FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia Prediction

FC Tokyo
1-5
Finished
HT 1-2
Machida Zelvia
Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo·Hayato Shimizu, Japan 08/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.41
SignalHIGHModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+8.6%
FC Tokyo Rest
7 days
Machida Zelvia Rest
21 days

FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia: the result in context

Machida Zelvia beat FC Tokyo 5-1 in the J1 League on 8 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Machida Zelvia had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for FC Tokyo.

Their history points to a close game: 7 previous meetings produced 1.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
33%2.40
X
33%3.10
2
34%3.10
Double Chance
1X
66%1.35
X2
68%1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.90
No
47%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.18 + 1.44 = 2.62
Over 1.5
75%1.41
Over 2.5
48%2.27
Over 3.5
26%4.15
Under 1.5
25%2.77
Under 2.5
52%1.61
Under 3.5
74%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.7 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.80
Over 9.5
48%2.30
Over 10.5
37%3.00
Under 8.5
42%1.93
Under 9.5
52%1.55
Under 10.5
63%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2 = 4
Over 3.5
48%-
Over 4.5
31%-
Under 3.5
52%-
Under 4.5
69%-

Match Events

5'Marcelo RyanAssist: K. Sato
27'M. DukeAssist: Y. Nakayama
38'K. HashimotoSerious foul
42'D. OkamuraFoul
42'M. Nagakura INH. Ishihara out
45+2'T. Akimoto
46'K. Tawaratsumida INR. Omori out
51'Y. Soma
65'T. YengiAssist: Y. Nakayama
66'M. Duke INT. Nishimura out
66'Marcelo Ryan INF. Yamada out
66'K. Hashimoto INS. Homma out
79'N. Lavi INR. Shirasaki out
79'T. Yengi INS. Fujio out
79'H. Nakamura INH. Mochizuki out
80'D. Okamura
85'Y. Soma INK. Sento out
85'H. Inamura INT. Nakagawa out
89'K. SatoFoul

Lineups

FC Tokyo
4-4-2Coach: Rikizo Matsuhashi
Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1Coach: Go Kuroda
Avg rating6.29
Avg rating6.94
Kim Seung-gyu5.381K. Seung-gyu
Sei MuroyaC6.22S. Muroya
Alexander Scholz6.924A. Scholz
Hayato Inamura5.34H. Inamura
Kento Hashimoto5.042K. Hashimoto
Kein Sato6.910K. Sato
Kento Hashimoto6.318K. Hashimoto
Takahiro Ko6.58T. Ko
Kota Tawaratsumida6.933K. Tawaratsumida
Motoki Nagakura6.726M. Nagakura
Marcelo Ryan7.79M. Ryan
Kosei Tani7.91K. Tani
Gen ShojiC6.23G. Shoji
Daihachi Okamura7.350D. Okamura
Yuta Nakayama8.719Y. Nakayama
Hotaka Nakamura6.688H. Nakamura
Hiroyuki Mae6.516H. Mae
Neta Lavi6.931N. Lavi
Takahiro Akimoto7.733T. Akimoto
Mitchell Duke6.615M. Duke
Yuki Soma7.37Y. Soma
Tete Yengi7.399T. Yengi

FC Tokyo Substitutes

22Hirokazu Ishihara42'for M. Nagakura5.6
15Rio Omori46'for K. Tawaratsumida6.0
71Fuki Yamada66'for Marcelo Ryan6.2
19Shion Homma66'for K. Hashimoto6.5
39Teruhito Nakagawa85'for H. Inamura6.7
1Hayate Tanaka
20Shuto Nagano
3Masato Morishige
27Kyota Tokiwa

Machida Zelvia Substitutes

20Takuma Nishimura66'for M. Duke6.2
6Henry Heroki Mochizuki79'for H. Nakamura6.7
23Ryohei Shirasaki79'for N. Lavi6.3
9Shota Fujio79'for T. Yengi6.3
8Keiya Sento85'for Y. Soma6.5
13Tatsuya Morita
5Ibrahim Drešević
18Hokuto Shimoda
34Futa Tokumura

Match Stats

FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
44%Ball Possession56%
2Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
9Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal8
3Shots off Goal8
8Shots Inside Box11
1Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots1
11Fouls10
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves3
415Total Passes509
337Passes Accurate441
81%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

