Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction

Rayo Vallecano
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Alaves
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes·José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain 20/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+12.0%
Rayo Vallecano Rest
4 days
Alaves Rest
5 days

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: result, form and history

Rayo Vallecano and Alaves drew 1-1 in the La Liga on 20 Aug 2026. Alaves had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 1 for Rayo Vallecano.

Rayo Vallecano have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 9 previous meetings, which averaged 1.7 goals a game. Rayo Vallecano tend to win more corners, 7.1 a game to 3.3 for Alaves.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.31
X
29%3.06
2
27%3.38
Double Chance
1X
73%1.31
X2
56%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.99
No
43%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.04 = 2.63
Over 1.5
73%1.46
Over 2.5
51%2.41
Over 3.5
19%4.50
Under 1.5
27%2.73
Under 2.5
49%1.57
Under 3.5
81%1.18
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.2 = 9.2
Over 8.5
60%1.44
Over 9.5
46%1.80
Over 10.5
33%2.25
Under 8.5
40%2.59
Under 9.5
54%1.98
Under 10.5
67%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
65%1.31
Over 4.5
47%1.62
Under 3.5
35%3.20
Under 4.5
53%2.20

Match Events

17'I. Palazon INR. Nteka out
36'Goal cancelledPelayo Fernández
45+2'Nahuel TenagliaFoul
48'S. CamelloAssist: J. de Frutos
55'F. Perez INA. Garcia out
55'P. Fernandez INO. Valentin out
60'A. Batalla IND. Cardenas out
62'M. Rodriguez IND. Suarez out
62'L. Boye INM. Diaz out
70'Jonny Otto INYusi out
73'Sergio CamelloFoul
80'V. Koski INN. Valentini out
80'A. Perez INC. Alena out
84'M. Diaz
90+2'Nicolás ValentiniFoul

Lineups

Rayo Vallecano
4-1-4-1Coach: Benat San Jose
Alaves
5-3-2Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores
Avg rating6.67
Avg rating6.85
A. Batalla7.213A. Batalla
A. Ratiu6.32A. Ratiu
F. Lejeune6.924F. Lejeune
P. Fernandez6.222P. Fernandez
J. Vertrouwd6.233J. Vertrouwd
P. Ciss6.36P. Ciss
J. de Frutos6.919J. de Frutos
I. PalazonC6.37I. Palazon
U. Lopez7.28U. Lopez
F. Perez6.321F. Perez
S. Camello7.310S. Camello
A. Sivera6.91A. Sivera
A. Perez6.97A. Perez
N. Tenaglia6.614N. Tenaglia
V. Koski6.316V. Koski
Jonny Otto6.917J. Otto
A. Rebbach6.521A. Rebbach
P. Ibanez7.719P. Ibanez
A. BlancoC6.98A. Blanco
M. Rodriguez18M. Rodriguez
L. Boye6.715L. Boye
T. Martinez6.011T. Martinez

Rayo Vallecano Substitutes

1D. Cardenas60'for A. Batalla6.9
20I. Balliu
26M. de las Sias
27S. Lozano
18A. Garcia55'for F. Perez6.2
4P. Diaz
23O. Valentin55'for P. Fernandez7.0
11R. Nteka17'for I. Palazon6.9
34I. Alonso Martin
9Alemao
14G. Tsitaishvili

Alaves Substitutes

13A. Rodriguez
2N. Valentini80'for V. Koski90+2'6.7
3Yusi70'for Jonny Otto7.0
12H. Novoa Ramos
4D. Suarez62'for M. Rodriguez7.3
10C. Alena80'for A. Perez6.7
23C. Protesoni
6A. Guevara
20A. Manas
9M. Diaz62'for L. Boye84'7.6
22M. Rodriguez62'replaced by D. Suarez
27X. Olaiz

