Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction
World · League Stage - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.17
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseHighGap-5.8%
Jagiellonia Rest
5 days
Ararat-Armenia Rest
5 days
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: the result in context
Jagiellonia beat Ararat-Armenia 3-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 15 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Ararat-Armenia had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Jagiellonia.
Referee Anastasios Papapetrou averages 4.30 cards a game, 0.72 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
166%1.40
X19%4.85
215%7.50
Double Chance
1X85%1.10
X234%2.88
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.80
No48%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.3 + 0.95 = 3.25
Over 1.580%1.17
Over 2.561%1.60
Over 3.539%2.50
Under 1.520%4.80
Under 2.539%2.33
Under 3.561%1.50
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
11'Zidane BanjaquiAssist: Maxence Carlier
13'Kamil Jóźwiak
17'Zidane Banjaqui INZhirayr Shaghoyan out
20'Taras RomanczukFoul
30'Bruno WilsonFoul
38'Rodrigo ConceiçãoAssist: Ferslev Anders Klynge
49'Manuel Jorge da Silva CruzDissent
51'Ousmane SowAssist: Jesús Imaz
57'Elvin TeraFoul
66'Ousmane Sow INJeremy Agbonifo out
68'Elvin Tera INBernardo Oliveira Dias out
68'Luís Felipe Fernandes Rodrigues INKaren Muradyan out
68'Kamil Jóźwiak INDušan Stojinović out
68'Jesús Imaz INEryk Kozlowski out
76'Artur Serobyan INCarlos Henrique França Freires out
76'Sandro Lima INArayik Eloyan out
79'Kajetan·Szmyt INAleksandar·Cirkovic out
80'Taras Romanczuk INSergio Lozano out
83'Dušan StojinovićTime wasting
84'Eryk KozlowskiTime wasting
Lineups
JagielloniaArarat-Armenia
3-4-3Coach: TulipaAvg ratingAvg rating
50S. Abramowicz
27R. Conceição
5B. Vital
4Y. Kobayashi
20B. Wdowik
72K. Jóźwiak
6T. Romanczuk
19A. Klynge
7K. Szmyt
11J. Imaz
30O. Sow
98J. Bravim
43B. Wilson
17M. Carlier
5L. Felipe
2H. Oliveira
8J. Balanta
20A. Tera
16E. Grigoryan
77A. Serobyan
91S. Lima
11Z. BanjaquiJagiellonia Substitutes
10J. Agbonifo66'for Ousmane Sow
32A. Ćirković79'for Kajetan·Szmyt
14H. Finndell
44A. Konstantopoulos
21Sergio Lozano80'for Taras Romanczuk
23Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia
1M. Perchel
3D. Stojinović68'for Kamil Jóźwiak83'
85Eryk Kozlowski68'for Jesús Imaz84'
Ararat-Armenia Substitutes
10A. Ambartsumyan
7Z. Shaghoyan17'for Zidane Banjaqui
14Bruno Pereira
25A. Ndour
19K. Muradyan68'for Luís Felipe Fernandes Rodrigues
47A. Malis
95França76'for Artur Serobyan
9A. Eloyan76'for Sandro Lima
70Bernardo Oliveira Dias68'replaced by Elvin Tera
1A. Nersesyan
Match Stats
JagielloniaArarat-Armenia 42%Ball Possession58%
2Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards2
13Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal7
9Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots4
22Fouls14
6Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
388Total Passes524
328Passes Accurate465
12Free Kicks22
Team Comparison
JagielloniaArarat-Armenia1605Elo Rating 1630
1.19Attack 1.33
1.14Defense 1.39
23%Hit Rate 44%
12.7Shots per Game 14.2
3.6Shots on Target 3.2
2.7Corners per Game 2.6
1.8Cards per Game 2.4
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.24 goals
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
Jagiellonia- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Ararat-Armenia- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.1 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Recent Form
Jagiellonia4W0D6L
10/10/2026Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
JagielloniaGornik Zabrze13
L03/10/2026Jagiellonia
Polonia Warszawa
JagielloniaPolonia Warszawa12
L29/09/2026Jagiellonia
Suduva Marijampole
20/09/2026JagielloniaSuduva Marijampole50
WJagiellonia
Legia Warszawa13
L16/09/2026
Olympiakos PiraeusJagiellonia21
L11/09/2026
Wisla KrakowJagiellonia20
L06/09/2026Jagiellonia
Slask Wroclaw21
W03/09/2026
Lech PoznanJagiellonia21
L30/08/2026
Raków CzęstochowaJagiellonia25
W27/08/2026
FC Iberia 1999Jagiellonia12
WArarat-Armenia5W3D2L
10/10/2026Ararat-Armenia
Alashkert
AraratArarat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia
Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea CraiovaArarat-Armenia
Ararat-ArmeniaAlashkert11
D03/10/2026AraratArarat-Armenia
AraratArarat-Armenia04
W20/09/2026
ShirakArarat-Armenia
ShirakArarat-Armenia13
W16/09/2026Ararat-Armenia
Sparta Praha
Ararat-ArmeniaSparta Praha14
L11/09/2026Ararat-Armenia
Syunik
05/09/2026Ararat-ArmeniaSyunik30
WAraratArarat-Armenia01
W31/08/2026
Pyunik YerevanArarat-Armenia
27/08/2026Pyunik YerevanArarat-Armenia21
LArarat-ArmeniaUniversitatea Craiova10
W23/08/2026Ararat-Armenia
Sardarapat
20/08/2026Ararat-ArmeniaSardarapat11
DUniversitatea CraiovaArarat-Armenia11
DReferee Profile
4.30Cards per match
4.13Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
28.1Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.30 cards a match, 0.72 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.02).
Cards come from 113 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:8 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 |  Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:9 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Europa League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Kairat Almaty
Mjallby AIF
TrabzonsporLillestromArarat-Armenia
Kauno Žalgiris
St. Truiden
FK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFI
Aarhus
LarneSaburtalo
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia RrogozhinëGornik Zabrze
KuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagiellonia
RangersLech Poznan
KI Klaksvik
Lincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull Salzburg
FC Thun
Vikingur Reykjavik
Heart Of Midlothian
Tromso
Hradec Králové
PAOK
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hammarby FFAnderlecht
FC ST. GallenBenfica
TwenteBeşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
PafosKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianTromsoHradec KrálovéPAOKMaccabi Tel AvivHammarby FFAnderlechtFC ST. GallenBenficaTwenteBeşiktaşFC MidtjyllandPafosExplore more predictions
This match
About the Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia forecast
This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League table
In the UEFA Europa League table, Jagiellonia are 27th and Ararat-Armenia 36th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Jagiellonia 4-6, Ararat-Armenia 2-11. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.