Racing Montevideo vs Penarol Prediction
Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.50
SignalGOODModel28%SurpriseHighGap+6.6%
Racing Montevideo Rest
36 days
Penarol Rest
35 days
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: result, form and history
Racing Montevideo and Penarol drew 1-1 in the Primera División - Apertura on 12 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Referee E. Ostojich averages 6.62 cards a game, 1.42 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
135%3.05
X28%3.00
237%2.35
Double Chance
1X63%1.51
X265%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%2.10
No49%1.66
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 1.34 = 2.51
Over 1.568%1.50
Over 2.544%2.55
Over 3.523%5.13
Under 1.532%2.45
Under 2.556%1.47
Under 3.577%1.15
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
19'M. Olivera
25'N. Fernandez
31'A. Vazquez
37'L. Umpierrez
42'Jesus Trindade INC. Jaime out
46'M. Olivera INF. Romero out
58'E. Bentancor
59'R. Dudok
59'E. Bentancor IND. Cheuquepal out
59'R. Dudok INJ. Varela out
67'B. Barboza INL. Angulo out
67'E. Darias INF. Batista out
73'D. Cheuquepal
74'A. Hernandez(Penalty)
77'A. Hernandez ING. Togni out
79'T. Habib INI. Manzur out
87'J. Bosca INL. Loprete out
90+1'M. Ferreira
Lineups
Racing MontevideoPenarol
Coach: Diego AguirreRacing Montevideo Starting XI
12F. Varese
4G. Cotugno
13F. Alvarez
20E. Bentancor58'59'replaced by D. Cheuquepal
17M. Ferreira90+1'
10E. Da Silva
5J. Bosca87'replaced by L. Loprete
39A. Vazquez31'
19R. Dudok59'59'replaced by J. Varela
18T. Habib79'replaced by I. Manzur
9S. Da Silva
Penarol Starting XI
29W. Aguerre
36B. Barboza67'replaced by L. Angulo
3M. Lemos
6L. Ferreira
15M. Olivera19'46'replaced by F. Romero
21Jesus Trindade42'replaced by C. Jaime
8N. Fernandez25'
7J. Cabrera
13E. Darias67'replaced by F. Batista
32L. Umpierrez37'
99A. Hernandez74'77'replaced by G. Togni
Racing Montevideo Substitutes
1F. Machado
3Brazionis
15D. Cheuquepal59'for E. Bentancor73'
7J. Varela59'for R. Dudok
8L. Loprete87'for J. Bosca
11F. Suarez
22T. Fernandez
81I. Manzur79'for T. Habib
Penarol Substitutes
1S. Britos
4F. Romero46'for M. Olivera
27Lucas Hernandez
28I. Alegre
16T. Olase
18G. Barbas
23G. Togni77'for A. Hernandez
77L. Angulo67'for B. Barboza
9F. Batista67'for E. Darias
11C. Jaime42'for Jesus Trindade
Team Comparison
Racing MontevideoPenarol1550Elo Rating 1635
2.08Attack 0.41
1.57Defense 1.97
46%Hit Rate 0%
8.4Shots per Game 10.8
4.1Shots on Target 3.0
4.6Corners per Game 4.6
3.2Cards per Game 4.5
AI Insights
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Racing Montevideo- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.8 in first half)
Penarol- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 6 meetings, all competitions
Racing Montevideo2Wins · 33%Draws117%
Penarol3Wins · 50%
3Wins · 50%2.2Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6
Previous meetings
30/03/2026PenarolRacing Montevideo12
20/01/2026PenarolRacing Montevideo10
09/03/2025PenarolRacing Montevideo02
16/06/2024PenarolRacing Montevideo11
15/03/2024Racing MontevideoPenarol12
09/05/2023Racing MontevideoPenarol02
Recent Form
Racing Montevideo4W5D1L
06/06/2026
Central EspanolRacing Montevideo
Central EspanolRacing Montevideo11
D30/05/2026Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting00
D23/05/2026
Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo
Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo00
D17/05/2026Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Racing MontevideoCerro Largo10
W09/05/2026Central EspanolRacing Montevideo
Central EspanolRacing Montevideo20
L03/05/2026Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
Racing MontevideoAtletico Torque11
D26/04/2026Cerro LargoRacing Montevideo
Cerro LargoRacing Montevideo01
W18/04/2026Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting
Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting11
D12/04/2026
WanderersRacing Montevideo
WanderersRacing Montevideo12
W04/04/2026Racing Montevideo
Juventud
Racing MontevideoJuventud21
WPenarol4W3D3L
07/06/2026
CerroPenarol
CerroPenarol01
W02/06/2026PenarolCentral Espanol
PenarolCentral Espanol01
L28/05/2026Penarol
Santa Fe
PenarolSanta Fe01
L24/05/2026Defensor SportingPenarol
Defensor SportingPenarol02
W22/05/2026Penarol
Corinthians
PenarolCorinthians11
D16/05/2026PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo21
W12/05/2026Cerro LargoPenarol
Cerro LargoPenarol23
W08/05/2026
PlatensePenarol
PlatensePenarol11
D05/05/2026PenarolDefensor Sporting
PenarolDefensor Sporting11
D01/05/2026CorinthiansPenarol
CorinthiansPenarol20
LReferee Profile
6.62Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.62 cards a match, 1.42 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).
