Racing Montevideo vs Penarol Prediction
Uruguay · Clausura - 9
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.24
SignalSOLIDModel48%SurpriseHighGap-11.1%
Racing Montevideo Rest
8 days
Penarol Rest
3 days
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: the result in context
Penarol beat Racing Montevideo 1-0 in the Primera División on 4 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Penarol had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Racing Montevideo.
Their 7 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Esteban Ostojich averages 6.61 cards a game, 1.43 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
126%3.60
X29%2.94
245%2.09
Double Chance
1X56%1.65
X274%1.24
Both Teams to Score
Yes48%2.05
No52%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.12 + 1.48 = 2.60
Over 1.566%1.47
Over 2.542%2.40
Over 3.522%4.65
Under 1.534%2.58
Under 2.558%1.53
Under 3.578%1.16
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
23'Alex Vázquez
28'Jesús Trindade
29'Lucas Agustin Ferreira Zagas
29'Sebastian Da Silva
46'Martín Ferreira
53'nahuel herrera
63'Alex Vázquez INfranco suarez out
63'E. Da Silva INRodri Gadea out
69'nahuel herrera INMauricio Lemos out
69'Jesús Trindade INJonathan Rodriguez out
74'Germán Pezzella
77'ramiro brazionis INFacundo Gonzalez out
81'Eric Remedi
85'Facundo Gonzalez
88'Thiago Espinosa INLucas Hernández out
88'Cristian Jaime INFranco González out
89'Matías Arezo
90+2'Matías Arezo INTomás Olase Curutchet out
90+3'yuri oyarzo INJuan Guarino out
Lineups
Racing MontevideoPenarol
3-4-2-1Coach: D. Aguirre
12F. Varese
3R. Brazionis
4G. Cotugno
13A. Ceri
17R. Ferreira
5J. Bosca
34A. De la Cuesta Airoldi
37Y. Oyarzo
39Á. Vázquez
9E. da Silva10E. da Silva
29W. Aguerre
2G. Pezzella
6L. Ferreira
34N. Herrera
26T. Nahuel Espinosa Dovat
5E. Remedi
21J. Trindade
7J. Cabrera
11C. Jaime
32L. Umpiérrez
19M. ArezoRacing Montevideo Substitutes
20E. Bentancor
22Thiago Fernandez
30R. Gadea63'for E. Da Silva
29F. González77'for ramiro brazionis85'
8L. Loprete
1F. Machado
21N. Sosa
11F. Suárez63'for Alex Vázquez
27Matias Unyicio
Penarol Substitutes
33J. Rodríguez69'for Jesús Trindade
16T. Olase90+2'for Matías Arezo
27L. Hernández88'for Thiago Espinosa
3M. Lemos69'for nahuel herrera
80F. González88'for Cristian Jaime
8N. Fernández
1S. Britos
9F. Batista
36B. Barboza
28I. Alegre
Match Stats
Racing MontevideoPenarol 43%Ball Possession57%
4Corner Kicks3
4Yellow Cards5
5Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal8
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0
Team Comparison
Racing MontevideoPenarol1538Elo Rating 1661
1.64Attack 0.50
1.35Defense 2.44
23%Hit Rate 17%
9.6Shots per Game 9.8
3.8Shots on Target 2.8
5.2Corners per Game 4.2
2.5Cards per Game 3.8
AI Insights
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Racing Montevideo- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Penarol- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0.1 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings, all competitions
Racing Montevideo2Wins · 29%Draws228%
Penarol3Wins · 43%
3Wins · 43%2.1Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
29%3+ goals2 of 7
Previous meetings
12/07/2026Racing MontevideoPenarol11
30/03/2026PenarolRacing Montevideo12
20/01/2026PenarolRacing Montevideo10
09/03/2025PenarolRacing Montevideo02
16/06/2024PenarolRacing Montevideo11
15/03/2024Racing MontevideoPenarol12
09/05/2023Racing MontevideoPenarol02
Recent Form
Racing Montevideo4W2D4L
26/09/2026
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
Liverpool MontevideoRacing MontevideoRacing Montevideo
Central Espanol
DanubioRacing Montevideo
ProgresoRacing Montevideo21
L21/09/2026Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo00
D17/09/2026
JuventudRacing Montevideo
JuventudRacing Montevideo30
L12/09/2026Racing Montevideo
Boston River
09/09/2026Racing MontevideoBoston River32
WRacing MontevideoCentral Espanol24
L06/09/2026
CerroRacing Montevideo
CerroRacing Montevideo10
L04/09/2026
OrientalRacing Montevideo
OrientalRacing Montevideo12
W31/08/2026Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
23/08/2026Racing MontevideoAlbion FC10
WDanubioRacing Montevideo00
D15/08/2026Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
Racing MontevideoClub Nacional20
WPenarol5W4D1L
01/10/2026
Atletico TorquePenarol
26/09/2026Atletico TorquePenarol11
DPenarolBoston River21
W24/09/2026DanubioPenarol
DanubioPenarol11
D19/09/2026CerroPenarol
14/09/2026CerroPenarol12
WPenarolAlbion FC31
W05/09/2026DanubioPenarol
DanubioPenarol04
W03/09/2026
AtenasPenarol
30/08/2026AtenasPenarol22
DPenarolClub Nacional01
L27/08/2026PenarolAtletico Torque
PenarolAtletico Torque10
W22/08/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoPenarol
Deportivo MaldonadoPenarol00
DReferee Profile
6.61Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.61 cards a match, 1.43 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).
