Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa Prediction

Jagiellonia
1-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Legia Warszawa
Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok·Karol Arys 20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.51
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+3.9%
Jagiellonia Rest
3 days
Legia Warszawa Rest
7 days

Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa: the result in context

Legia Warszawa beat Jagiellonia 3-1 in the Ekstraklasa on 20 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.2 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 7. Referee Karol Arys averages 3.09 cards a game, 1.31 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.63
X
27%3.40
2
35%2.43
Double Chance
1X
65%1.51
X2
62%1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.60
No
42%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.57 + 1.15 = 2.72
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
54%1.73
Over 3.5
32%2.75
Under 1.5
23%4.00
Under 2.5
46%2.06
Under 3.5
68%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.3 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.72
Over 9.5
46%2.13
Over 10.5
35%2.92
Under 8.5
42%1.98
Under 9.5
54%1.61
Under 10.5
65%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.9 = 3.6
Over 3.5
49%-
Over 4.5
29%-
Under 3.5
51%-
Under 4.5
71%-

Match Events

15'Rafał Augustyniak(Penalty)
20'Nik PrelecOG
35'Jesús Imaz(Penalty)
45'Rúben Vinagre INArkadiusz Reca out
57'Jan Kuchta INLukasz Zjawinski out
57'Mateusz Szczepaniak INJakub Zewlakow out
57'Michal Sevcik INRafal Adamski out
65'Norbert Wojtuszek INJeremy Agbonifo out
65'Ferslev Anders Klynge INSergio Lozano out
75'Paweł WszołekAssist: Rafał Augustyniak
80'Penalty cancelledJeremy Agbonifo
84'Kajetan·Szmyt INAleksandar·Cirkovic out
84'Nik Prelec INDimitris Rallis out
86'Rafal AdamskiFoul
87'Paweł Wszołek INKacper Chodyna out
90+1'Eryk Kozlowski INDawid Drachal out

Lineups

Jagiellonia
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Siemieniec
Legia Warszawa
3-4-2-1Coach: M. Papszun
Avg rating6.27
Avg rating6.50
S. Abramowicz5.550S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek6.315N. Wojtuszek
Bernardo Vital6.75B. Vital
A. Konstantopoulos6.544A. Konstantopoulos
Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia7.023G. Manuel Serrão Montóia
Eryk Kozlowski6.985E. Kozlowski
A. Klynge6.119A. Klynge
Rodrigo Conceição6.427R. Conceição
Jesús Imaz5.711J. Imaz
K. Szmyt6.37K. Szmyt
N. Prelec5.499N. Prelec
O. Hindrich6.589O. Hindrich
Z. Arsenić6.324Z. Arsenić
R. Augustyniak7.38R. Augustyniak
Robert Deziel6.05R. Deziel
M. Ševčík6.123M. Ševčík
W. Urbański6.553W. Urbański
B. Kapustka6.767B. Kapustka
Rúben Vinagre6.219R. Vinagre
P. Wszołek7.122P. Wszołek
M. Szczepaniak6.417M. Szczepaniak
J. Kuchta6.87J. Kuchta

Jagiellonia Substitutes

20B. Wdowik
32A. Ćirković84'for Kajetan·Szmyt6.5
8D. Drachal90+1'for Eryk Kozlowski
14H. Finndell
72K. Jóźwiak
21Sergio Lozano65'for Ferslev Anders Klynge6.2
1M. Perchel
2C. Polak
9Dimitris Rallis84'for Nik Prelec5.9
3D. Stojinović
17Y. Sylla
10J. Agbonifo65'for Norbert Wojtuszek6.8

Legia Warszawa Substitutes

79Ł. Zjawiński57'for Jan Kuchta6.6
20J. Żewłakow57'for Mateusz Szczepaniak6.9
27Bogdan V'Yunnik
4D. Szymański
13A. Reca45'for Rúben Vinagre6.4
11K. Chodyna87'for Paweł Wszołek5.9
1I. Brkić
6Henrique Arreiol
9R. Adamski57'for Michal Sevcik86'6.3
91K. Piątkowski

Match Stats

JagielloniaLegia Warszawa
68%Ball Possession32%
4Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots10
4Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal5
9Shots Inside Box7
9Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots2
13Fouls10
3Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
520Total Passes243
450Passes Accurate172
10Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

JagielloniaJagiellonia
Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
1605Elo Rating 1658
1.19Attack 1.90
1.14Defense 2.09
23%Hit Rate 56%
12.7Shots per Game 13.3
3.6Shots on Target 4.3
2.7Corners per Game 3.7
1.8Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

JagielloniaJagiellonia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

JagielloniaJagiellonia2Wins · 20%
Draws550%
Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa3Wins · 30%
3.2Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Ekstraklasa01/03/2026
JagielloniaLegia Warszawa
22
Ekstraklasa24/09/2025
Legia WarszawaJagiellonia
00
Ekstraklasa13/04/2025
Legia WarszawaJagiellonia
01
Cup26/02/2025
Legia WarszawaJagiellonia
31
Ekstraklasa06/10/2024
JagielloniaLegia Warszawa
11
Ekstraklasa07/04/2024
Legia WarszawaJagiellonia
11
Ekstraklasa01/10/2023
JagielloniaLegia Warszawa
20
Ekstraklasa12/05/2023
Legia WarszawaJagiellonia
51
Ekstraklasa29/10/2022
JagielloniaLegia Warszawa
25
Ekstraklasa13/05/2022
JagielloniaLegia Warszawa
22

Referee Profile

Karol Arys126 matches

3.09Cards per match
2.90Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Karol Arys3.09
Other referees4.40

3.09 cards a match, 1.31 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.40).

Cards come from 70 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1182120:10+1026DWDWW
2Lech PoznanLech Poznan1081127:9+1825WWWLW
3Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1165022:9+1323DWWDW
4Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1063115:6+921WWWWD
5Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1254315:15019DWLLW
6GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1160522:16+618LWWWL
7Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1153317:14+318DLWWD
8Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1152419:17+217DWLWW
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1143413:18-515LLWLW
10Wisla PlockWisla Plock1042410:15-514WLWWD
11Motor LublinMotor Lublin1234517:21-413DWWDL
12Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1133513:16-312DWLLL
13JagielloniaJagiellonia1040613:17-412LLLLW
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1117314:15-110DLDDD
15Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1122716:21-58LLWDL
16Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom112279:24-158LLLLD
17Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1113714:22-86LLLLL
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa1120915:26-116WLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1120:1026
2Lech PoznanLech Poznan1027:925
3Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1122:923
4Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1015:621
5Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1215:1519
6GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1122:1618
7Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1117:1418
8Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1119:1717
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1113:1815
10Wisla PlockWisla Plock1010:1514
11Motor LublinMotor Lublin1217:2113
12Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1113:1612
13JagielloniaJagiellonia1013:1712
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1114:1510
15Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1116:218
16Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom119:248
17Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1114:226
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa1115:266
Relegation

About the Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa forecast

The forecasts for this Ekstraklasa match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in the Ekstraklasa table

In the Ekstraklasa table, Legia Warszawa are 3rd and Jagiellonia 13th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Jagiellonia 13-17, Legia Warszawa 22-9. The full standings are on the Ekstraklasa Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Legia Warszawa have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.