Paredes vs Maria da Fonte Prediction

Paredes
5-1
Finished
HT 3-1
Maria da Fonte
20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.8 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.17
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap-13.1%
Paredes Rest
6 days
Maria da Fonte Rest
7 days

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte: result, form and history

Paredes beat Maria da Fonte 5-1 in the Taça de Portugal on 20 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Paredes had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Maria da Fonte.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
74%1.17
X
16%5.45
2
10%14.63
Double Chance
1X
90%1.02
X2
26%3.95
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

5'
9'
37'
44'
64'
74'

Team Comparison

ParedesParedes
Maria da FonteMaria da Fonte
1628Elo Rating 1436
2.85Attack 0.59
2.09Defense 0.42
83%Hit Rate 0%

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+192 Elo

Game State Tendencies

ParedesParedes
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (2 vs 0.8 in second half)
Maria da FonteMaria da Fonte
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Recent Form

ParedesParedes
7W1D2L
13/09/2026
ParedesFafe
21
W
05/09/2026
VarzimParedes
01
W
30/08/2026
ErmesindeParedes
13
W
23/08/2026
ParedesLeça
12
L
15/08/2026
Pacos FerreiraParedes
01
W
07/08/2026
ParedesGuimaraes B
31
W
01/08/2026
ParedesLusitânia Lourosa
42
W
22/07/2026
AVSParedes
24
W
18/07/2026
Santa ClaraParedes
20
L
03/05/2026
ParedesAD Marco 09
22
D
Maria da FonteMaria da Fonte
4W0D6L
13/09/2026
Maria da FonteSC Braga B
04
L
06/09/2026
BritoMaria da Fonte
21
L
30/08/2026
Maria da FonteUniao Nogueirense
10
W
23/08/2026
Maria da FonteCeloricense
01
L
16/08/2026
VinhaisMaria da Fonte
01
W
31/07/2026
FafeMaria da Fonte
20
L
31/08/2025
Maria da FonteBrito
12
L
20/10/2024
Maria da FonteArouca
05
L
21/09/2024
LajenseMaria da Fonte
01
W
08/09/2024
Maria da FonteCardielense
21
W

