Aarhus vs Sonderjyske Prediction

Aarhus
3-0
Finished
HT 3-0
Sonderjyske
Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus·Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen 12/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.47
SignalSOLIDModel57%SurpriseHighGap-0.9%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.47
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Aarhus Rest
10 days
Sonderjyske Rest
22 days

Aarhus vs Sonderjyske: the result in context

Aarhus beat Sonderjyske 3-0 in the Superliga on 12 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.4 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 9. Sonderjyske tend to win more corners, 7.0 a game to 1.9 for Aarhus.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
61%1.53
X
23%4.33
2
16%5.25
Double Chance
1X
83%1.14
X2
39%2.39
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.53
No
39%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.98 + 1.26 = 3.24
Over 1.5
85%1.13
Over 2.5
65%1.47
Over 3.5
44%2.20
Under 1.5
15%5.50
Under 2.5
35%2.60
Under 3.5
56%1.65
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.7 = 10.8
Over 8.5
67%1.31
Over 9.5
57%1.53
Over 10.5
48%1.88
Under 8.5
33%3.10
Under 9.5
43%2.33
Under 10.5
52%1.83
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%1.87
Over 4.5
32%2.70
Under 3.5
48%1.88
Under 4.5
68%1.42

Match Events

9'Kristian Arnstad
15'Janni SerraAssist: Rasmus Carstensen
15'Goal confirmedKristian Arnstad
25'Goal cancelledMagnus Knudsen
38'Frederik TingagerAssist: Kristian Arnstad
45'Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason INStefan Velkov out
45'Ismaïl SeydiFoul
63'Frederik Emmery INCallum McCowatt out
66'Sefer Emini INTeodor Berg Haltvik out
66'Mathias Olesen INJacob Christensen out
77'Daniel Leo Gretarsson INEric Kahl out
78'Janni Serra INStefen Tchamche out
81'Ismaïl Seydi INBubacarr Tambedou out
81'Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg INAndreas Oggesen out
90'Tobias Bech Kristensen INJames Bogere out
90'Rasmus Carstensen INJacob Andersen out

Lineups

Aarhus
3-4-2-1Coach: J. Poulsen
Sonderjyske
4-2-3-1Coach: Fatah Abdirahman
Avg rating7.26
Avg rating6.09
J. Hansen7.71J. Hansen
T. Mølgaard7.414T. Mølgaard
F. Tingager8.85F. Tingager
D. Grétarsson7.23D. Grétarsson
R. Carstensen7.029R. Carstensen
M. Knudsen6.94M. Knudsen
Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad8.710K. Fredrik Malt Arnstad
Frederik Emmery6.939F. Emmery
T. Bech6.531T. Bech
M. Anderson6.323M. Anderson
J. Serra7.813J. Serra
N. Shinton6.024N. Shinton
A. Munksgaard6.13A. Munksgaard
M. Soulas6.512M. Soulas
B. Bjarnason5.625B. Bjarnason
P. Kristensen5.919P. Kristensen
A. Hoeg6.317A. Hoeg
M. Olesen6.810M. Olesen
I. Seydi5.531I. Seydi
M. Haidara6.28M. Haidara
S. Emini5.97S. Emini
O. De Rosario5.711O. De Rosario

Aarhus Substitutes

28J. Bogere90'for Tobias Bech Kristensen
26J. Andersen90'for Rasmus Carstensen
21M. Hedenstad Christiansen
19E. Kahl77'for Daniel Leo Gretarsson7.1
18C. McCowatt63'for Frederik Emmery6.8
25C. Rösler
7M. Solbakken
27S. Tchamche78'for Janni Serra6.5
8S. Jørgensen

Sonderjyske Substitutes

14T. Haltvik66'for Sefer Emini6.3
30G. Wagner
1N. Flø
34Elias Hjort- Pedersen
9M. Hoppe
21S. Velkov45'for Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason6.4
22A. Oggesen81'for Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg5.8
26B. Tambedou81'for Ismaïl Seydi6.4
33J. Christensen66'for Mathias Olesen6.0

Match Stats

AarhusSonderjyske
52%Ball Possession48%
3Corner Kicks7
0Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots14
4Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal7
8Shots Inside Box12
1Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots2
10Fouls11
3Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves1
481Total Passes420
418Passes Accurate358
11Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

AarhusAarhus
SonderjyskeSonderjyske
1624Elo Rating 1515
2.03Attack 2.16
2.03Defense 1.29
34%Hit Rate 46%
8.0Shots per Game 14.1
2.7Shots on Target 5.8
1.9Corners per Game 7.0
1.2Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+109 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.23 goals
📈BTTS Trend90% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

AarhusAarhus
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SonderjyskeSonderjyske
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AarhusAarhus5Wins · 50%
Draws330%
SonderjyskeSonderjyske2Wins · 20%
3.4Avg Goals
90%Both teams scored9 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Superliga03/05/2026
AarhusSonderjyske
21
Superliga15/03/2026
SonderjyskeAarhus
11
Superliga09/11/2025
AarhusSonderjyske
23
DBU Pokalen29/10/2025
AarhusSonderjyske
21
Superliga20/07/2025
SonderjyskeAarhus
11
Superliga16/02/2025
SonderjyskeAarhus
14
Superliga02/08/2024
AarhusSonderjyske
40
Superliga08/05/2022
AarhusSonderjyske
11
Superliga18/04/2022
SonderjyskeAarhus
21
Superliga18/02/2022
SonderjyskeAarhus
23

Referee Profile

Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen152 matches

3.73Cards per match
3.56Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
21.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen3.73
Other referees3.94

3.73 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.94).

Cards come from 109 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Superliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen1181225:11+1425DLWWW
2FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland1174021:11+1025WWDWD
3ViborgViborg1162318:10+820LWWDL
4FC NordsjaellandFC Nordsjaelland1154217:13+419DDLWD
5BrondbyBrondby1151518:19-116LWLLL
6AC HorsensAC Horsens1134418:19-113DDDLW
7OdenseOdense1134410:15-513WDDWL
8SilkeborgSilkeborg1125415:19-411LDWDD
9Randers FCRanders FC1132611:16-511DLLLW
10AarhusAarhus1116415:18-39DWDLD
11SonderjyskeSonderjyske1122716:24-88WLWDL
12LyngbyLyngby1115515:24-98DLLDW
#TeamMPGPts
1FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen1125:1125
2FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland1121:1125
3ViborgViborg1118:1020
4FC NordsjaellandFC Nordsjaelland1117:1319
5BrondbyBrondby1118:1916
6AC HorsensAC Horsens1118:1913
7OdenseOdense1110:1513
8SilkeborgSilkeborg1115:1911
9Randers FCRanders FC1111:1611
10AarhusAarhus1115:189
11SonderjyskeSonderjyske1116:248
12LyngbyLyngby1115:248
Relegation

About the Aarhus vs Sonderjyske forecast

The forecasts for this Superliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Aarhus and Sonderjyske in the Superliga table

Aarhus and Sonderjyske are close in the Superliga table, 10th and 11th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Aarhus 15-18, Sonderjyske 16-24. The full standings are on the Superliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.