Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor Prediction

Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul·Ali Yilmaz 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalHIGHModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-6.7%
Fatih Karagümrük Rest
21 days
Muğlaspor Rest
22 days

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor: the result in context

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor drew 1-1 in the 1. Lig on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%1.75
X
27%3.49
2
22%4.33
Double Chance
1X
78%1.17
X2
49%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.81
No
46%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.66 + 1.26 = 2.92
Over 1.5
74%1.29
Over 2.5
50%1.91
Over 3.5
30%3.30
Under 1.5
26%3.30
Under 2.5
50%1.81
Under 3.5
70%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.1 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.75
Over 9.5
48%2.19
Over 10.5
37%2.90
Under 8.5
42%1.97
Under 9.5
52%1.58
Under 10.5
63%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.5 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
50%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
50%-

Match Events

11'Yiğit FidanFoul
31'Emre AkbabaAssist: Çağtay Kurukalıp
33'Ahmed TraoreFoul
44'Mamady·DiarraAssist: Yasin Uzunoglu
45+1'Yasin UzunogluFoul
53'Çağtay Kurukalıp
57'Poyraz Yildirim(Penalty missed)
57'Jurgen ÇelhakaFoul
63'Jurgen Çelhaka INDaniel Avramovski out
64'Poyraz Yildirim INDriton Camaj out
64'Yiğit Fidan INIbrahim Sissoko out
71'Manolis Siopis INBaris Kalayci out
71'Ramazan Civelek INCandan Baskale out
74'Luis MagoFoul
82'Cenk Tosun INTiago Cukur out
82'Yaya Onogo INRobin Yalçın out
85'Ali Kaan Guneren INİ. Furat out
85'Mamady·Diarra INKorede Osundina out
90+1'Ahmed Traore INJ. Esen out

Lineups

Fatih Karagümrük
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Stanojević
Muğlaspor
3-4-3Coach: Y. Koşukavak
Avg rating6.61
Avg rating6.56
M. Silvestri7.71M. Silvestri
M. Sarıkaya6.425M. Sarıkaya
D. Biraschi7.04D. Biraschi
A. Çınar7.328A. Çınar
Ç. Kurukalıp5.933Ç. Kurukalıp
Y. Onogo6.519Y. Onogo
M. Siopis6.720M. Siopis
Traore Ahmed6.226T. Ahmed
E. Akbaba7.55E. Akbaba
R. Civelek6.422R. Civelek
C. Tosun6.19C. Tosun
E. Kılıçarslan6.717E. Kılıçarslan
O. Nahırcı7.015O. Nahırcı
Yiğit Fidan6.288Y. Fidan
L. Del Pino5.844L. Del Pino
A. Engin6.428A. Engin
J. Çelhaka6.221J. Çelhaka
A. Güneren6.123A. Güneren
O. Matur6.45O. Matur
M. Diarra8.211M. Diarra
Y. Uzunoglu6.899Y. Uzunoglu
P. Yıldırım6.69P. Yıldırım

Fatih Karagümrük Substitutes

21Candan Baskale71'for Ramazan Civelek6.2
14Marius Tresor Doh
41J. Esen90+1'replaced by Ahmed Traore
27Muhammed Kadioglu
7Baris Kalayci71'for Manolis Siopis6.6
17Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı
3A. Nukan
6R. Yalçın82'for Yaya Onogo6.3
11T. Çukur82'for Cenk Tosun6.5
23B. Şen

Muğlaspor Substitutes

27I. Sissoko64'for Yiğit Fidan6.8
13K. Osundina85'for Mamady·Diarra6.6
53Alihan Kazmaz
91İ. Furat85'for Ali Kaan Guneren6.4
31Arel Ekinci
22B. Ceylan
7D. Camaj64'for Poyraz Yildirim6.5
20B. Bulut
3A. Barak
10D. Avramovski63'for Jurgen Çelhaka6.3

