AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

Allwyn Arena, Athens· A. Tsakalidis 05/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.76
SignalGOODModel53%RiskMediumGap+5.3%
AEK Athens FC Rest
3 days
Aris Thessalonikis Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.36
X
20%4.65
2
15%8.00
Double Chance
1X
85%1.07
X2
35%2.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.99
No
48%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.92 + 0.87 = 2.79
Over 1.5
81%1.22
Over 2.5
59%1.76
Over 3.5
34%2.90
Under 1.5
19%3.92
Under 2.5
41%2.04
Under 3.5
66%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 3.9 = 9.9
Over 8.5
65%1.72
Over 9.5
54%2.17
Over 10.5
43%2.77
Under 8.5
35%2.00
Under 9.5
46%1.60
Under 10.5
57%1.33
Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

11'Barnabás VargaAssist: Lovro Majer
27'Lovro MajerFoul
40'Llazaros RotaFoul
45'Manu García INChristian Kouamé out
45'Giannis Gianniotas INSebastián Palacios out
62'Barnabás VargaAssist: Mijat Gaćinović
64'Tino Kadewere INRafa Mir out
64'Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru INMartin Hongla out
66'Răzvan MarinAssist: Lovro Majer
68'Mijat Gaćinović INAboubakary Koita out
68'Luka Jovic INAmbrósini António Cabaça Salvador out
72'Goal cancelledBarnabás Varga
75'Aboubakary KoitaAssist: Milan Vitális
80'Barnabás Varga INPetros Mantalos out
80'Răzvan Marin INKervin Arriaga out
82'Penalty cancelledPetros Mantalos
82'Benjamin Garré INOthman Boussaid out
83'Lovro Majer INOleksandr Zubkov out
90'Ambrósini António Cabaça SalvadorAssist: Petros Mantalos

Lineups

AEK Athens FC
4-4-2Coach: M. Nikolić
Aris Thessalonikis
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Grigoriou
T. Strakosha1T. StrakoshaT. Strakosha
L. Rota12L. RotaL. Rota
H. Moukoudi2H. MoukoudiH. Moukoudi
Filipe Relvas44F. RelvasFilipe Relvas
S. Pilios3S. PiliosS. Pilios
L. Majer14L. MajerL. Majer
M. Vitális27M. VitálisM. Vitális
R. Marin18R. MarinR. Marin
M. Gaćinović8M. GaćinovićM. Gaćinović
B. Varga19B. VargaB. Varga
L. Jović9L. JovićL. Jović
Ricardo Velho33R. VelhoRicardo Velho
N. Fadiga27N. FadigaN. Fadiga
B. Šutalo44B. ŠutaloB. Šutalo
F. Jensen97F. JensenF. Jensen
O. Richards3O. RichardsO. Richards
T. Dele-Bashiru20T. Dele-BashiruT. Dele-Bashiru
U. Račić10U. RačićU. Račić
B. Garré7B. GarréB. Garré
Manu García5M. GarcíaManu García
G. Gianniotas70G. GianniotasG. Gianniotas
T. Kadewere9T. KadewereT. Kadewere

AEK Athens FC Substitutes

17Dimitrios KaloskamisM
16K. ArriagaM
22C. LykogiannisD
20P. MantalosM
23João MárioM
15M. TodorskiD
21D. VidaD
11A. KoitaF
10O. ZubkovM
6K. KairinenM
90ZiniF
91A. BrignoliG

Aris Thessalonikis Substitutes

41Konstantinos CharoupasM
1S. DioudisG
18M. HonglaM
8C. KouaméF
21L. MajkićG
17Rafa MirF
80Loren MorónF
34S. PalaciosF
2J. PétrisD
45Matar ThiamD
22M. VoriazidisM
49O. BoussaidM

Match Stats

AEK Athens FCAris Thessalonikis
60%Ball Possession40%
2Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards0
21Total Shots7
10Shots on Goal2
9Shots off Goal4
16Shots Inside Box3
5Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots1
16Fouls17
3Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves5
540Total Passes358
472Passes Accurate287
17Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
1807Elo Rating 1622
3.69Attack 0.39
2.50Defense 1.74
77%Hit Rate 23%
20.0Shots per Game 16.7
4.9Shots on Target 2.3
4.8Corners per Game 5.8
1.3Cards per Game 0.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+185 Elo
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.3 vs 1.3 in second half)
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

AEK Athens FC 37%Draw 63%0% Aris Thessalonikis
1.66Avg Goals
44%BTTS Rate
14%Over 2.5

Recent Form

AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC
3W2D0L
02/09/2026
Nestos ChrisoupolisAEK Athens FC
02
W
30/08/2026
KifisiaAEK Athens FC
11
D
26/08/2026
AEK Athens FCLevski Sofia
40
W
22/08/2026
AEK Athens FCIraklis 1908
40
W
18/08/2026
Levski SofiaAEK Athens FC
00
D
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
4W0D1L
30/08/2026
Aris ThessalonikisOFI
21
W
22/08/2026
KalamataAris Thessalonikis
23
W
17/08/2026
Anagennisi KarditsasAris Thessalonikis
02
W
12/08/2026
NapoliAris Thessalonikis
62
L
30/07/2026
MonzaAris Thessalonikis
13
W

Referee Profile

A. Tsakalidis · 30 matches analysed

5.0Avg Yellows
5.1Avg Cards
29.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 85% of referees analysed

League Table

Super League 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PanathinaikosPanathinaikos440011:2+912WWWW
2AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC532013:3+1011WDWDW
3Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus53114:2+210WLDWW
4PAOKPAOK43019:4+59WLWW
5OFIOFI43016:2+49WWLW
6PanetolikosPanetolikos43017:4+39LWWW
7Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis52125:10-57DLLWW
8Iraklis 1908Iraklis 190851314:6-26DDWDL
9KifisiaKifisia51224:7-35WDLLD
10KalamataKalamata41126:7-14WDLL
11AtromitosAtromitos50234:7-32LDDLL
12Volos NFCVolos NFC50234:9-52LLDDL
13Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis40132:7-51DLLL
14LevadiakosLevadiakos50140:9-91LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PanathinaikosPanathinaikos411:212
2AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC513:311
3Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus54:210
4PAOKPAOK49:49
5OFIOFI46:29
6PanetolikosPanetolikos47:49
7Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis55:107
8Iraklis 1908Iraklis 190854:66
9KifisiaKifisia54:75
10KalamataKalamata46:74
11AtromitosAtromitos54:72
12Volos NFCVolos NFC54:92
13Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis42:71
14LevadiakosLevadiakos50:91
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Super League 1 fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Super League 1

ScorePredicts covers Greece football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

AEK Athens FC have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.66 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.