New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction

Yankee Stadium, Bronx· R. Touchan 01/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
63%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.66
SignalSOLIDModel59%RiskMediumGap+2.5%
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Over 3.5
1.48
SignalHIGHModel56%RiskMediumGap+12.8%
New York City FC Rest
6 days
Toronto FC Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%1.66
X
21%4.00
2
16%4.75
Double Chance
1X
84%1.17
X2
37%2.19
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.67
No
46%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 0.92 = 2.70
Over 1.5
81%1.20
Over 2.5
59%1.70
Over 3.5
35%2.70
Under 1.5
19%4.33
Under 2.5
41%2.16
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.1 = 9.4
Over 8.5
57%1.51
Over 9.5
46%1.81
Over 10.5
29%2.27
Under 8.5
43%2.38
Under 9.5
54%1.90
Under 10.5
71%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 3 = 5.2
Over 3.5
74%1.48
Over 4.5
57%2.00
Under 3.5
26%2.37
Under 4.5
43%1.73

Match Events

6'R. Laryea
8'N. Mercau(Penalty)
11'Talles Magno
18'N. Mercau
45+6'J. Osorio
45+6'D. Mihailovic
56'N. Dorsch
59'B. Traore INM. Jones out
59'A. Ojeda INH. Wolf out
61'J. Gilman
71'N. Dorsch INA. Coello out
71'J. Sargent IND. Kerr out
72'D. Mihailovic IND. Etienne out
72'Talles Magno INM. Carrizo out
86'N. Mercau INS. Reid out
86'Thiago Martins INM. Ilenic out
87'T. Corbeanu INM. Henry out

Lineups

New York City FC
4-1-4-1Coach: Pascal Jansen
Toronto FC
4-2-3-1Coach: Robin Fraser
Matthew Freese49M. FreeseMatthew Freese
Tayvon Gray24T. GrayTayvon Gray
Thiago Martins13T. MartinsThiago Martins
James Sands6J. SandsJames Sands
Nico Cavallo2N. CavalloNico Cavallo
Jonathan Shore32J. ShoreJonathan Shore
Agustin Ojeda26A. OjedaAgustin Ojeda
Nicolás Fernández7N. FernándezNicolás Fernández
Andrés Perea8A. PereaAndrés Perea
Bénie Traoré9B. TraoréBénie Traoré
Talles Magno11T. MagnoTalles Magno
Luka Gavran1L. GavranLuka Gavran
Kobe Franklin19K. FranklinKobe Franklin
Walker Zimmerman25W. ZimmermanWalker Zimmerman
Jackson Gilman38J. GilmanJackson Gilman
Richie Laryea22R. LaryeaRichie Laryea
Jonathan Osorio21J. OsorioJonathan Osorio
Niklas Dorsch6N. DorschNiklas Dorsch
Theo Corbeanu7T. CorbeanuTheo Corbeanu
Đorđe Mihailović10Đ. MihailovićĐorđe Mihailović
Dániel Sallói20D. SallóiDániel Sallói
Josh Sargent9J. SargentJosh Sargent

New York City FC Substitutes

30Tomás RomeroG
23Max MurrayD
35Mitja IleničD
29Máximo CarrizoM
27Cooper FlaxM
15Kevin PierreM
17Hannes WolfF
88Malachi JonesF
99Seymour Garfield-ReidF

Toronto FC Substitutes

23William YarbroughG
13Benjamin KuscevicD
44Raheem EdwardsD
78Malik HenryM
14Alonso CoelloM
17Emilio AristizábalF
11Derrick EtienneF
99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF
29Deandre KerrF

Match Stats

New York City FCToronto FC
49%Ball Possession51%
3Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards4
16Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal5
13Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots3
11Fouls12
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves4
363Total Passes370
301Passes Accurate292
83%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

New York City FCNew York City FC
Toronto FCToronto FC
1592Elo Rating 1546
0.79Attack 1.68
2.20Defense 0.88
23%Hit Rate 37%
10.8Shots per Game 14.9
3.4Shots on Target 5.7
5.0Corners per Game 4.1
1.8Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

New York City FCNew York City FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

New York City FC 100%Draw 0%0% Toronto FC
3.2Avg Goals
63%BTTS Rate
77%Over 2.5

Recent Form

New York City FCNew York City FC
2W1D2L
26/07/2026
New York City FCChicago Fire
31
W
23/07/2026
Columbus CrewNew York City FC
12
W
24/05/2026
Nashville SCNew York City FC
21
L
21/05/2026
Columbus CrewNew York City FC
10
L
17/05/2026
New York Red BullsNew York City FC
11
D
Toronto FCToronto FC
0W2D3L

Referee Profile

R. Touchan · 70 matches analysed

5.1Avg Yellows
5.3Avg Cards
25.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 90% of referees analysed

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC26176353:21+3257WDLDW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution26144845:33+1246WWWLW
3Inter MiamiInter Miami25129461:46+1545DDDWL
4CharlotteCharlotte26127747:37+1043WDWDW
5Chicago FireChicago Fire25116845:38+739LLDDD
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union261061050:42+836WWWWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC261041246:60-1434LWWWD
8New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls26961134:48-1433WWLDL
9FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati2589854:61-733DDLLD
10New York City FCNew York City FC26881039:34+532LWLDD
11DC UnitedDC United25611831:39-829LDWDL
12Toronto FCToronto FC26611939:49-1029LLWDD
13Columbus CrewColumbus Crew26751437:42-526WLLWL
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC26751430:43-1326WDLDL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal26561531:53-2221LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC2653:2157
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution2645:3346
3Inter MiamiInter Miami2561:4645
4CharlotteCharlotte2647:3743
5Chicago FireChicago Fire2545:3839
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union2650:4236
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC2646:6034
8New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls2634:4833
9FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati2554:6133
10New York City FCNew York City FC2639:3432
11DC UnitedDC United2531:3929
12Toronto FCToronto FC2639:4929
13Columbus CrewColumbus Crew2637:4226
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC2630:4326
15CF MontrealCF Montreal2631:5321
Promotion

New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Major League Soccer fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Major League Soccer

ScorePredicts covers USA football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

New York City FC and Toronto FC have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.2 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.