FC TokyoFC Tokyo
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
1696Elo Rating 1754
2.82Attack 1.88
2.83Defense 3.00
61%Hit Rate 77%
20.7Shots per Game 17.0
7.1Shots on Target 6.9
6.4Corners per Game 4.8
1.3Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend14% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

FC TokyoFC Tokyo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.4 vs 0.5 in first half)
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.6 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

FC TokyoFC Tokyo2Wins · 29%
Draws228%
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia3Wins · 43%
1.6Avg Goals
14%Both teams scored1 of 7
43%3+ goals3 of 7

Previous meetings

J1 League05/04/2026
FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
2040
J1 League01/04/2026
Machida ZelviaFC Tokyo
03
Emperor Cup16/11/2025
Machida ZelviaFC Tokyo
2000
J1 League09/11/2025
Machida ZelviaFC Tokyo
01
J1 League22/02/2025
FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
01
J1 League09/11/2024
Machida ZelviaFC Tokyo
30
J1 League21/04/2024
FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
12

Recent Form

FC TokyoFC Tokyo
5W1D4L
01/08/2026
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund
01
L
21/07/2026
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus
21
W
06/06/2026
FC TokyoCerezo Osaka
13
L
30/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyo
22
D
23/05/2026
KashimaFC Tokyo
10
L
16/05/2026
UrawaFC Tokyo
90100
W
10/05/2026
FC TokyoTokyo Verdy
21
W
06/05/2026
FC TokyoJEF United Chiba
03
L
02/05/2026
FC TokyoKawasaki Frontale
20
W
29/04/2026
Kashiwa ReysolFC Tokyo
13
W
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
7W1D2L
18/07/2026
Machida ZelviaFujieda MYFC
21
W
06/06/2026
Machida ZelviaNagoya Grampus
2010
W
30/05/2026
Nagoya GrampusMachida Zelvia
22
D
22/05/2026
Machida ZelviaUrawa
10
W
17/05/2026
Kawasaki FrontaleMachida Zelvia
5141
L
13/05/2026
Machida ZelviaTokyo Verdy
4020
W
10/05/2026
JEF United ChibaMachida Zelvia
02
W
06/05/2026
Machida ZelviaYokohama F. Marinos
20
W
03/05/2026
KashimaMachida Zelvia
4121
L
29/04/2026
Mito HollyhockMachida Zelvia
3242
W

Referee Profile

Hayato Shimizu172 matches

2.43Cards per match
2.29Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
19.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Hayato Shimizu2.43
Other referees2.55

2.43 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.55).

Cards come from 110 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC TokyoFC Tokyo1393131:8+2330WWDWW
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1392232:10+2229WWLWW
3Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1384130:10+2028DDWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1391329:19+1028WWDLW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1382321:12+926WDLWL
6KashimaKashima1372429:22+723WLDWW
7Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1364327:22+522LWWWL
8Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1356220:14+621WDDDD
9UrawaUrawa1370621:27-621LWWWL
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1351715:21-616LLWLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1342715:21-614LDDWW
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1335513:23-1014LDDLD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1342710:22-1214LLLDW
14Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1334617:23-613WDDLL
15V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1333716:21-512LLWLD
16Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1326514:21-712DDWDL
17Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy1325611:22-1111WWDLL
18JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1324715:24-910WDLDD
19Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1323812:25-139LLLLL
20Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka13211013:24-117LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1FC TokyoFC Tokyo1331:830
2Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1332:1029
3Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1330:1028
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1329:1928
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1321:1226
6KashimaKashima1329:2223
7Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1327:2222
8Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1320:1421
9UrawaUrawa1321:2721
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1315:2116
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1315:2114
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1313:2314
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1310:2214
14Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1317:2313
15V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1316:2112
16Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1314:2112
17Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy1311:2211
18JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1315:2410
19Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1312:259
20Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1313:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia forecast

The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Tokyo and Machida Zelvia in the J1 League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: FC Tokyo are 1st in the J1 League, 2 points ahead of Machida Zelvia in 3rd. League goal record so far: FC Tokyo 31-8, Machida Zelvia 30-10. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Machida Zelvia have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.