Cards come from 109 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 64 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 51:40 | +11 | 58 | LLWWL |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 54:39 | +15 | 57 | LDLLW |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:30 | +12 | 57 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 44:31 | +13 | 53 | WLDDL |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:43 | -2 | 50 | LLLWL |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 37:41 | -4 | 41 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 11 | Boston River | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 33:43 | -10 | 37 | LWWLW |
| 12 | Cerro | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 27:48 | -21 | 37 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Defensor Sporting | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 33:43 | -10 | 36 | DWLDD |
| 14 | Progreso | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 31:47 | -16 | 35 | WLLDD |
| 15 |  Cerro Largo | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 30:38 | -8 | 34 | DDWLW |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 28:43 | -15 | 32 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 34 | 51:27 | 64 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 33 | 51:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 33 | 54:39 | 57 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 42:30 | 57 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 33 | 44:31 | 53 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 34 | 41:43 | 50 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 37:41 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 11 | Boston River | 33 | 33:43 | 37 |
| 12 | Cerro | 33 | 27:48 | 37 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 34 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 14 | Progreso | 34 | 31:47 | 35 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 33 | 30:38 | 34 |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 28:43 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 117:61 | +56 | 143 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 70 | 42 | 14 | 14 | 127:73 | +54 | 137 | LLWWL |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 70 | 32 | 22 | 16 | 95:68 | +27 | 118 | WLDDL |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 29 | 23 | 19 | 81:68 | +13 | 110 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 70 | 30 | 16 | 24 | 108:90 | +18 | 106 | LDLLW |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 28 | 18 | 25 | 82:80 | +2 | 102 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 75:81 | -6 | 97 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 10 | Boston River | 70 | 24 | 20 | 26 | 83:82 | +1 | 92 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 70 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 71:79 | -8 | 83 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Cerro | 70 | 22 | 18 | 30 | 60:90 | -30 | 83 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 20 | 21 | 30 | 66:90 | -24 | 81 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 16 | 27 | 28 | 69:84 | -15 | 75 | DDDLD |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 20 | 14 | 37 | 69:107 | -38 | 74 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 117:61 | 143 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 70 | 127:73 | 137 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 70 | 95:68 | 118 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 81:68 | 110 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 70 | 108:90 | 106 |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 82:80 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 75:81 | 97 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 10 | Boston River | 70 | 83:82 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 70 | 71:79 | 83 |
| 12 | Cerro | 70 | 60:90 | 83 |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 66:90 | 81 |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 69:84 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 69:107 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | DDWLW |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | WLDDL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | DWLDD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | LWWLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | DWWWD |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | LDLLW |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | WLDDL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | LLLWL |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | DDDLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | DDWLW |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | LWWLW |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DWLLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | DWLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | +11 | 24 | WLDDL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | +6 | 23 | LLWWL |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | +9 | 22 | LDLLW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 21 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:8 | +8 | 21 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13:13 | 0 | 19 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 12:8 | +4 | 18 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Cerro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | -1 | 18 | DWLWL |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | +2 | 16 | DWWWD |
| 10 | Boston River | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:13 | +1 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 | WWDDW |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6:13 | -7 | 10 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14:23 | -9 | 9 | DWLDD |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 6 | DDWLW |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6:21 | -15 | 5 | LDWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 11 | 19:8 | 24 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 11 | 17:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 11 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 18:10 | 21 |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 16:8 | 21 |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro | 11 | 13:14 | 18 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 10 | Boston River | 11 | 14:13 | 15 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 13:18 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 6:13 | 10 |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 14:23 | 9 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 11 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 6:21 | 5 |
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This match
About the Racing Montevideo vs Penarol forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Racing Montevideo and Penarol in the Primera División table
In the Primera División table, Penarol are 1st and Racing Montevideo 5th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Racing Montevideo 42-30, Penarol 51-27. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.