Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction

Mariehamn
0-4
Finished
HT 0-1
HJK Helsinki
Wiklof Holding Arena, Mariehamn· Amir Hajizadeh, Finland 23/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.66
SignalSTRONGModel70%RiskMediumGap+8.5%
Mariehamn Rest
5 days
HJK Helsinki Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
19%7.47
X
14%5.00
2
67%1.33
Double Chance
1X
33%3.10
X2
81%1.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.71
No
49%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.94 + 1.96 = 2.90
Over 1.5
80%1.13
Over 2.5
58%1.47
Over 3.5
35%2.18
Under 1.5
20%5.10
Under 2.5
42%2.52
Under 3.5
65%1.66
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

31'T. PukkiAssist: M. Borchers
46'N. Nurmi INT. Koivisto out
55'L. PearceUnsportsmanlike conduct
64'M. BorchersAssist: T. Pukki
66'A. Ring INL. Lappalainen out
66'L. LappalainenAssist: L. Montano
70'L. Pearce INN. Dosis out
70'A. Larsson INW. Nunez out
74'T. Cissokho INE. Levealahti out
74'J. Kallinen INL. Palmula out
74'T. Pukki INA. Cicale out
80'M. Borchers INM. Kirilov out
81'L. MontanoFoul
84'S. Dahlstrom INL. Andersson out
84'A. Huttunen INA. Soiniemi out
86'L. LappalainenAssist: A. Cicale
90+2'J. NissinenFoul

Lineups

Mariehamn
4-4-1-1Coach: Jimmy Wargh
HJK Helsinki
4-2-3-1Coach: Joonas Rantanen
Kevin Lund1K. LundKevin Lund
Jiri Nissinen28J. NissinenJiri Nissinen
Yeboah Amankwah38Y. AmankwahYeboah Amankwah
Noah Nurmi2N. NurmiNoah Nurmi
Samson Ngulube31S. NgulubeSamson Ngulube
Marlo Hyvonen64M. HyvonenMarlo Hyvonen
Sebastian Dahlström10S. DahlströmSebastian Dahlström
Emmanuel Patut20E. PatutEmmanuel Patut
Anttoni Huttunen16A. HuttunenAnttoni Huttunen
Luke Pearce11L. PearceLuke Pearce
Adam Larsson7A. LarssonAdam Larsson
Jesse Öst1J. ÖstJesse Öst
Miska Ylitolva28M. YlitolvaMiska Ylitolva
Ville Tikkanen6V. TikkanenVille Tikkanen
Till Cissokho3T. CissokhoTill Cissokho
Leonel Montano14L. MontanoLeonel Montano
Lucas Lingman10L. LingmanLucas Lingman
Jere Kallinen15J. KallinenJere Kallinen
Liam Möller22L. MöllerLiam Möller
Alexander Ring4A. RingAlexander Ring
Mads Borchers9M. BorchersMads Borchers
Teemu Pukki20T. PukkiTeemu Pukki

Mariehamn Substitutes

5Tuomas KoivistoD
9Wille NuñezF
6Nikolaos DosisM
3Aaro SoiniemiD
43Leo AnderssonF
32Matias RiikonenG
4Pontus LindgrenD
18Adam StroudM
21Arvid LundbergF

HJK Helsinki Substitutes

26Lassi LappalainenM
24Emil LevealahtiD
7Alfie CicaleM
62Leevi PalmulaM
17Martin KirilovM
44Matej MarkovićG
31Mihailo BogićevićD
2Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
18Toivo MeroM

Team Comparison

MariehamnMariehamn
HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki
1486Elo Rating 1699
1.83Attack 1.07
2.21Defense 1.99
77%Hit Rate 39%
11.1Shots per Game 13.5
3.5Shots on Target 2.9
4.7Corners per Game 3.5
2.0Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals

Game State Tendencies

MariehamnMariehamn
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Mariehamn 23%Draw 0%77% HJK Helsinki
3.53Avg Goals
34%BTTS Rate
50%Over 2.5

Recent Form

MariehamnMariehamn
0W0D5L
18/06/2026
AC OuluMariehamn
21
L
13/06/2026
MariehamnGnistan
03
L
30/05/2026
HJK HelsinkiMariehamn
10
L
26/05/2026
MariehamnLahti
01
L
23/05/2026
FF JaroMariehamn
30
L
HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki
4W1D0L
17/06/2026
HJK HelsinkiInter Turku
33
D
13/06/2026
FF JaroHJK Helsinki
25
W
09/06/2026
HonkaHJK Helsinki
17
W
30/05/2026
HJK HelsinkiMariehamn
10
W
26/05/2026
HJK HelsinkiMyPa
111
W

Referee Profile

Amir Hajizadeh, Finland · 3 matches analysed

3.6Avg Yellows
3.8Avg Cards
22.5Avg Fouls
Stricter than 9% of referees analysed

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1KuPSKuPS22127338:23+1543LLWDW
2Inter TurkuInter Turku22119229:16+1342WDWDW
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki22114736:27+937WLWWL
4GnistanGnistan22106636:29+736DWWDL
5AC OuluAC Oulu22104825:25034DWLLW
6VPSVPS2296729:22+733LWLWL
7LahtiLahti2295826:19+732WWLDW
8Turku PSTurku PS2287728:23+531DDWDW
9IlvesIlves22741134:37-325LLLWL
10SJKSJK22471125:33-819DLLDW
11FF JaroFF Jaro22361318:44-2615LLLLL
12MariehamnMariehamn22351417:43-2614WWWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1KuPSKuPS2238:2343
2Inter TurkuInter Turku2229:1642
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki2236:2737
4GnistanGnistan2236:2936
5AC OuluAC Oulu2225:2534
6VPSVPS2229:2233
7LahtiLahti2226:1932
8Turku PSTurku PS2228:2331
9IlvesIlves2234:3725
10SJKSJK2225:3319
11FF JaroFF Jaro2218:4415
12MariehamnMariehamn2217:4314
PromotionRelegation

Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Veikkausliiga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Veikkausliiga

ScorePredicts covers Finland football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Mariehamn have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.53 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.