Match Stats

Fatih KaragümrükMuğlaspor
46%Ball Possession54%
2Corner Kicks10
1Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
9Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal4
7Shots Inside Box11
2Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots3
12Fouls17
2Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves1
344Total Passes395
273Passes Accurate318
79%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
MuğlasporMuğlaspor
1638Elo Rating 1639
1.22Attack 2.71
2.18Defense 1.28
41%Hit Rate 50%
15.0Shots per Game 12.4
4.7Shots on Target 6.4
3.0Corners per Game 4.6
1.9Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.92 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MuğlasporMuğlaspor
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 0.9 in second half)

Recent Form

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
5W3D2L
19/09/2026
Esenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
02
W
13/09/2026
Fatih KaragümrükManisa F.K.
11
D
06/09/2026
Batman PetrolsporFatih Karagümrük
43
L
02/09/2026
Fatih KaragümrükKayserispor
11
D
29/08/2026
İstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
11
D
21/08/2026
Fatih KaragümrükBursaspor
21
W
15/08/2026
Fatih KaragümrükÜmraniyespor
21
W
09/08/2026
Iğdır FKFatih Karagümrük
20
L
16/05/2026
Fatih KaragümrükAlanyaspor
21
W
09/05/2026
KocaelisporFatih Karagümrük
01
W
MuğlasporMuğlaspor
3W6D1L
18/09/2026
MuğlasporIğdır FK
22
D
13/09/2026
SivassporMuğlaspor
11
D
06/09/2026
MuğlasporVanspor FK
22
D
01/09/2026
ÜmraniyesporMuğlaspor
01
W
28/08/2026
MuğlasporBoluspor
20
W
22/08/2026
Bodrum FKMuğlaspor
00
D
16/08/2026
MuğlasporBandırmaspor
00
D
09/08/2026
SarıyerMuğlaspor
20
L
10/05/2026
MuğlasporElazığspor
8070
W
04/05/2026
MuğlasporŞanlıurfaspor
11
D

Referee Profile

Ali Yilmaz106 matches

4.64Cards per match
4.43Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ali Yilmaz4.64
Other referees4.77

4.64 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.77).

Cards come from 58 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

1. Lig 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BursasporBursaspor1291226:11+1528WWWLW
2KayserisporKayserispor1283126:9+1727DDWWW
3Iğdır FKIğdır FK1282217:9+826WWDWD
4Batman PetrolsporBatman Petrolspor1272325:21+423WDWLL
5Mardin 1969Mardin 19691263316:11+521WLWWL
6KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü1255223:15+820LWDWD
7MuğlasporMuğlaspor1246218:14+418WWLDD
8AntalyasporAntalyaspor1260618:19-118LWLWW
9Bodrum FKBodrum FK1245315:11+417WWWLD
10Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük1244416:15+116WLLDW
11SarıyerSarıyer1244414:17-316LDLDW
12BandırmasporBandırmaspor1235417:10+714LLDWL
13ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor1134413:10+313WLDWL
14SivassporSivasspor1227315:18-313LDDWD
15Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor1226412:16-412LWDWL
16PendiksporPendikspor1225514:23-911DLLLD
17Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.1224619:22-310LLDLL
18Vanspor FKVanspor FK1233613:22-910WLWLL
19İstanbulsporİstanbulspor121299:31-225LLLLW
20BolusporBoluspor1101103:25-221LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BursasporBursaspor1226:1128
2KayserisporKayserispor1226:927
3Iğdır FKIğdır FK1217:926
4Batman PetrolsporBatman Petrolspor1225:2123
5Mardin 1969Mardin 19691216:1121
6KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü1223:1520
7MuğlasporMuğlaspor1218:1418
8AntalyasporAntalyaspor1218:1918
9Bodrum FKBodrum FK1215:1117
10Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük1216:1516
11SarıyerSarıyer1214:1716
12BandırmasporBandırmaspor1217:1014
13ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor1113:1013
14SivassporSivasspor1215:1813
15Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor1212:1612
16PendiksporPendikspor1214:2311
17Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.1219:2210
18Vanspor FKVanspor FK1213:2210
19İstanbulsporİstanbulspor129:315
20BolusporBoluspor113:251
PromotionRelegation

About the Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor forecast

The forecasts for this 1. Lig match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor in the 1. Lig table

In the 1. Lig table, Muğlaspor are 7th and Fatih Karagümrük 10th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Fatih Karagümrük 16-15, Muğlaspor 18-14. The full standings are on the 1. Lig Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.