Türkiye vs USA Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 3
Cup
Türkiye
3-2
Finished
HT 2-1
USA
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood· Mustapha Ghorbal, Algeria 26/06/2026
TürkiyeTürkiye
3-2
Finished
USAUSA

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.56
SignalGOODModel10%RiskHighGap+12.5%
Türkiye Rest
5 days
USA Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%3.92
X
30%4.15
2
33%1.80
Double Chance
1X
67%1.95
X2
63%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.53
No
49%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.27 = 2.54
Over 1.5
72%1.17
Over 2.5
46%1.57
Over 3.5
25%2.42
Under 1.5
28%4.83
Under 2.5
54%2.38
Under 3.5
75%1.56
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.3 = 8.7
Over 8.5
52%1.52
Over 9.5
43%1.91
Over 10.5
32%2.40
Under 8.5
48%2.40
Under 9.5
57%1.85
Under 10.5
68%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.3
Over 3.5
49%3.07
Over 4.5
28%4.70
Under 3.5
51%1.33
Under 4.5
72%1.17

Match Events

3'A. TrustyAssist: S. Berhalter
10'A. GulerAssist: B. Yilmaz
19'S. BerhalterRoughing
31'B. YilmazAssist: O. Kokcu
49'S. Berhalter
58'T. Weah INC. Pulisic out
76'G. Reyna INS. Dest out
77'B. Aaronson INA. Zendejas out
77'J. Scally INA. Freeman out
84'Z. Celik INC. Soyuncu out
84'K. Yildiz INC. Uzun out
86'W. McKennie INM. Tillman out
88'O. Kokcu INK. Ayhan out
90+2'O. Aydin INM. Muldur out
90+2'B. Yilmaz INI. Kahveci out
90+8'K. Ayhan

Lineups

Türkiye
3-4-2-1Coach: Vincenzo Montella
USA
4-3-3Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Uğurcan Çakır23U. ÇakırUğurcan Çakır
Zeki Çelik2Z. ÇelikZeki Çelik
Ozan Kabak15O. KabakOzan Kabak
Abdülkerim Bardakcı14A. BardakcıAbdülkerim Bardakcı
Oğuz Aydın24O. AydınOğuz Aydın
Salih Özcan5S. ÖzcanSalih Özcan
Orkun Kökçü6O. KökçüOrkun Kökçü
Eren Elmalı13E. ElmalıEren Elmalı
Arda Güler8A. GülerArda Güler
Kenan Yıldız11K. YıldızKenan Yıldız
Barış Alper Yılmaz21B. Alper YılmazBarış Alper Yılmaz
Matt Turner1M. TurnerMatt Turner
Joe Scally23J. ScallyJoe Scally
Miles Robinson12M. RobinsonMiles Robinson
Mark McKenzie22M. McKenzieMark McKenzie
Auston Trusty6A. TrustyAuston Trusty
Weston McKennie8W. McKennieWeston McKennie
Sebastian Berhalter14S. BerhalterSebastian Berhalter
Giovanni Reyna7G. ReynaGiovanni Reyna
Brenden Aaronson11B. AaronsonBrenden Aaronson
Ricardo Pepi9R. PepiRicardo Pepi
Tim Weah21T. WeahTim Weah

Türkiye Substitutes

4Çağlar SöyüncüD
26Can UzunM
22Kaan AyhanD
18Mert MüldürD
17İrfan Can KahveciM
12Altay BayındırG
1Mert GünokG
3Merih DemiralD
20Ferdi KadıoğluD
25Samet AkaydınD
10Hakan ÇalhanoğluM
19Yunus AkgünF
16İsmail YüksekM
9Deniz GülF
7Kerem AktürkoğluF

USA Substitutes

10Christian PulišićM
2Sergiño DestD
16Alexander FreemanD
26Alex ZendejasF
17Malik TillmanM
25Chris BradyG
24Matthew FreeseG
5Antonee RobinsonD
3Chris RichardsD
13Tim ReamD
18Maximilian ArfstenM
4Tyler AdamsM
20Folarin BalogunF
19Haji WrightF

Match Stats

TürkiyeUSA
48%Ball Possession52%
2Corner Kicks9
0Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots18
3Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box15
1Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots5
13Fouls13
2Offsides5
5Goalkeeper Saves1
435Total Passes469
333Passes Accurate397
77%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

TürkiyeTürkiye
USAUSA
1676Elo Rating 1691
1.12Attack 2.01
1.84Defense 1.20
58%Hit Rate 54%
19.8Shots per Game 11.1
4.3Shots on Target 3.5
6.4Corners per Game 5.1
1.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

TürkiyeTürkiye
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)

Recent Form

TürkiyeTürkiye
3W0D2L
20/06/2026
TürkiyeParaguay
01
L
14/06/2026
AustraliaTürkiye
20
L
07/06/2026
VenezuelaTürkiye
12
W
01/06/2026
TürkiyeFYR Macedonia
40
W
31/03/2026
KosovoTürkiye
01
W
USAUSA
3W0D2L
19/06/2026
USAAustralia
20
W13/06/2026
USAParaguay
41
W
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
L
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
L

Referee Profile

Mustapha Ghorbal, Algeria · 8 matches analysed

3.5Avg Yellows
3.6Avg Cards
30.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 12% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0
Canada0
Morocco3
Paraguay0
France1
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland04
Colombia03
On penalties
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway10
England11
After extra time
Argentina12
Switzerland10
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Spain01
Argentina00
After extra time
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0

Türkiye vs USA Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Türkiye and USA have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.