Bracket

Round of 256
Round of 128
Round of 64
Beira-Mar3
União Lamas3
Oliveirense4
Penalva Castelo0
Varzim5
Trofense1
Fátima3
Benfica Castelo Branco1
Atlético Malveira20
Mafra31
Olímpico do Montijo0
Atlético CP4
FC Serpa2
O Grandolense0
Pacos Ferreira0
Fafe1
Machico20
Camacha20
Awarded
Portalegrense0
Santo Antonio3
Montalegre00
Ponte da Barca10
Oliveira Hospital1
Sourense0
Rebordelo0
Bragança4
Rebordosa21
Alpendorada31
Régua0
AD Marco 091
Salgueiros2
Sousense1
Sanjoanense3
Pacos de Brandao0
Vianense8
Minas de Argozelo0
UD da Serra5
Uniao de Pombal0
União Montemor1
Juventude Évora4
1º Dezembro0
Real1
Sacavenense5
Angrense0
AD Nogueirense10
Naval 189332
Académico do Fundão0
Guarda6
Ferreiras0
Aljustrelense3
Messejanense0
Portel8
Nazarenos0
Vitória de Sernache3
Florgrade0
São João Ver0
Lusitano Évora 19111
CF Os Belenenses2
Mação5
Gavionenses0
AD Fornos Algodres0
Os Marialvas4
Merelinense2
Atlético Arcos0
Alcains1
Sertanense0
Caldas1
Sintrense3
Castrense0
Louletano1
Celoricense1
Pevidem0
CF Benfica3
Viana Alentejo0
Cinfães1
Espinho0
Correlhã1
Os Limianos4
SC Covilha00
Mortágua10
Ermesinde1
Paredes3
Fazendense1
Mocarriense0
Maria da Fonte1
Uniao Nogueirense0
SC Barreiro2
Madalena5
O Elvas9
São Roque (Açores)0
Alcochetense8
Fayal0
GIL Vicente
Seeded
Vitória SC
Seeded
Nacional
Seeded
Estrela
Seeded
Moreirense
Seeded
Rio Ave
Seeded
Academico Viseu
Seeded
Casa Pia
Seeded
Santa Clara
Seeded
Alverca
Seeded
Estoril
Seeded
Maritimo
Seeded
Famalicao
Seeded
Arouca
Seeded
Academica
Seeded
Imortal Albufeira
Seeded
Tondela
Seeded
Castro Daire
Seeded
Portimonense
Seeded
Felgueiras 1932
Seeded
Lagoa
Seeded
Feirense
Seeded
Penafiel
Seeded
Recreativa de Lamelas
Seeded
União de Leiria
Seeded
Tirsense
Seeded
Lajense
Seeded
Farense
Seeded
Estrela Calheta
Seeded
Leixoes
Seeded
Ginásio Figueirense
Seeded
Ovarense
Seeded
Olhanense
Seeded
União Santarém
Seeded
AVS
Seeded
Amora
Seeded
Vinhais
Seeded
Amarante
Seeded
Vila Pouca
Seeded
Brito
Seeded
Ançã
Seeded
Leça
Seeded
Chaves
Seeded
Lusitânia Lourosa
Seeded
Vitoria Setubal
Seeded
Bombarralense
Seeded
Vizela
Seeded
Real1
Academica4
Imortal Albufeira1
Tondela5
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Naval 18930
Felgueiras 19322
Vitória de Sernache2
Varzim1
Atlético CP4
Lagoa1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Oliveirense1
Penafiel2
Recreativa de Lamelas4
Santo Antonio1
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Mafra14
Tirsense13
On penalties
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2
Sacavenense0
Farense1
Estrela Calheta1
Vianense3
Alpendorada3
Mação0
Fazendense6
Ginásio Figueirense1
Alcochetense2
CF Benfica0
Ovarense0
Os Marialvas1
Olhanense01
Portel00
After extra time
União Santarém5
Merelinense0
Amora3
UD da Serra4
Fátima4
Vinhais1
Os Limianos3
Aljustrelense0
Vila Pouca0
Brito5
Ançã1
Sanjoanense4
Mortágua0
Leça2
Guarda2
Chaves3
Oliveira Hospital12
Juventude Évora11
After extra time
Madalena1
Lusitânia Lourosa3
Alcains0
Vitoria Setubal2
Bombarralense0
Vizela1
GIL Vicente
Seeded
Vitória SC
Seeded
Nacional
Seeded
Estrela
Seeded
Moreirense
Seeded
Rio Ave
Seeded
Academico Viseu
Seeded
Casa Pia
Seeded
Santa Clara
Seeded
Alverca
Seeded
Estoril
Seeded
Maritimo
Seeded
Famalicao
Seeded
Arouca
Seeded
Real1
Academica4
Imortal Albufeira1
Tondela5
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Naval 18930
Felgueiras 19322
Vitória de Sernache2
Varzim1
Atlético CP4
Lagoa1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Oliveirense1
Penafiel2
Recreativa de Lamelas4
Santo Antonio1
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Mafra14
Tirsense13
On penalties
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2
Sacavenense0
Farense1
Estrela Calheta1
Vianense3
Alpendorada3
Mação0
Fazendense6
Ginásio Figueirense1
Alcochetense2
CF Benfica0
Ovarense0
Os Marialvas1
Olhanense01
Portel00
After extra time
União Santarém5
Merelinense0
Amora3
UD da Serra4
Fátima4
Vinhais1
Os Limianos3
Aljustrelense0
Vila Pouca0
Brito5
Ançã1
Sanjoanense4
Mortágua0
Leça2
Guarda2
Chaves3
Oliveira Hospital12
Juventude Évora11
After extra time
Madalena1
Lusitânia Lourosa3
Alcains0
Vitoria Setubal2
Bombarralense0
Vizela1
GIL Vicente
Seeded
Vitória SC
Seeded
Nacional
Seeded
Estrela
Seeded
Moreirense
Seeded
Rio Ave
Seeded
Academico Viseu
Seeded
Casa Pia
Seeded
Santa Clara
Seeded
Alverca
Seeded
Estoril
Seeded
Maritimo
Seeded
Famalicao
Seeded
Arouca
Seeded

About the Paredes vs Maria da Fonte forecast

As a knockout tie in the Taça de Portugal, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

About Taça de Portugal

More Taça de Portugal fixtures and forecasts are on the Taça de Portugal Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paredes have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Paredes and Maria da Fonte have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.