Burnley vs Notts County Prediction

Burnley
1-1
After Penalties
HT 0-1AET 0-0PEN 4-3
Notts County
Turf Moor, Burnley· Thomas Parsons, England 08/08/2026
BurnleyBurnley
1-1
After Penalties
Notts CountyNotts County

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSOLIDModel51%RiskMediumGap-1.0%
Burnley Rest
6 days
Notts County Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.44
X
22%4.34
2
26%6.61
Double Chance
1X
74%1.10
X2
48%2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.83
No
54%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.02 + 1.22 = 3.24
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
50%1.68
Over 3.5
31%2.67
Under 1.5
18%4.10
Under 2.5
50%2.10
Under 3.5
69%1.42
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

24'James GibbonsFoul
42'Callum RobertsAssist: Nick Tsaroulla
47'Zian FlemmingAssist: Marcus Edwards
66'Lee Ndlovu INEmile Acquah out
66'Oliver Cooper INConor Grant out
67'Oliver Sonne INConnor Roberts out
67'Aaron Ramsey INZeki Amdouni out
67'Ugo Raghouber INJosh Laurent out
73'Darius LipsiucFoul
80'Nick Tsaroulla INLuke Browne out
80'Callum Roberts INQamaruddin Kouhyar out
81'Marcus Edwards INMike Trésor out
90+2'Jack EvansFoul
90'Jacob Bruun Larsen INLluc Castell out

Lineups

Burnley
Coach: Nicky Hayen
Notts County
5-3-2

Burnley Starting XI

1Max WeissG
4Joe WorrallD
2Kyle WalkerD
6Bashir HumphreysD
22Oliver SonneM
28Hannibal MejbriM
8Ugo RaghouberM
7Jacob Bruun LarsenM
10Marcus EdwardsF
21Aaron RamseyF
19Zian FlemmingF

Notts County Starting XI

1James BelshawG
25Nick TsaroullaD
2James GibbonsD
12Lucas NessD
4Jacob BedeauD
14Darius LipsiucD
8Oliver CooperM
16Dean CampbellM
15Jack EvansM
39Lee NdlovuF
7Callum RobertsF

Burnley Substitutes

14Connor RobertsD
29Josh LaurentM
11Zeki AmdouniF
31Mike TrésorF
30Lluc CastellF
13Ben AmosG
23Lucas PiresD
18Hjalmar EkdalD
17Andreas HountondjiF

Notts County Substitutes

11Conor GrantM
33Emile AcquahF
23Luke BrowneD
17Qamaruddin KouhyarM
21Harry GriffithsG
44Matthew BakerD
49Kameron MuirM
30Ryley ReynoldsM
19Luka SmythF

Match Stats

BurnleyNotts County
74%Ball Possession26%
4Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box2
5Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots1
9Fouls15
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves3
659Total Passes231
586Passes Accurate168
89%Pass Accuracy73%

Team Comparison

BurnleyBurnley
Notts CountyNotts County
1590Elo Rating 1605
1.00Attack 1.04
0.84Defense 1.86
0%Hit Rate 17%
15.6Shots per Game 11.1
4.2Shots on Target 3.5
5.0Corners per Game 5.3
2.2Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy3.24 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BurnleyBurnley
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
Notts CountyNotts County
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

BurnleyBurnley
0W2D3L
02/08/2026
BurnleyTorino
01
L
29/07/2026
BurnleyEspanyol
22
D
26/07/2026
AjaxBurnley
21
L
16/07/2026
Real Salt LakeBurnley
41
L
12/07/2026
Columbus CrewBurnley
11
D
Notts CountyNotts County
1W1D3L
01/08/2026
WalsallNotts County
00
D
18/07/2026
Notts CountyNottingham Forest
02
L
14/07/2026
Randers FCNotts County
31
L
11/07/2026
ViborgNotts County
20
L
04/07/2026
Alfreton TownNotts County
05
W

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

Burnley vs Notts County Prediction

As a knockout-stage League Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

ScorePredicts covers League Cup across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Burnley and Notts County have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.