Burnley vs Notts County Prediction

Burnley
1-1
After Penalties
HT 0-1AET 0-0PEN 4-3
Notts County
Turf Moor, Burnley·Thomas Parsons, England 08/08/2026
BurnleyBurnley
1-1
After Penalties
Notts CountyNotts County

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-1.0%
Burnley Rest
6 days
Notts County Rest
7 days

Burnley vs Notts County: result, form and history

Burnley beat Notts County on penalties (4-3) after a 1-1 draw in the League Cup on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.44
X
22%4.34
2
26%6.61
Double Chance
1X
74%1.10
X2
48%2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.83
No
54%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.02 + 1.22 = 3.24
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
50%1.68
Over 3.5
31%2.67
Under 1.5
18%4.10
Under 2.5
50%2.10
Under 3.5
69%1.42
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

24'James GibbonsFoul
42'Callum RobertsAssist: Nick Tsaroulla
47'Zian FlemmingAssist: Marcus Edwards
66'Lee Ndlovu INEmile Acquah out
66'Oliver Cooper INConor Grant out
67'Oliver Sonne INConnor Roberts out
67'Aaron Ramsey INZeki Amdouni out
67'Ugo Raghouber INJosh Laurent out
73'Darius LipsiucFoul
80'Nick Tsaroulla INLuke Browne out
80'Callum Roberts INQamaruddin Kouhyar out
81'Marcus Edwards INMike Trésor out
90'Jacob Bruun Larsen INLluc Castell out
90+2'Jack EvansFoul

Lineups

Burnley
Coach: Nicky Hayen
Notts County
5-3-2

Burnley Starting XI

1Max Weiss6.2
4Joe Worrall7.0
2Kyle WalkerC6.9
6Bashir Humphreys7.2
22Oliver Sonne67'replaced by Connor Roberts6.9
28Hannibal Mejbri7.3
8Ugo Raghouber67'replaced by Josh Laurent6.9
7Jacob Bruun Larsen90'replaced by Lluc Castell6.9
10Marcus Edwards81'replaced by Mike Trésor7.3
21Aaron Ramsey67'replaced by Zeki Amdouni6.9
19Zian Flemming47'7.6
Avg rating6.85

Notts County Starting XI

1James Belshaw7.2
25Nick Tsaroulla80'replaced by Luke Browne6.7
2James Gibbons24'6.3
12Lucas Ness6.7
4Jacob BedeauC6.6
14Darius Lipsiuc73'5.9
8Oliver Cooper66'replaced by Conor Grant6.2
16Dean Campbell6.7
15Jack Evans90+2'6.5
39Lee Ndlovu66'replaced by Emile Acquah6.2
7Callum Roberts42'80'replaced by Qamaruddin Kouhyar7.3
Avg rating6.59

Burnley Substitutes

14Connor Roberts67'for Oliver Sonne6.6
29Josh Laurent67'for Ugo Raghouber6.3
11Zeki Amdouni67'for Aaron Ramsey6.5
31Mike Trésor81'for Marcus Edwards6.3
30Lluc Castell90'for Jacob Bruun Larsen
13Ben Amos
23Lucas Pires
18Hjalmar Ekdal
17Andreas Hountondji

Notts County Substitutes

11Conor Grant66'for Oliver Cooper6.5
33Emile Acquah66'for Lee Ndlovu6.6
23Luke Browne80'for Nick Tsaroulla6.7
17Qamaruddin Kouhyar80'for Callum Roberts6.7
21Harry Griffiths
44Matthew Baker
49Kameron Muir
30Ryley Reynolds
19Luka Smyth

Match Stats

BurnleyNotts County
74%Ball Possession26%
4Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box2
5Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots1
9Fouls15
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves3
659Total Passes231
586Passes Accurate168
89%Pass Accuracy73%

Team Comparison

BurnleyBurnley
Notts CountyNotts County
1582Elo Rating 1604
1.69Attack 1.70
0.93Defense 1.89
17%Hit Rate 39%
12.8Shots per Game 12.8
4.4Shots on Target 4.1
4.3Corners per Game 5.2
1.7Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

âš½High Goal Expectancy3.24 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

BurnleyBurnley
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Notts CountyNotts County
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

BurnleyBurnley
0W4D6L
02/08/2026
BurnleyTorino
01
L
29/07/2026
BurnleyEspanyol
22
D
26/07/2026
AjaxBurnley
21
L
16/07/2026
Real Salt LakeBurnley
41
L
12/07/2026
Columbus CrewBurnley
11
D
11/07/2026
FC CincinnatiBurnley
31
L
24/05/2026
BurnleyWolves
11
D
18/05/2026
ArsenalBurnley
10
L
10/05/2026
BurnleyAston Villa
22
D
01/05/2026
LeedsBurnley
31
L
Notts CountyNotts County
4W3D3L
01/08/2026
WalsallNotts County
00
D
18/07/2026
Notts CountyNottingham Forest
02
L
14/07/2026
Randers FCNotts County
31
L
11/07/2026
ViborgNotts County
20
L
04/07/2026
Alfreton TownNotts County
05
W
25/05/2026
Notts CountySalford City
30
W
15/05/2026
Notts CountyChesterfield
00
D
10/05/2026
ChesterfieldNotts County
01
W
02/05/2026
Notts CountyBristol Rovers
11
D
25/04/2026
ColchesterNotts County
01
W

Referee Profile

Thomas Parsons146 matches

4.39Cards per match
4.24Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
23.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Thomas Parsons4.39
Other referees3.98

4.39 cards a match, 0.41 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.98).

Cards come from 112 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Burnley vs Notts County forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Burnley have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Notts County have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Burnley and Notts County have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.