Cards come from 111 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 52:28 | +24 | 65 | LDLWL |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 59:41 | +18 | 63 | WDLDL |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 53:42 | +11 | 61 | LWLLW |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 45:31 | +14 | 60 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 47:31 | +16 | 59 | DLWLD |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 42:44 | -2 | 51 | WLLLW |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 37:43 | -6 | 41 | DDWLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 35:43 | -8 | 39 | WDWLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 33:41 | -8 | 37 | LLDDW |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 34:47 | -13 | 37 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 29:53 | -24 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | 10 | 5 | 20 | 31:49 | -18 | 35 | LWLLD |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 29:45 | -16 | 32 | WDDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 52:28 | 65 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 59:41 | 63 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 53:42 | 61 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 45:31 | 60 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 47:31 | 59 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 42:44 | 51 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 37:43 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 35:43 | 39 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | 33:41 | 37 |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 34:47 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 29:53 | 37 |
| 15 | Progreso | 35 | 31:49 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | 29:45 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 43 | 15 | 14 | 118:62 | +56 | 144 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 43 | 14 | 15 | 129:75 | +54 | 140 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 34 | 22 | 16 | 98:68 | +30 | 124 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 30 | 23 | 19 | 84:69 | +15 | 113 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 32 | 16 | 24 | 113:92 | +21 | 112 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 28 | 18 | 26 | 82:82 | 0 | 102 | DDWLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 77:81 | -4 | 100 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 24 | 20 | 28 | 84:86 | -2 | 92 | LWLWW |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 74:82 | -8 | 86 | LLDDW |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 22 | 18 | 32 | 62:95 | -33 | 83 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 20 | 22 | 30 | 67:91 | -24 | 82 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 16 | 27 | 29 | 70:86 | -16 | 75 | WDDDL |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 20 | 14 | 38 | 69:109 | -40 | 74 | LWLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 118:62 | 144 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 129:75 | 140 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 98:68 | 124 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 84:69 | 113 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 113:92 | 112 |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 82:82 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 77:81 | 100 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 84:86 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 74:82 | 86 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 62:95 | 83 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 67:91 | 82 |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 70:86 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 69:109 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | WDWLD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | LWLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | DLWLD |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | WDDDL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | LDDWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:8 | +14 | 30 | DLWLD |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 26:14 | +12 | 28 | WDLDL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | +6 | 26 | LWLLW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 22 | LDWWL |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17:9 | +8 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | +4 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13:15 | -2 | 19 | LWLLD |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12:10 | +2 | 18 | DDWLL |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 18 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14:19 | -5 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15:17 | -2 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 13 | WWWDD |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 12 | WDWLD |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7:15 | -8 | 10 | WDDDL |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10:17 | -7 | 9 | LLDDW |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8:22 | -14 | 8 | WLDWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 22:8 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 26:14 | 28 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 19:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 18:10 | 22 |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 17:9 | 22 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 13:15 | 19 |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 14:19 | 16 |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 15:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 16:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 10:17 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 8:22 | 8 |
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About the Racing Montevideo vs Penarol forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Racing Montevideo and Penarol in the Primera División - Apertura table
In the Primera División - Apertura table, Penarol are 1st and Racing Montevideo 5th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Racing Montevideo 45-31, Penarol 52-28. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.