Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz Prediction

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh· Andris Treimanis, Latvia 28/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.56
SignalGOODModel44%RiskMediumGap+10.1%
Heart Of Midlothian Rest
4 days
Sturm Graz Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%1.87
X
27%4.00
2
36%3.60
Double Chance
1X
64%1.26
X2
63%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.51
No
50%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 1.86 = 3.09
Over 1.5
77%1.16
Over 2.5
55%1.52
Over 3.5
32%2.35
Under 1.5
23%4.75
Under 2.5
45%2.35
Under 3.5
68%1.56
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.3 = 10.5
Over 8.5
67%1.27
Over 9.5
67%1.44
Over 10.5
44%1.76
Under 8.5
33%3.30
Under 9.5
33%2.50
Under 10.5
56%1.95
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 3.5 = 6.2
Over 3.5
95%1.69
Over 4.5
95%2.32
Under 3.5
5%2.06
Under 4.5
5%1.51

Match Events

26'Goal Disallowed - FoulS. Jatta
45+2'S. Kingsley INS. Findlay out
46'L. Weinhandl INR. Fosso out
61'A. VallciRoughing
64'S. SeidlAssist: J. Gorenc Stankovic
68'E. Soglo
69'B. Spittal INT. Renaud out
69'S. Guendouz INA. Ba-Sy out
69'C. Miller INP. Kabore out
72'S. Wlodarczyk INB. Beganovic out
77'E. Soglo INA. Malic out
77'J. Hodl ING. Mamageishvili out
80'A. Kyziridis INJ. McCart out
81'J. Gorenc Stankovic INJ. Halwachs out

Lineups

Heart Of Midlothian
4-3-3Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Sturm Graz
4-4-2Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Alexander Schwolow1A. SchwolowAlexander Schwolow
Jordi Altena23J. AltenaJordi Altena
Malachi Fagan-Walcott64M. Fagan-WalcottMalachi Fagan-Walcott
Stephen Kingsley3S. KingsleyStephen Kingsley
Harry Milne18H. MilneHarry Milne
Blair Spittal16B. SpittalBlair Spittal
Oisin McEntee6O. McEnteeOisin McEntee
Severin Sabri Guendouz19S. Sabri GuendouzSeverin Sabri Guendouz
Alexandros Kyziridis89A. KyziridisAlexandros Kyziridis
Cláudio Braga10C. BragaCláudio Braga
Calvin Miller7C. MillerCalvin Miller
Daniil Khudyakov53D. KhudyakovDaniil Khudyakov
Jurgen Heil28J. HeilJurgen Heil
Albert Vallci5A. VallciAlbert Vallci
Jeyland Mitchell2J. MitchellJeyland Mitchell
Emran Soglo18E. SogloEmran Soglo
Simon Seidl19S. SeidlSimon Seidl
Luca Weinhandl39L. WeinhandlLuca Weinhandl
Jon Gorenc Stanković4J. Gorenc StankovićJon Gorenc Stanković
Jacob Hödl43J. HödlJacob Hödl
Szymon Włodarczyk17S. WłodarczykSzymon Włodarczyk
Seedy Jatta20S. JattaSeedy Jatta

Heart Of Midlothian Substitutes

17Stuart FindlayD
12Tom RenaudM
11Pierre Landry KaboréF
77Amadou Ba-SyF
5Jamie McCartD
28Zander ClarkG
30Ryan FultonG
22Tomas MagnussonM
21James WilsonF
29Sabah KerjotaF

Sturm Graz Substitutes

80Ryan FossoM
26Belmin BeganovićF
23Arjan MalićD
15Gizo MamageishviliM
40Julian HalwachsM
22Ammar HelacG
41Elias LorenzG
21Petar PetrovićD
30Paul KollerD
10Otar KiteishviliM
11Axel KayomboF
44Nelson WeiperF

Match Stats

Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz
64%Ball Possession36%
8Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards1
15Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal9
7Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box13
7Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots3
10Fouls14
2Offsides2
7Goalkeeper Saves3
460Total Passes264
364Passes Accurate179
79%Pass Accuracy68%

Team Comparison

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
1731Elo Rating 1724
2.32Attack 1.96
2.27Defense 1.75
86%Hit Rate 64%
17.6Shots per Game 14.4
6.5Shots on Target 4.7
9.5Corners per Game 5.5
1.8Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 1 historical meeting

Heart Of Midlothian 0%Draw 0%100% Sturm Graz
4Avg Goals
0%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
2W0D3L
24/07/2026
Raith RoversHeart Of Midlothian
01
W
21/07/2026
Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
40
L
17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
21
W
10/07/2026
LivingstonHeart Of Midlothian
21
L
16/05/2026
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
31
L
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
5W0D0L
24/07/2026
SeekirchenSturm Graz
03
W
21/07/2026
Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
40
W
15/07/2026
Sturm GrazPogon Szczecin
10
W
11/07/2026
Sturm GrazSanfrecce Hiroshima
41
W
08/07/2026
Sturm GrazKalsdorf
41
W

Referee Profile

Andris Treimanis, Latvia · 21 matches analysed

4.7Avg Yellows
4.7Avg Cards
26.0Avg Fouls
Stricter than 79% of referees analysed

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded

Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz Prediction

As a knockout-stage UEFA Champions League fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

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Key Factors for This Match

Heart Of Midlothian have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Heart Of Midlothian and Sturm Graz have met 1 times recently, averaging 4 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.