INA. Antonov out
69'I. Porokhov IND. Pushkarev out
69'D. Mironov INI. Azyavin out
73'R. Magal INI. Kalinin out
73'R. Ezhov INR. Pasevich out
73'Z. Fedorov INP. Meleshin out
77'O. Lanin INN. Kotin out
79'Aleksandr Soldatenkov
80'Ilya Azyavin
81'M. Ignatov INR. Bart out
88'Denis Mironov
90+3'M. Kuzmin INM. Kaynov out

Lineups

Shinnik Yaroslavl
3-5-2Coach: Artem Buloychik
FC Sochi
3-4-3Coach: Igor Osinkin
T. Mitrov51T. Mitrov
A. Kosogorov2A. Kosogorov
V. Karpov62V. Karpov
N. Chistyakov23N. Chistyakov
A. Gongapshev10A. Gongapshev
A. Chernyi27A. Chernyi
A. Golubev50A. Golubev
O. Lanin64O. Lanin
D. Samoylov15D. Samoylov
I. Porokhov11I. Porokhov
D. Mironov88D. Mironov
A. Degtev35A. Degtev
A. Soldatenkov3A. Soldatenkov
V. Litvinov4V. Litvinov
K. Zaika27K. Zaika
R. Magal28R. Magal
A. Osipov5A. Osipov
M. Kuzmin6M. Kuzmin
A. Makarchuk17A. Makarchuk
R. Ezhov29R. Ezhov
Z. Fedorov9Z. Fedorov
M. Ignatov8M. Ignatov

Shinnik Yaroslavl Substitutes

95D. Vambolt
53N. Kotin77'for O. Lanin
49M. Karaev
33A. Lavrenkov
17E. Valiakhmetov
7D. Martovoy61'for D. Samoylov
21D. Pushkarev69'for I. Porokhov
54I. Shmakov
77A. Antonov61'for A. Gongapshev
24I. Azyavin69'for D. Mironov80'

FC Sochi Substitutes

85D. Silev
37M. Chirkov
13I. Kalinin73'for R. Magal
97R. Pasevich73'for R. Ezhov
18M. Kaynov90+3'for M. Kuzmin
66A. Metsiev
11P. Meleshin73'for Z. Fedorov
59R. Bart81'for M. Ignatov

Team Comparison

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
FC SochiFC Sochi
1499Elo Rating 1522
0.66Attack 1.68
1.67Defense 2.42
19%Hit Rate 83%
5.2Shots per Game 7.8
2.6Shots on Target 3.0
6.7Corners per Game 4.5
1.2Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC SochiFC Sochi
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
FC SochiFC Sochi1Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

First League23/03/2025
FC SochiShinnik Yaroslavl
12
First League04/08/2024
Shinnik YaroslavlFC Sochi
02

Recent Form

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
4W6D0L
30/06/2026
CSKA MoscowShinnik Yaroslavl
11
D
16/05/2026
ChelyabinskShinnik Yaroslavl
22
D
11/05/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlTorpedo Moskva
11
D
04/05/2026
UralShinnik Yaroslavl
01
W
26/04/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlSka-khabarovsk
30
W
22/04/2026
FakelShinnik Yaroslavl
22
D
18/04/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlArsenal Tula
20
W
12/04/2026
Volga UlyanovskShinnik Yaroslavl
01
W
04/04/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlKAMAZ
00
D
28/03/2026
FK NeftekhimikShinnik Yaroslavl
00
D
FC SochiFC Sochi
5W2D3L
03/07/2026
FC SochiTorpedo Moskva
03
L
30/06/2026
FC SochiSka-khabarovsk
42
W
26/06/2026
FC SochiArsenal Tula
33
D
17/05/2026
FC SochiAkhmat
11
D
10/05/2026
ZenitFC Sochi
21
L
03/05/2026
FC SochiFC Orenburg
31
W
26/04/2026
DynamoFC Sochi
20
L
21/04/2026
FC SochiKrylia Sovetov
21
W
17/04/2026
FC RostovFC Sochi
01
W
12/04/2026
CSKA MoscowFC Sochi
01
W

Referee Profile

R. Ziyakov54 matches

5.50Cards per match
5.20Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

R. Ziyakov5.50
Other referees4.60

5.50 cards a match, 0.90 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.60).

Cards come from 10 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod15131144:15+2940WWWWW
2FC SochiFC Sochi15102326:15+1132WWWDW
3Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1584327:12+1528DWWDD
4UralUral1584325:11+1428WLLWW
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1483320:13+727WLLWW
6VelesVeles1683520:19+127LDWLD
7FC UFAFC UFA1556418:15+321LWLDL
8Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1663721:22-121WWDWL
9Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1448218:14+420DWDLD
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1554623:18+519DLDWW
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1554619:29-1019WLWLD
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1543819:26-715LLWDW
13EniseyEnisey1535716:30-1414LLLDW
14LeningradetsLeningradets1535712:26-1414DLLWL
15KAMAZKAMAZ1534819:27-813LWDWD
16FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik15411011:22-1113DLLLL
17Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1524918:28-1010WLDDD
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1524911:25-1410LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod1544:1540
2FC SochiFC Sochi1526:1532
3Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1527:1228
4UralUral1525:1128
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1420:1327
6VelesVeles1620:1927
7FC UFAFC UFA1518:1521
8Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1621:2221
9Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1418:1420
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1523:1819
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1519:2919
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1519:2615
13EniseyEnisey1516:3014
14LeningradetsLeningradets1512:2614
15KAMAZKAMAZ1519:2713
16FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik1511:2213
17Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1518:2810
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1511:2510

About the Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi in the First League table

In the First League table, FC Sochi are 2nd and Shinnik Yaroslavl 9th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: Shinnik Yaroslavl 18-14, FC Sochi 26-15. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.