Italy vs Türkiye Prediction

Italy
3-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Türkiye
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna·Szymon Marciniak 05/10/2026
ItalyItaly
3-1
Finished
TürkiyeTürkiye

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.38
SignalHIGHModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+4.2%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.66
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Italy Rest
3 days
Türkiye Rest
3 days

Italy vs Türkiye: result, form and history

Italy beat Türkiye 3-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 5 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Italy had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Türkiye.

Türkiye tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 3.3 for Italy.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
76%1.38
X
15%5.20
2
9%7.50
Double Chance
1X
91%1.10
X2
24%3.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.75
No
50%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.03 + 0.75 = 2.78
Over 1.5
80%1.13
Over 2.5
60%1.53
Over 3.5
40%2.37
Under 1.5
20%5.00
Under 2.5
40%2.38
Under 3.5
60%1.59
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 3.7 = 8.8
Over 8.5
55%1.48
Over 9.5
44%1.86
Over 10.5
32%2.40
Under 8.5
45%2.35
Under 9.5
56%1.89
Under 10.5
68%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.1 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.61
Over 4.5
35%2.19
Under 3.5
45%2.23
Under 4.5
65%1.65

Match Events

26'Gianluca Scamacca
42'Gianluca ScamaccaFoul
47'Matteo RuggeriFoul
55'Zeki ÇelikFoul
55'Giovanni Di Lorenzo INMichael Kayode out
56'Matteo Ruggeri INRiccardo Calafiori out
56'Gianluca Scamacca INPio Esposito out
61'Aral SimsirAssist: Eren Elmalı
64'Riccardo CalafioriAssist: Nicolò Barella
70'Nicolò Barella INSandro Tonali out
70'İrfan Can Kahveci INBartuğ Elmaz out
70'Aral Simsir INIlhan Fakili out
79'Ismail Yüksek INKerem Aktürkoğlu out
81'Abdulkerim BardakçıHandball
84'Antonio Vergara INDavide Frattesi out
87'Pio EspositoAssist: Alessandro Romano
88'Yunus Akgün INDeniz Gül out
88'Ferdi Kadıoğlu INOğuz Aydın out

Lineups

Italy
4-3-3Coach: R. Mancini
Türkiye
5-4-1Coach: V. Montella
Avg rating6.99
Avg rating6.39
G. Donnarumma7.71G. Donnarumma
G. Di Lorenzo6.722G. Di Lorenzo
G. Mancini7.023G. Mancini
A. Bastoni7.06A. Bastoni
M. Ruggeri6.43M. Ruggeri
N. Barella7.618N. Barella
A. Romano7.64A. Romano
I. Doumbia6.715I. Doumbia
A. Vergara6.421A. Vergara
G. Scamacca7.911G. Scamacca
D. Maldini6.517D. Maldini
U. Çakır5.71U. Çakır
F. Kadıoğlu6.120F. Kadıoğlu
Z. Çelik5.82Z. Çelik
O. Kabak6.315O. Kabak
A. Bardakcı6.014A. Bardakcı
E. Elmalı6.913E. Elmalı
S. Özcan6.65S. Özcan
İ. Yüksek6.316İ. Yüksek
İ. Kahveci6.410İ. Kahveci
A. Şimşir7.221A. Şimşir
Y. Akgün6.619Y. Akgün

Italy Substitutes

7N. Cambiaghi
5R. Calafiori56'for Matteo Ruggeri64'8.0
12M. Carnesecchi
9F. Esposito56'for Gianluca Scamacca87'7.7
20S. Esposito
10N. Fagioli
16D. Frattesi84'for Antonio Vergara6.3
14S. Inacio
2M. Kayode55'for Giovanni Di Lorenzo6.2
19G. Scalvini
8S. Tonali70'for Nicolò Barella6.3
13G. Vicario

Türkiye Substitutes

4E. Topçu
8E. Tıknaz
23M. Şengezer
17M. Kabasakal
9D. Gül88'for Yunus Akgün6.7
11I. Fakili70'for Aral Simsir6.4
22M. Eskihellaç
6B. Elmaz70'for İrfan Can Kahveci6.5
3M. Demiral
12A. Bayındır
7K. Aktürkoğlu79'for Ismail Yüksek6.5
18O. Aydın88'for Ferdi Kadıoğlu6.3

Match Stats

ItalyTürkiye
45%Ball Possession55%
3Corner Kicks9
2Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal5
12Shots Inside Box7
3Shots Outside Box7
7Blocked Shots4
11Fouls9
5Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves3
451Total Passes554
394Passes Accurate496
87%Pass Accuracy90%

Team Comparison

ItalyItaly
TürkiyeTürkiye
1742Elo Rating 1630
1.96Attack 0.89
1.83Defense 0.28
46%Hit Rate 14%
14.7Shots per Game 15.2
5.1Shots on Target 4.7
3.3Corners per Game 5.9
2.2Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+112 Elo
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

ItalyItaly
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
TürkiyeTürkiye
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

ItalyItaly2Wins · 100%
Draws00%
TürkiyeTürkiye0Wins · 0%
4.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League28/09/2026
TürkiyeItaly
14
Euro Championship11/06/2021
TürkiyeItaly
03

Recent Form

ItalyItaly
6W1D3L
02/10/2026
FranceItaly
11
D
28/09/2026
TürkiyeItaly
14
W
25/09/2026
ItalyBelgium
02
L
07/06/2026
GreeceItaly
01
W
03/06/2026
LuxembourgItaly
01
W
31/03/2026
Bosnia & HerzegovinaItaly
4111
L
26/03/2026
ItalyNorthern Ireland
20
W
16/11/2025
ItalyNorway
14
L
13/11/2025
MoldovaItaly
02
W
14/10/2025
ItalyIsrael
30
W
TürkiyeTürkiye
5W0D5L
02/10/2026
BelgiumTürkiye
30
L
28/09/2026
TürkiyeItaly
14
L
25/09/2026
TürkiyeFrance
01
L
26/06/2026
TürkiyeUSA
32
W
20/06/2026
TürkiyeParaguay
01
L
14/06/2026
AustraliaTürkiye
20
L
07/06/2026
VenezuelaTürkiye
12
W
01/06/2026
TürkiyeFYR Macedonia
40
W
31/03/2026
KosovoTürkiye
01
W
26/03/2026
TürkiyeRomania
10
W

Referee Profile

Szymon Marciniak296 matches

4.22Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Szymon Marciniak4.20
Other referees4.28

4.20 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.28).

Cards come from 268 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance43107:2+510WDWW
2ItalyItaly42118:5+37WDWL
3BelgiumBelgium42026:5+16LWLW
4TürkiyeTürkiye40042:11-90LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance47:210
2ItalyItaly48:57
3BelgiumBelgium46:56
4TürkiyeTürkiye42:110

About the Italy vs Türkiye forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Italy and Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Italy are 2nd in the UEFA Nations League, 7 points ahead of Türkiye in 4th. League goal record so far: Italy 8-5, Türkiye 2-11. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Italy have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Italy and Türkiye have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.