Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Prediction

Al-Nassr
3-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Neftchi
Al-Awwal Park, Riyadh·Ma Ning 12/10/2026
Al-NassrAl-Nassr
3-1
Finished
NeftchiNeftchi

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel76%SurpriseHighGap-1.4%
Al-Nassr Rest
3 days
Neftchi Rest
5 days

Al-Nassr vs Neftchi: result, form and history

Al-Nassr beat Neftchi 3-1 in the AFC Champions League Elite on 12 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Ma Ning averages 4.40 cards a game, 0.64 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.20
X
15%6.65
2
5%11.00
Double Chance
1X
95%1.05
X2
20%4.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.80
No
51%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.3 + 0.57 = 2.87
Over 1.5
80%1.10
Over 2.5
64%1.33
Over 3.5
43%1.93
Under 1.5
20%6.15
Under 2.5
36%3.00
Under 3.5
57%1.81
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

13'Kingsley Coman INAyman Yahya out
17'Ibrokhimkhalil YuldoshevFoul
30'Anvarjon GofurovFoul
33'Angelo BorgesAssist: Nawaf Boushal
42'Cristiano RonaldoAssist: Ayman Yahya
45'Goal cancelledMarcus Forss
45'Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev INFarrukh Sayfiev out
45'Yan Medeiros Sasse INAlisher Odilov out
45+3'Marcus ForssArgument
45+3'Iñigo MartínezArgument
51'Alisher Odilov
62'Abrorbek ismoilov INAsilbek Jumaev out
63'Marcus Forss INStipe Perica out
65'Ikromzhon AlibaevSerious foul
70'Michel INRatinho out
72'Mohamed Simakan INNader Abdullah Al-Sharari out
72'Ayman Yahya INAbdullah Al-Khaibari out
78'Anvarjon GofurovOG
81'Sadio Mané INAbdullah Al-Hamdan out

Lineups

Al-Nassr
4-4-2Coach: A. Postecoglou
Neftchi
4-3-3Coach: Islom Ismoilov
Avg rating7.00
Avg rating5.94
Bento6.924Bento
Nawaf Boushal7.312N. Boushal
M. Simakan7.53M. Simakan
Íñigo Martínez7.026Í. Martínez
Awad Aman7.070A. Aman
K. Coman6.421K. Coman
Ângelo8.220Ângelo
Samú Costa7.211S. Costa
S. Mané6.810S. Mané
João Félix6.279J. Félix
Cristiano Ronaldo8.27C. Ronaldo
B. Ergashev5.41B. Ergashev
K. Kouao6.452K. Kouao
66I. Yuldoshev
B. Ciger6.34B. Ciger
Michel6.13Michel
J. Iskanderov6.010J. Iskanderov
I. Alibaev5.35I. Alibaev
Yan Sasse5.831Y. Sasse
M. Forss6.288M. Forss
A. G'ofurov5.020A. G'ofurov
A. Ismailov5.87A. Ismailov

Al-Nassr Substitutes

8Hayder Abdulkareem
4Nader Al Sharari72'for Mohamed Simakan6.5
14Sami Al Naji
17Abdullah Al Khaibari72'replaced by Ayman Yahya6.7
60Saad Haqawi
9Abdullah Al Hamdan81'for Sadio Mané6.5
23Ayman Yahya13'for Kingsley Coman72'for Abdullah Al-Khaibari6.6
53A. Al Otaibi
66Sultan Abdullah Saad Al Mas

Neftchi Substitutes

22Alisher Odilov45'for Yan Medeiros Sasse51'7.2
18S. Perica63'for Marcus Forss6.3
77Ratinho70'for Michel5.9
34F. Sayfiyev45'replaced by Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev5.9
71B. Toshmirzaev
45A. Turaev
21M. Ubaydullayev
11A. Jumayev62'for Abrorbek ismoilov6.1
8V. Jovović
9K. Giyosov
15Nurmuhammad Abduganiyev
32Z. Marušić

Match Stats

Al-NassrNeftchi
61%Ball Possession39%
5Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
16Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal6
12Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots1
4Fouls13
3Offsides4
0Goalkeeper Saves1
564Total Passes293
499Passes Accurate226
13Free Kicks4

Team Comparison

Al-NassrAl-Nassr
NeftchiNeftchi
1860Elo Rating 1652
1.68Attack 2.12
1.97Defense 0.55
69%Hit Rate 37%
16.2Shots per Game 9.0
4.0Shots on Target 2.0
6.8Corners per Game 5.0
1.3Cards per Game 5.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+208 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📈BTTS Trend
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

Al-NassrAl-Nassr
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NeftchiNeftchi
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

NeftchiNeftchi
7W1D2L
07/10/2026
NeftchiXorazm
22
D
20/09/2026
LokomotivNeftchi
01
W
14/09/2026
NeftchiAl Quwa Al Jawiya
10
W
09/09/2026
NeftchiSurkhon
21
W
04/09/2026
NasafNeftchi
62
L
29/08/2026
NeftchiPakhtakor
10
W
23/08/2026
NeftchiSogdiana
30
W
18/08/2026
BuxoroNeftchi
41
L
13/08/2026
AndijanNeftchi
03
W
08/08/2026
NeftchiQizilqum
50
W

Referee Profile

Ma Ning113 matches

4.40Cards per match
4.06Yellow cards per match
0.34Red cards per match
25.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ma Ning4.40
Other referees3.76

4.40 cards a match, 0.64 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.76).

Cards come from 101 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

AFC Champions League Elite 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Al AinAl Ain22008:1+76WW
2Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC22005:1+46WW
3Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hilal Saudi FC22004:1+36WW
4Shabab Al Ahli DubaiShabab Al Ahli Dubai22003:1+26WW
5Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah21104:2+24WD
6Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Qadisiyah FC21103:2+14DW
7NeftchiNeftchi21012:3-13LW
8Al-NassrAl-Nassr21013:5-23WL
9PakhtakorPakhtakor20202:202DD
10Al ShamalAl Shamal20201:102DD
11Al-Ittihad FCAl-Ittihad FC20112:3-11LD
12Tractor SaziTractor Sazi20110:1-11DL
13Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa20022:4-20LL
14Al-Wasl FCAl-Wasl FC20022:5-30LL
15Al Quwa Al JawiyaAl Quwa Al Jawiya20021:5-40LL
16Al SaddAl Sadd20020:5-50LL

Bracket

Preliminary Round 1

About the Al-Nassr vs Neftchi forecast

This is a AFC Champions League Elite cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About AFC Champions League Elite

More AFC Champions League Elite fixtures and forecasts are on the AFC Champions League Elite Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Al-Nassr and Neftchi have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.