Luton vs Notts County Prediction

League OneEngland England · Regular Season - 2
Luton
2-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Notts County
Kenilworth Road, Luton· B. Speedie 22/08/2026
LutonLuton
2-2
Finished
Notts CountyNotts County

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.41
SignalSOLIDModel45%RiskMediumGap+5.8%
Luton Rest
7 days
Notts County Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.62
X
26%4.00
2
21%5.00
Double Chance
1X
79%1.16
X2
47%2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.73
No
49%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.54 + 0.99 = 2.53
Over 1.5
70%1.22
Over 2.5
49%1.72
Over 3.5
28%2.75
Under 1.5
30%4.00
Under 2.5
51%2.08
Under 3.5
72%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.1 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.45
Over 9.5
51%1.80
Over 10.5
40%2.40
Under 8.5
40%2.50
Under 9.5
49%1.91
Under 10.5
60%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
48%-
Over 4.5
29%-
Under 3.5
52%-
Under 4.5
71%-

Match Events

18'J. Clark ING. Kodua out
31'L. SmythFoul
32'G. JohnstonFoul
39'S. RobertsonFoul
42'N. Wells(Penalty)
45'K. NaismithFoul
45+1'C. Roberts
47'K. PalmerFoul
56'N. WellsFoul
61'O. CooperAssist: N. Tsaroulla
62'E. Lawrence INB. Benagr out
62'N. Wells INC. Marshall out
62'L. Smyth INC. Grant out
68'C. MarshallAssist: K. Palmer
72'S. Robertson INH. Mustapha out
73'N. Tsaroulla INI. Samuels-Smith out
73'C. Roberts INL. Ndlovu out
80'I. Jones INH. Ashby out
86'D. Lipsiuc INM. Baker out
86'O. Cooper INQ. Kouhyar out
90+3'L. WalshUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+3'H. MustaphaUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Luton
4-1-4-1Coach: Jack Wilshere
Notts County
5-3-2Coach: Martin Paterson
Josh Keeley24J. KeeleyJosh Keeley
Isaiah Jones25I. JonesIsaiah Jones
Mads Andersen5M. AndersenMads Andersen
George Johnston6G. JohnstonGeorge Johnston
Kal Naismith3K. NaismithKal Naismith
Liam Walsh8L. WalshLiam Walsh
Jake Richards7J. RichardsJake Richards
Jordan Clark18J. ClarkJordan Clark
Kasey Palmer45K. PalmerKasey Palmer
Emilio Lawrence11E. LawrenceEmilio Lawrence
Nahki Wells21N. WellsNahki Wells
James Belshaw1J. BelshawJames Belshaw
Nick Tsaroulla25N. TsaroullaNick Tsaroulla
James Gibbons2J. GibbonsJames Gibbons
Lucas Ness12L. NessLucas Ness
Jacob Bedeau4J. BedeauJacob Bedeau
Darius Lipsiuc14D. LipsiucDarius Lipsiuc
Oliver Cooper8O. CooperOliver Cooper
Scott Robertson20S. RobertsonScott Robertson
Jack Evans15J. EvansJack Evans
Luka Smyth19L. SmythLuka Smyth
Callum Roberts7C. RobertsCallum Roberts

Luton Substitutes

30Gideon KoduaF
31Benedict BenagrD
9Callum MarshallF
33Harrison AshbyD
1James SheaG
2Hakeem OdofinD
12Joe JohnsonD

Notts County Substitutes

11Conor GrantM
42Hindolo MustaphaM
26Ishé Samuels-SmithD
39Lee NdlovuF
44Matthew BakerD
17Qamaruddin KouhyarM
21Harry GriffithsG

Match Stats

LutonNotts County
58%Ball Possession42%
8Corner Kicks3
5Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal0
9Shots Inside Box2
5Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
15Fouls18
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
418Total Passes311
331Passes Accurate221
79%Pass Accuracy71%

Team Comparison

LutonLuton
Notts CountyNotts County
1636Elo Rating 1605
1.22Attack 1.04
1.12Defense 1.86
19%Hit Rate 17%
12.0Shots per Game 11.1
3.9Shots on Target 3.5
4.5Corners per Game 5.3
1.7Cards per Game 2.6

Game State Tendencies

LutonLuton
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.2 in first half)
Notts CountyNotts County
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

LutonLuton
3W1D1L
15/08/2026
ReadingLuton
34
W
08/08/2026
GillinghamLuton
03
W
02/08/2026
LutonGO Ahead Eagles
01
L
25/07/2026
LutonAl Kholood
20
W
18/07/2026
BarnetLuton
22
D
Notts CountyNotts County
0W2D3L
15/08/2026
Notts CountyLeicester
11
D
08/08/2026
BurnleyNotts County
4131
L
01/08/2026
WalsallNotts County
00
D
18/07/2026
Notts CountyNottingham Forest
02
L
14/07/2026
Randers FCNotts County
31
L

Referee Profile

B. Speedie · 158 matches analysed

3.5Avg Yellows
3.6Avg Cards
23.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 6% of referees analysed

League Table

League One 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday641113:6+713DWWWL
2HuddersfieldHuddersfield633010:4+612DDWWD
3BradfordBradford64026:4+212WWLLW
4Cambridge UnitedCambridge United632111:9+211WDWLD
5Oxford UnitedOxford United531112:6+610WWLWD
6PlymouthPlymouth631210:8+210WWLWD
7AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon63125:7-210WWLWD
8Stockport CountyStockport County630316:10+69LWLWL
9StevenageStevenage623111:7+49WWDDL
10BlackpoolBlackpool622211:9+28DLLWW
11Burton AlbionBurton Albion622210:1008LDWLW
12LutonLuton622212:13-18LDWLD
13LeicesterLeicester62228:10-28WLWDL
14ReadingReading521212:7+57LWWDL
15Leyton OrientLeyton Orient621312:9+37LDWLW
16Notts CountyNotts County61417:707LDDWD
17Mansfield TownMansfield Town62138:11-37DLLWL
18BarnsleyBarnsley62136:11-57LLWWD
19WycombeWycombe613210:14-46WDLLD
20Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons60518:10-25DDLDD
21PeterboroughPeterborough61234:10-65DLDLW
22BromleyBromley61236:17-115DLLLD
23WiganWigan61145:11-64DLWLL
24DoncasterDoncaster60336:9-33LLDDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday613:613
2HuddersfieldHuddersfield610:412
3BradfordBradford66:412
4Cambridge UnitedCambridge United611:911
5Oxford UnitedOxford United512:610
6PlymouthPlymouth610:810
7AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon65:710
8Stockport CountyStockport County616:109
9StevenageStevenage611:79
10BlackpoolBlackpool611:98
11Burton AlbionBurton Albion610:108
12LutonLuton612:138
13LeicesterLeicester68:108
14ReadingReading512:77
15Leyton OrientLeyton Orient612:97
16Notts CountyNotts County67:77
17Mansfield TownMansfield Town68:117
18BarnsleyBarnsley66:117
19WycombeWycombe610:146
20Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons68:105
21PeterboroughPeterborough64:105
22BromleyBromley66:175
23WiganWigan65:114
24DoncasterDoncaster66:93
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Luton vs Notts County Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this League One fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League One

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Key Factors for This Match

Luton and Notts County have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.