Match Stats

Rayo VallecanoAlaves
48%Ball Possession52%
9Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots15
3Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal9
5Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots3
14Fouls13
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
324Total Passes345
256Passes Accurate278
79%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
AlavesAlaves
1750Elo Rating 1734
0.91Attack 0.69
1.54Defense 1.74
14%Hit Rate 0%
22.0Shots per Game 13.4
4.4Shots on Target 4.1
7.1Corners per Game 3.3
2.8Cards per Game 1.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
AlavesAlaves
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano6Wins · 67%
Draws00%
AlavesAlaves3Wins · 33%
1.7Avg Goals
11%Both teams scored1 of 9
11%3+ goals1 of 9

Previous meetings

La Liga23/05/2026
AlavesRayo Vallecano
12
Copa del Rey14/01/2026
AlavesRayo Vallecano
20
La Liga26/10/2025
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
10
La Liga29/03/2025
AlavesRayo Vallecano
02
La Liga26/10/2024
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
10
La Liga10/03/2024
AlavesRayo Vallecano
10
La Liga15/09/2023
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
20
La Liga16/04/2022
AlavesRayo Vallecano
10
La Liga18/12/2021
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
20

Recent Form

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
3W2D5L
15/08/2026
SevillaRayo Vallecano
21
L
08/08/2026
IpswichRayo Vallecano
30
L
01/08/2026
CharleroiRayo Vallecano
23
W
26/07/2026
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano
21
L
17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
21
L
27/05/2026
Crystal PalaceRayo Vallecano
10
L
23/05/2026
AlavesRayo Vallecano
12
W
17/05/2026
Rayo VallecanoVillarreal
20
W
14/05/2026
ValenciaRayo Vallecano
11
D
11/05/2026
Rayo VallecanoGirona
11
D
AlavesAlaves
6W2D2L
15/08/2026
AlavesGetafe
30
W
07/08/2026
Racing SantanderAlaves
6171
W
31/07/2026
AlavesCastellón
30
W
25/07/2026
GironaAlaves
01
W
18/07/2026
AlavesEibar
11
D
23/05/2026
AlavesRayo Vallecano
12
L
17/05/2026
OviedoAlaves
01
W
13/05/2026
AlavesBarcelona
10
W
09/05/2026
ElcheAlaves
11
D
02/05/2026
AlavesAthletic Club
24
L

Referee Profile

José Luis Munuera Montero180 matches

4.56Cards per match
4.34Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
25.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

José Luis Munuera Montero4.56
Other referees4.88

4.56 cards a match, 0.32 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.88).

Cards come from 147 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona11100146:12+3430WLWWW
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1191122:8+1428WWWWW
3Real MadridReal Madrid1190228:10+1827WWWWL
4Real BetisReal Betis1172218:15+323WDLWD
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1061319:18+119WWWWL
6SevillaSevilla1152417:19-217LWLDL
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club933312:9+312LDDDD
8VillarrealVillarreal1133515:15012LWDLW
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo1126310:10012LDWDW
10AlavesAlaves1133515:17-212LDLLD
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1033415:20-512LDDDW
12GetafeGetafe113358:16-812WLDLW
13Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1025313:13011LDLDL
14EspanyolEspanyol1132613:14-111WLLDL
15OsasunaOsasuna1032510:20-1011LWLDL
16Racing SantanderRacing Santander1132615:29-1411LWLDL
17ElcheElche1124514:18-410LWDDW
18LevanteLevante1124516:21-510LLWDD
19ValenciaValencia112368:17-99WLDDL
20MalagaMalaga110568:21-135LDLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1146:1230
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1122:828
3Real MadridReal Madrid1128:1027
4Real BetisReal Betis1118:1523
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1019:1819
6SevillaSevilla1117:1917
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club912:912
8VillarrealVillarreal1115:1512
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo1110:1012
10AlavesAlaves1115:1712
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1015:2012
12GetafeGetafe118:1612
13Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1013:1311
14EspanyolEspanyol1113:1411
15OsasunaOsasuna1010:2011
16Racing SantanderRacing Santander1115:2911
17ElcheElche1114:1810
18LevanteLevante1116:2110
19ValenciaValencia118:179
20MalagaMalaga118:215
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Rayo Vallecano and Alaves in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Rayo Vallecano (11th) and Alaves (10th) are level on 12 points. League goal record so far: Rayo Vallecano 15-20, Alaves 15-17. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.