Uganda vs Libya Prediction

Uganda
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Libya
Hoima City Stadium, Hoima·Naby Laye Toure 29/09/2026
UgandaUganda
1-0
Finished
LibyaLibya

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalHIGHModel54%SurpriseMediumGap-4.4%
Value Analysis
54%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.90
SignalNEUTRALModel54%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
Uganda Rest
4 days
Libya Rest
5 days

Uganda vs Libya: result, form and history

Uganda beat Libya 1-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 29 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Libya had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Uganda.

Libya tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 3.5 for Uganda.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.90
X
26%3.00
2
20%4.20
Double Chance
1X
80%1.20
X2
46%1.79
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

45+2'Arnold Vula Lamb LuthAssist: Allan Okello
51'Fadel Libya Ali SalamaFoul
55'Abdulmunem Aleiyan INAmjed Al Gsheim out
59'Arnold Vula Lamb Luth INKelvin Owusu Boateng out
62'Sayfulnasr JudourFoul
66'Maruwan Alhibeeshi INOsama Mukhtar Al Shremi out
73'Muad Abdulbasit Salem Eisa INAhmed Alsuwee out
77'Rogers MatoFoul
78'Allan Okello INDenis Omedi out
86'Mahmoud Al ShilwFoul
87'Rogers Mato INAllan Oyirwoth out

Lineups

Uganda
3-5-2Coach: P. Put
Libya
4-2-3-1Coach: Youssouph Dabo
Avg rating6.78
Avg rating6.48
D. Onyango7.918D. Onyango
K. Semakula6.54K. Semakula
R. Torach7.13R. Torach
T. Sibbick7.05T. Sibbick
N. Asiimwe6.72N. Asiimwe
A. Okello7.321A. Okello
N. Okello6.215N. Okello
B. Alhassan6.36B. Alhassan
A. Kayondo6.423A. Kayondo
A. Vula7.89A. Vula
R. Mato6.17R. Mato
2222A. Altihar
1717F. Libya Ali Salama
44A. Almusrat
1515A. Ali
2323S. Judour
88M. Al Shilw
1616M. Alhibeeshi
1919M. Abdulbasit Salem Eisa
66A. Aleiyan
1010H. Elhouni
99E. Maryami

Uganda Substitutes

13K. Boateng59'for Arnold Vula Lamb Luth6.4
20Herbet Achai
17J. Bogere
14Denis Omedi78'replaced by Allan Okello
19David Lukwago
16Hilary Mukundane
11Steven Dese Mukwala
10T. Mutyaba
24Jonathan Gift Odongo
8Allan Oyirwoth87'for Rogers Mato6.5
22Joseph Seremba
1Hannington Ssebwalunyo

Libya Substitutes

18Amjed Al Gsheim55'replaced by Abdulmunem Aleiyan
2Moataz Al Jurnazi
14Muhand Madyen
27Fahd Saad Mohamed
26Asharaf Al Muqsi
20Osama Mukhtar Al Shremi66'replaced by Maruwan Alhibeeshi
1Murad Al Woheshi
21Ahmed Alsuwee73'replaced by Muad Abdulbasit Salem Eisa
12Mohamed Darebi
13Mohammed Khaleel
5Ahmed Abdalla
3Sobhi Al Dawi

Match Stats

UgandaLibya
45%Ball Possession55%
2Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards3
6Total Shots14
1Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal5
3Shots Inside Box6
3Shots Outside Box8
1Blocked Shots4
16Fouls21
3Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves0
353Total Passes434
279Passes Accurate370
19Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

UgandaUganda
LibyaLibya
1556Elo Rating 1467
1.00Attack 0.93
1.60Defense 2.27
27%Hit Rate 31%
9.0Shots per Game 18.6
2.3Shots on Target 5.9
3.5Corners per Game 6.8
1.7Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

UgandaUganda
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
LibyaLibya
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

UgandaUganda
3W3D4L
24/09/2026
TunisiaUganda
11
D
30/12/2025
UgandaNigeria
13
L
27/12/2025
UgandaTanzania
11
D
23/12/2025
TunisiaUganda
31
L
14/10/2025
AlgeriaUganda
21
L
09/10/2025
BotswanaUganda
01
W
08/09/2025
UgandaSomalia
20
W
05/09/2025
UgandaMozambique
40
W
23/08/2025
UgandaSenegal
01
L
18/08/2025
South AfricaUganda
33
D
LibyaLibya
3W5D2L
24/09/2026
LibyaBotswana
22
D
13/10/2025
MauritiusLibya
00
D
08/10/2025
LibyaCape Verde Islands
33
D
08/09/2025
LibyaEswatini
20
W
04/09/2025
AngolaLibya
01
W
25/03/2025
CameroonLibya
31
L
20/03/2025
LibyaAngola
11
D
18/11/2024
LibyaBenin
00
D
14/11/2024
RwandaLibya
01
W
11/10/2024
NigeriaLibya
10
L

League Table

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1UgandaUganda21102:1+14WD
2BotswanaBotswana20204:402DD
3TunisiaTunisia20203:302DD
4LibyaLibya20112:3-11LD
#TeamMPGPts
1UgandaUganda22:14
2BotswanaBotswana24:42
3TunisiaTunisia23:32
4LibyaLibya22:31
Promotion

About the Uganda vs Libya forecast

This is a Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

More Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixtures and forecasts are on the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Uganda and Libya have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.