Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction

M. Corrigan 23/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
77%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.47
SignalGOODModel45%RiskMediumGap+14.2%
Sporting Kansas City Rest
6 days
Minnesota United FC Rest
60 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
26%3.40
X
28%3.85
2
46%1.96
Double Chance
1X
54%1.80
X2
74%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
77%1.47
No
23%2.52
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.38 + 1.46 = 2.84
Over 1.5
84%1.14
Over 2.5
61%1.53
Over 3.5
36%2.30
Under 1.5
16%5.32
Under 2.5
39%2.45
Under 3.5
64%1.61
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.8 = 9.6
Over 8.5
61%1.40
Over 9.5
50%1.70
Over 10.5
36%2.11
Under 8.5
39%2.75
Under 9.5
50%2.04
Under 10.5
64%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.3 = 5.1
Over 3.5
72%1.60
Over 4.5
55%2.25
Under 3.5
28%2.25
Under 4.5
45%1.60

Match Events

21'K. Duncan
28'D. JoveljicAssist: Capita
45+2'Capita
54'M. GarciaAssist: J. Davis
56'J. Pereyra
64'K. Yeboah INM. Dieng out
64'K. Duncan INB. Hlongwane out
72'M. Garcia INK. Agyabeng out
72'Capita INS. Afrifa out
74'D. Joveljic
75'D. PadelfordAssist: J. Pereyra
75'D. Padelford INJ. Diaz out
75'O. Gene INM. Gonzalez out
79'E. Karic INJ. Reid out
79'Z. Bassong INJ. Bartlett out
84'B. Hlongwane
85'T. Chancalay INJ. Gressel out

Lineups

Sporting Kansas City
4-2-3-1Coach: Raphael Wicky
Minnesota United FC
3-4-3Coach: Cameron Knowles
Stefan Cleveland30S. ClevelandStefan Cleveland
Jacob Davis8J. DavisJacob Davis
Or Blorian5O. BlorianOr Blorian
Wyatt Meyer28W. MeyerWyatt Meyer
Emir Karić18E. KarićEmir Karić
Lasse Berg Johnsen4L. Berg JohnsenLasse Berg Johnsen
Zorhan Bassong22Z. BassongZorhan Bassong
Capita7CapitaCapita
Manu García6M. GarcíaManu García
Calvin Harris11C. HarrisCalvin Harris
Dejan Joveljić9D. JoveljićDejan Joveljić
Drake Callender12D. CallenderDrake Callender
Michael Boxall15M. BoxallMichael Boxall
Morris Duggan23M. DugganMorris Duggan
Devin Padelford2D. PadelfordDevin Padelford
Kyle Duncan3K. DuncanKyle Duncan
Owen Gene30O. GeneOwen Gene
Wil Trapp20W. TrappWil Trapp
Anthony Markanich13A. MarkanichAnthony Markanich
Joaquín Pereyra26J. PereyraJoaquín Pereyra
Kelvin Yeboah9K. YeboahKelvin Yeboah
Tomás Chancalay8T. ChancalayTomás Chancalay

Sporting Kansas City Substitutes

20Kwaku AgyabengM
17Stephen AfrifaF
99Jayden ReidD
16Jacob BartlettD
1John PulskampG
23Ethan BartlowD
2Ian JamesD
15Jansen MillerD
93Shapi SuleymanovF

Minnesota United FC Substitutes

21Bongokuhle HlongwaneF
29Mamadou DiengF
28Jefferson DíazD
18Mauricio GonzálezF
24Julian GresselM
1Alec SmirG
33Kieran ChandlerD
27D.J. TaylorD
6Peter StroudM

Match Stats

Sporting Kansas CityMinnesota United FC
35%Ball Possession65%
3Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards3
11Total Shots16
7Shots on Goal10
4Shots off Goal4
7Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box4
0Blocked Shots2
17Fouls7
8Goalkeeper Saves5
304Total Passes582
235Passes Accurate500
77%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
1439Elo Rating 1565
1.80Attack 2.75
0.76Defense 0.00
27%Hit Rate 14%
16.8Shots per Game 13.1
5.0Shots on Target 5.3
5.7Corners per Game 4.1
1.6Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend54% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Sporting Kansas City 0%Draw 23%77% Minnesota United FC
3.66Avg Goals
54%BTTS Rate
81%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
2W0D3L
17/07/2026
St. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
32
L
24/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
12
L
17/05/2026
AustinSporting Kansas City
12
W
14/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CityLos Angeles Galaxy
31
W
10/05/2026
Portland TimbersSporting Kansas City
60
L
Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
1W2D2L
23/05/2026
Minnesota United FCReal Salt Lake
11
D
17/05/2026
New England RevolutionMinnesota United FC
21
L
14/05/2026
Minnesota United FCColorado Rapids
01
L
11/05/2026
Minnesota United FCAustin
22
D
03/05/2026
Columbus CrewMinnesota United FC
23
W

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps25154656:23+3349WLWLW
2Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo26135834:30+444DLWDD
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City26128645:36+944WWDWD
4FC DallasFC Dallas26128649:42+744DWWWD
5San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes26126846:38+842DWWDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC27118843:29+1441DLWDD
7Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids261131236:35+136DWDLW
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy27891034:42-833WDLWL
9Portland TimbersPortland Timbers26951247:48-132LLDWL
10San DiegoSan Diego26871144:44031DLLLW
11AustinAustin26791032:44-1230DWDDW
12Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake25851237:42-529LLLDL
13Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders2478928:33-529DDDDD
14Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC26781139:46-729LLLLD
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City25531729:63-3418LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps2556:2349
2Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo2634:3044
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City2645:3644
4FC DallasFC Dallas2649:4244
5San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes2646:3842
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC2743:2941
7Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids2636:3536
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy2734:4233
9Portland TimbersPortland Timbers2647:4832
10San DiegoSan Diego2644:4431
11AustinAustin2632:4430
12Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake2537:4229
13Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders2428:3329
14Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC2639:4629
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City2529:6318
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Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Major League Soccer fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Sporting Kansas City and Minnesota United FC have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.66 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.