Italy vs Belgium Prediction

UEFA Nations LeagueWorld World · League A - 1
Cup
Italy
0-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Belgium
Stadio Olimpico, Rome·Daniel Siebert 25/09/2026
ItalyItaly
0-2
Finished
BelgiumBelgium

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Value Analysis
78%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.36
SignalSTRONGModel78%SurpriseMediumGap+5.4%
Italy Rest
109 days
Belgium Rest
76 days

Italy vs Belgium: result, form and history

Belgium beat Italy 2-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 25 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Italy have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.20
X
29%3.60
2
28%3.10
Double Chance
1X
72%1.36
X2
57%1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.50
No
45%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 0.96 = 2.35
Over 1.5
79%1.18
Over 2.5
56%1.65
Over 3.5
37%2.50
Under 1.5
21%4.55
Under 2.5
44%2.27
Under 3.5
63%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.7 = 10.1
Over 8.5
57%1.52
Over 9.5
48%1.88
Over 10.5
38%2.38
Under 8.5
43%2.42
Under 9.5
52%1.90
Under 10.5
62%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.2
Over 3.5
40%1.91
Over 4.5
22%3.00
Under 3.5
60%1.81
Under 4.5
78%1.36

Match Events

20'Mika GodtsAssist: Kevin De Bruyne
25'Nicolas RaskinNot retreating
29'Diego MoreiraTime wasting
58'Kevin De Bruyne INHans Vanaken out
58'Diego Moreira INDodi Lukebakio out
63'Gianluca ManciniFoul
65'Diego Coppola INGiorgio Scalvini out
65'Pio Esposito INDaniel Maldini out
65'Alessandro Romano INDavide Frattesi out
69'Dodi LukebakioAssist: Charles De Ketelaere
74'Nicolas Raskin INRomeo Lavia out
80'Romeo LaviaFoul
80'Nicolò Barella INIssa Doumbia out
80'Nicolo Cambiaghi INMohamed Alì Zoma out
83'Mika Godts INMatias Fernandez-Pardo out
84'Charles De Ketelaere INRomelu Lukaku out
89'Matias Fernandez-PardoFoul
90+1'Daniel MaldiniFoul
90+4'Gianluigi DonnarummaArgument
90+4'Romelu LukakuArgument

Lineups

Italy
4-3-3Coach: R. Mancini
Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: M. van Bommel
Avg rating6.56
Avg rating7.20
G. Donnarumma7.81G. Donnarumma
G. Di Lorenzo6.522G. Di Lorenzo
G. Mancini6.123G. Mancini
D. Coppola6.86D. Coppola
R. Calafiori6.75R. Calafiori
N. Barella7.018N. Barella
A. Romano6.54A. Romano
S. Tonali6.38S. Tonali
M. Kean6.49M. Kean
F. Esposito6.67F. Esposito
N. Cambiaghi7.221N. Cambiaghi
S. Lammens7.81S. Lammens
T. Castagne7.421T. Castagne
N. Ngoy7.515N. Ngoy
B. Mechele7.44B. Mechele
M. De Cuyper7.55M. De Cuyper
Y. Tielemans6.58Y. Tielemans
N. Raskin6.723N. Raskin
Diego Moreira6.919D. Moreira
K. De Bruyne7.77K. De Bruyne
M. Godts8.210M. Godts
C. De Ketelaere7.717C. De Ketelaere

Italy Substitutes

12M. Carnesecchi
17M. Zoma80'for Nicolo Cambiaghi6.2
3H. Ahanor
15I. Doumbia80'for Nicolò Barella6.0
16D. Frattesi65'for Alessandro Romano6.2
2M. Kayode
20D. Maldini65'for Pio Esposito90+1'6.3
13R. Mandragora
10G. Raspadori
19G. Scalvini65'for Diego Coppola6.4
11G. Scamacca
14G. Vicario

Belgium Substitutes

22M. Fernandez-Pardo83'for Mika Godts89'6.4
16M. Keita
6R. Lavia74'for Nicolas Raskin80'6.6
9R. Lukaku84'for Charles De Ketelaere90+4'6.5
14D. Lukebakio58'for Diego Moreira69'7.6
11L. Openda
18J. Seys
3A. Theate
20H. Vanaken58'for Kevin De Bruyne7.0
12M. Vandevoordt
2Z. Debast
13J. De Busser

Match Stats

ItalyBelgium
56%Ball Possession44%
4Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards4
21Total Shots19
6Shots on Goal8
10Shots off Goal5
14Shots Inside Box11
7Shots Outside Box8
5Blocked Shots6
12Fouls11
1Offsides0
6Goalkeeper Saves6
590Total Passes464
539Passes Accurate408
11Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

ItalyItaly
BelgiumBelgium
1742Elo Rating 1787
1.96Attack 1.43
1.83Defense 1.45
46%Hit Rate 39%
14.7Shots per Game 11.4
5.1Shots on Target 4.8
3.3Corners per Game 2.9
2.2Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

ItalyItaly
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

ItalyItaly4Wins · 80%
Draws120%
BelgiumBelgium0Wins · 0%
2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League14/11/2024
BelgiumItaly
01
UEFA Nations League10/10/2024
ItalyBelgium
22
UEFA Nations League10/10/2021
ItalyBelgium
21
Euro Championship02/07/2021
BelgiumItaly
12
Euro Championship13/06/2016
BelgiumItaly
02

Recent Form

ItalyItaly
8W0D2L
07/06/2026
GreeceItaly
01
W
03/06/2026
LuxembourgItaly
01
W
31/03/2026
Bosnia & HerzegovinaItaly
4111
L
26/03/2026
ItalyNorthern Ireland
20
W
16/11/2025
ItalyNorway
14
L
13/11/2025
MoldovaItaly
02
W
14/10/2025
ItalyIsrael
30
W
11/10/2025
EstoniaItaly
13
W
08/09/2025
IsraelItaly
45
W
05/09/2025
ItalyEstonia
50
W
BelgiumBelgium
6W3D1L
10/07/2026
SpainBelgium
21
L07/07/2026
USABelgium
14
W01/07/2026
BelgiumSenegal
3222
W27/06/2026
New ZealandBelgium
15
W21/06/2026
BelgiumIran
00
D15/06/2026
BelgiumEgypt
11
D
06/06/2026
BelgiumTunisia
50
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
W
18/11/2025
BelgiumLiechtenstein
70
W
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D

Referee Profile

Daniel Siebert258 matches

4.48Cards per match
4.31Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daniel Siebert4.48
Other referees4.20

4.48 cards a match, 0.28 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.20).

Cards come from 243 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance43107:2+510WDWW
2ItalyItaly42118:5+37WDWL
3BelgiumBelgium42026:5+16LWLW
4TürkiyeTürkiye40042:11-90LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance47:210
2ItalyItaly48:57
3BelgiumBelgium46:56
4TürkiyeTürkiye42:110

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This match

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About the Italy vs Belgium forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Italy and Belgium in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Italy are 2nd in the UEFA Nations League, 1 point ahead of Belgium in 3rd. League goal record so far: Italy 8-5, Belgium 6-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Italy have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.