Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction

Azerbaijan
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Lithuania
Bakcell Arena, Baku·Gustavo Correia 04/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.57
SignalGOODModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+6.5%
Azerbaijan Rest
2 days
Lithuania Rest
3 days

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: result, form and history

Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 4 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Gustavo Correia averages 6.08 cards a game, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%2.38
X
29%2.90
2
39%3.20
Double Chance
1X
61%1.34
X2
68%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%2.10
No
57%1.66
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.64 + 2.19 = 2.83
Over 1.5
67%1.51
Over 2.5
43%2.55
Over 3.5
25%5.10
Under 1.5
33%2.51
Under 2.5
57%1.47
Under 3.5
75%1.14
Corners
Projected Corners: 2.7 + 4.9 = 7.6
Over 8.5
53%2.00
Over 9.5
42%2.61
Over 10.5
30%3.58
Under 8.5
47%1.75
Under 9.5
58%1.43
Under 10.5
70%1.22
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 1.8 = 4.1
Over 3.5
58%-
Over 4.5
38%1.70
Under 3.5
42%-
Under 4.5
62%2.07

Match Events

25'Abdulakh khaybulaevAssist: Tural Bayramov
33'Abdulakh khaybulaevFoul
43'Modestas VorobjovasFoul
45'Edgaras Utkus INKipras Kazukolovas out
45'Tural Bayramov INVüsal İsgändärli out
45'Modestas Vorobjovas INLukas Michelbrink out
51'Ayxan AbbasovDissent
53'Red card cancelledAbdulakh khaybulaev
54'Artur Dolžnikov
57'Vüsal İsgändärliTime wasting
64'Oruc Məmmədov INEmil Safarov out
64'Abdulakh khaybulaev INRenat Dadaşov out
67'Adrian Lickunas INMotiejus Burba out
68'Vykintas Slivka INEligijus Jankauskas out
80'Aleksey Isaev INC. Nuriyev out
83'Rokas Lekiatas INIgnas Venckus out
88'Tellur Mutallimov INElvin Badalov out
90+2'Elvin BadalovFoul

Lineups

Azerbaijan
3-4-3Coach: Aykhan Abbasov
Lithuania
3-4-3Coach: E. Jankauskas
Avg rating6.58
Avg rating6.53
E. Balayev6.61E. Balayev
R. Məmmədov6.14R. Məmmədov
B. Hüseynov7.115B. Hüseynov
R. Daşdəmirov6.12R. Daşdəmirov
T. Mütəllimov6.519T. Mütəllimov
A. Xaybulayev7.86A. Xaybulayev
A. Isaev6.020A. Isaev
R. Abbasov6.73R. Abbasov
T. Bayramov7.27T. Bayramov
M. Emreli7.110M. Emreli
1818O. Məmmədov
T. Švedkauskas7.612T. Švedkauskas
V. Armalas6.718V. Armalas
E. Utkus7.03E. Utkus
R. Lekiatas6.920R. Lekiatas
A. Lickūnas6.221A. Lickūnas
M. Vorobjovas6.06M. Vorobjovas
G. Gineitis6.315G. Gineitis
J. Lasickas5.813J. Lasickas
V. Slivka6.814V. Slivka
A. Kučys6.510A. Kučys
A. Dolžnikov6.47A. Dolžnikov

Azerbaijan Substitutes

14E. Bədəlov88'for Tellur Mutallimov90+2'5.7
21R. Abdullazadə
12A. Bayramov
9R. Dadashov64'for Abdulakh khaybulaev6.3
17V. İsgəndərli45'for Tural Bayramov57'6.3
5A. Krivotsyuk
8E. Mahmudov
23R. Mirzəmmədov
11A. Nuriyev80'for Aleksey Isaev
13E. Səfərov64'for Oruc Məmmədov6.6
22M. Qurbanlı
16C. Nuriyev80'for Aleksey Isaev

Lithuania Substitutes

11E. Jankauskas68'for Vykintas Slivka6.5
5K. Kažukolovas45'for Edgaras Utkus6.6
22M. Burba67'for Adrian Lickunas6.4
16Lukas Michelbrink45'for Modestas Vorobjovas6.6
1L. Paukštė
9M. Ruzgis
8D. Šluta
4F. Steponavičius
2A. Tutyškinas
19I. Venckus83'for Rokas Lekiatas6.4
23D. Bartkus
17D. Malžinskas

Match Stats

AzerbaijanLithuania
38%Ball Possession62%
2Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
13Total Shots13
7Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box7
7Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots6
14Fouls9
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves6
326Total Passes519
221Passes Accurate406
68%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan
LithuaniaLithuania
1332Elo Rating 1421
0.63Attack 0.76
2.03Defense 2.19
27%Hit Rate 19%
12.3Shots per Game 12.5
4.1Shots on Target 4.1
3.6Corners per Game 4.2
2.7Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
LithuaniaLithuania
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan0Wins · 0%
Draws1100%
LithuaniaLithuania0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Recent Form

AzerbaijanAzerbaijan
2W3D5L
01/10/2026
AzerbaijanLiechtenstein
00
D
27/09/2026
LithuaniaAzerbaijan
11
D
23/09/2026
AzerbaijanTajikistan
10
W
09/06/2026
AzerbaijanSan Marino
21
W
05/06/2026
AzerbaijanMalta
02
L
16/11/2025
AzerbaijanFrance
13
L
13/11/2025
AzerbaijanIceland
02
L
13/10/2025
UkraineAzerbaijan
21
L
10/10/2025
FranceAzerbaijan
30
L
09/09/2025
AzerbaijanUkraine
11
D
LithuaniaLithuania
3W2D5L
30/09/2026
LithuaniaAndorra
30
W
27/09/2026
LithuaniaAzerbaijan
11
D
24/09/2026
LiechtensteinLithuania
02
W
09/06/2026
EstoniaLithuania
10
L
06/06/2026
LithuaniaLatvia
5141
W
17/11/2025
NetherlandsLithuania
40
L
12/10/2025
LithuaniaPoland
02
L
09/10/2025
FinlandLithuania
21
L
07/09/2025
LithuaniaNetherlands
23
L
04/09/2025
LithuaniaMalta
11
D

Referee Profile

Gustavo Correia172 matches

6.08Cards per match
5.67Yellow cards per match
0.40Red cards per match
29.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gustavo Correia6.08
Other referees5.41

6.08 cards a match, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.41).

Cards come from 119 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AzerbaijanAzerbaijan31202:1+15WDD
2LithuaniaLithuania31113:2+14LDW
3LiechtensteinLiechtenstein20110:2-21DL
#TeamMPGPts
1AzerbaijanAzerbaijan32:15
2LithuaniaLithuania33:24
3LiechtensteinLiechtenstein20:21
Promotion

About the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Azerbaijan and Lithuania in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Azerbaijan are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 1 point ahead of Lithuania in 2nd. League goal record so far: Azerbaijan 2-1, Lithuania 3-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Azerbaijan and Lithuania have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.