Kazakhstan vs Moldova Prediction

Kazakhstan
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Moldova
Astana Arena, Astana·Marian Barbu 02/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-2.4%
Value Analysis
56%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.89
SignalNEUTRALModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+4.2%
Kazakhstan Rest
2 days
Moldova Rest
2 days

Kazakhstan vs Moldova: result, form and history

Moldova beat Kazakhstan 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 2 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.89
X
25%3.26
2
18%4.60
Double Chance
1X
82%1.20
X2
43%1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%2.15
No
57%1.64
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.8 + 0.63 = 2.43
Over 1.5
68%1.44
Over 2.5
44%2.42
Over 3.5
25%4.60
Under 1.5
32%2.60
Under 2.5
56%1.55
Under 3.5
75%1.16
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.8 = 9.2
Over 8.5
55%1.73
Over 9.5
45%2.21
Over 10.5
33%2.92
Under 8.5
45%2.02
Under 9.5
55%1.62
Under 10.5
67%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.2
Over 3.5
61%-
Over 4.5
41%2.02
Under 3.5
39%-
Under 4.5
59%1.75

Match Events

45'Ramazan Orazov INErkin Tapalov out
45'Elkhan Astanov INAzamat Tuyakbaev out
45'Vladimir Fratea INNikita Motpan out
45+1'Nicky Clescenco
50'Petru popescuAssist: Sergiu Perciun
59'Nicky Clescenco INVictor Stina out
59'Ramazan·Karimov INArtur Shushenachev out
64'Nuraly AlipAssist: Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
66'Aleksandr Mrynskiy INNauryzbek Zhagorov out
74'Temirlan Erlanov INSergey Malyy out
75'Oleg Reabciuk INMihail Stefan out
80'Galymzhan KenzhebekFoul
86'Ioan-Calin Revenco INOvidiu David out
86'Vadim Rață INDaniel Dumbravanu out
89'Yan VorogovskiyFoul

Lineups

Kazakhstan
4-2-3-1Coach: J. van 't Schip
Moldova
5-3-2Coach: L. Popescu
Avg rating6.65
Avg rating6.67
A. Zarutskiy7.516A. Zarutskiy
A. Mrynskiy6.613A. Mrynskiy
T. Erlanov6.723T. Erlanov
N. Alip8.03N. Alip
Y. Vorogovskiy6.511Y. Vorogovskiy
R. Orazov6.820R. Orazov
D. Karaman7.018D. Karaman
E. Astanov6.821E. Astanov
B. Islamkhan7.79B. Islamkhan
G. Kenzhebek5.47G. Kenzhebek
R. Karimov6.319R. Karimov
D. Celeadnic6.012D. Celeadnic
I. Revenco6.98I. Revenco
V. Baboglo6.74V. Baboglo
I. Iovu6.818I. Iovu
M. Gherasimencov6.66M. Gherasimencov
O. Reabciuk6.12O. Reabciuk
Vladimir Fratea6.514V. Fratea
V. Raţă5.922V. Raţă
S. Perciun7.79S. Perciun
Petru Popescu8.115P. Popescu
N. Cleșcenco8.220N. Cleșcenco

Kazakhstan Substitutes

12T. Anarbekov
8Z. Amir
17S. Basmanov
5D. Kasabulat
6A. Kassym
2S. Maliy74'for Temirlan Erlanov6.1
10A. Shushenachev59'for Ramazan·Karimov6.4
22E. Tapalov45'for Ramazan Orazov6.2
15A. Tuyakbayev45'for Elkhan Astanov6.4
4N. Zhagorov66'for Aleksandr Mrynskiy5.9
14G. Zhukov
1Bekkhan Shayzada

Moldova Substitutes

13S. Cojocari
5C. Cucoș
17O. David86'for Ioan-Calin Revenco6.3
19D. Dumbrăvanu86'for Vadim Rață6.3
16D. Forov
21D. Mandrîcenco
7N. Moțpan45'for Vladimir Fratea6.2
3M. Ștefan75'for Oleg Reabciuk6.4
11V. Stînă59'for Nicky Clescenco6.3
23A. Kozhukhar
10Ș. Bodișteanu
1E. Tîmbur

Match Stats

KazakhstanMoldova
65%Ball Possession35%
11Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards0
19Total Shots16
4Shots on Goal8
9Shots off Goal8
10Shots Inside Box9
9Shots Outside Box7
6Blocked Shots0
10Fouls10
0Offsides1
6Goalkeeper Saves2
584Total Passes315
507Passes Accurate249
10Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

KazakhstanKazakhstan
MoldovaMoldova
1372Elo Rating 1312
1.27Attack 0.79
1.31Defense 0.60
0%Hit Rate 23%
14.3Shots per Game 14.4
3.1Shots on Target 4.3
5.6Corners per Game 5.4
2.4Cards per Game 1.1

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

KazakhstanKazakhstan
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
MoldovaMoldova
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

KazakhstanKazakhstan1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
MoldovaMoldova1Wins · 50%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League29/03/2022
KazakhstanMoldova
5041
UEFA Nations League24/03/2022
MoldovaKazakhstan
12

Recent Form

KazakhstanKazakhstan
1W4D5L
29/09/2026
SlovakiaKazakhstan
21
L
26/09/2026
Faroe IslandsKazakhstan
11
D
09/06/2026
HungaryKazakhstan
31
L
06/06/2026
ArmeniaKazakhstan
11
D
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D
13/10/2025
FYR MacedoniaKazakhstan
11
D
10/10/2025
KazakhstanLiechtenstein
40
W
07/09/2025
BelgiumKazakhstan
60
L
04/09/2025
KazakhstanWales
01
L
09/06/2025
KazakhstanFYR Macedonia
01
L
MoldovaMoldova
0W4D6L
29/09/2026
MoldovaFaroe Islands
11
D
26/09/2026
SlovakiaMoldova
20
L
09/06/2026
ArmeniaMoldova
11
D
05/06/2026
MoldovaBulgaria
22
D
16/11/2025
IsraelMoldova
41
L
13/11/2025
MoldovaItaly
02
L
14/10/2025
EstoniaMoldova
11
D
09/09/2025
NorwayMoldova
111
L
05/09/2025
MoldovaIsrael
04
L
09/06/2025
ItalyMoldova
20
L

Referee Profile

Marian Barbu162 matches

4.56Cards per match
4.40Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marian Barbu4.56
Other referees4.60

4.56 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.60).

Cards come from 118 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SlovakiaSlovakia43109:2+710WDWW
2Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands40405:504DDDD
3MoldovaMoldova41123:8-54LWDL
4KazakhstanKazakhstan40225:7-22DLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SlovakiaSlovakia49:210
2Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands45:54
3MoldovaMoldova43:84
4KazakhstanKazakhstan45:72
Promotion

About the Kazakhstan vs Moldova forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Kazakhstan and Moldova in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Moldova are 3rd in the UEFA Nations League, 2 points ahead of Kazakhstan in 4th. League goal record so far: Kazakhstan 5-7, Moldova 3-8. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Kazakhstan and Moldova have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.