Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction

Rayo Vallecano
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Alaves
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes· José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain 20/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel44%RiskMediumGap+12.0%
Rayo Vallecano Rest
4 days
Alaves Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.31
X
29%3.06
2
27%3.38
Double Chance
1X
73%1.31
X2
56%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.99
No
43%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.04 = 2.63
Over 1.5
73%1.46
Over 2.5
51%2.41
Over 3.5
19%4.50
Under 1.5
27%2.73
Under 2.5
49%1.57
Under 3.5
81%1.18
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.2 = 9.2
Over 8.5
60%1.44
Over 9.5
46%1.80
Over 10.5
33%2.25
Under 8.5
40%2.59
Under 9.5
54%1.98
Under 10.5
67%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
65%1.31
Over 4.5
47%1.62
Under 3.5
35%3.20
Under 4.5
53%2.20

Match Events

17'I. Palazon INR. Nteka out
36'Goal cancelledPelayo Fernández
45+2'Nahuel TenagliaFoul
48'S. CamelloAssist: J. de Frutos
55'F. Perez INA. Garcia out
55'P. Fernandez INO. Valentin out
60'A. Batalla IND. Cardenas out
62'M. Rodriguez IND. Suarez out
62'L. Boye INM. Diaz out
70'Jonny Otto INYusi out
73'Sergio CamelloFoul
80'V. Koski INN. Valentini out
80'A. Perez INC. Alena out
84'M. Diaz
90+2'Nicolás ValentiniFoul

Lineups

Rayo Vallecano
4-1-4-1Coach: Benat San Jose
Alaves
5-3-2Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores
A. Batalla13A. BatallaA. Batalla
A. Ratiu2A. RatiuA. Ratiu
F. Lejeune24F. LejeuneF. Lejeune
P. Fernandez22P. FernandezP. Fernandez
J. Vertrouwd33J. VertrouwdJ. Vertrouwd
P. Ciss6P. CissP. Ciss
J. de Frutos19J. de FrutosJ. de Frutos
I. Palazon7I. PalazonI. Palazon
U. Lopez8U. LopezU. Lopez
F. Perez21F. PerezF. Perez
S. Camello10S. CamelloS. Camello
A. Sivera1A. SiveraA. Sivera
A. Perez7A. PerezA. Perez
N. Tenaglia14N. TenagliaN. Tenaglia
V. Koski16V. KoskiV. Koski
Jonny Otto17J. OttoJonny Otto
A. Rebbach21A. RebbachA. Rebbach
P. Ibanez19P. IbanezP. Ibanez
A. Blanco8A. BlancoA. Blanco
M. Rodriguez18M. RodriguezM. Rodriguez
L. Boye15L. BoyeL. Boye
T. Martinez11T. MartinezT. Martinez

Rayo Vallecano Substitutes

1D. CardenasG
20I. BalliuD
26M. de las SiasD
27S. Lozano
18A. GarciaM
4P. DiazM
23O. ValentinM
11R. NtekaM
34I. Alonso MartinD
9AlemaoF
14G. TsitaishviliF

Alaves Substitutes

13A. RodriguezG
2N. ValentiniD
3YusiD
12H. Novoa RamosF
4D. SuarezM
10C. AlenaM
23C. ProtesoniM
6A. GuevaraM
20A. Manas
9M. DiazF
22M. RodriguezF
27X. OlaizD

Match Stats

Rayo VallecanoAlaves
48%Ball Possession52%
9Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots15
3Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal9
5Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots3
14Fouls13
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
324Total Passes345
256Passes Accurate278
79%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
AlavesAlaves
1794Elo Rating 1805
1.63Attack 2.41
0.65Defense 1.98
27%Hit Rate 66%
10.3Shots per Game 13.9
4.8Shots on Target 5.8
5.8Corners per Game 5.7
3.3Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend27% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AlavesAlaves
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Rayo Vallecano 77%Draw 0%23% Alaves
1.93Avg Goals
27%BTTS Rate
27%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
1W0D4L
15/08/2026
SevillaRayo Vallecano
21
L
08/08/2026
IpswichRayo Vallecano
30
L
01/08/2026
CharleroiRayo Vallecano
23
W
26/07/2026
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano
21
L
17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
21
L
AlavesAlaves
4W1D0L
15/08/2026
AlavesGetafe
30
W
07/08/2026
Racing SantanderAlaves
6171
W
31/07/2026
AlavesCastellón
30
W
25/07/2026
GironaAlaves
01
W
18/07/2026
AlavesEibar
11
D

Referee Profile

José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain · 41 matches analysed

4.4Avg Yellows
4.6Avg Cards
25.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 73% of referees analysed

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona550021:4+1715WWWWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid540114:4+1012WLWWW
3Real BetisReal Betis54017:6+112WWLWW
4AlavesAlaves531111:5+610LWWDW
5Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid531110:6+410WLWDW
6SevillaSevilla53118:6+210WDLWW
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna52309:6+39DWWDD
8EspanyolEspanyol52128:5+37WDLLW
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club52127:6+17DWWLL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander52129:907WLWLD
11OsasunaOsasuna52125:8-37LLWWD
12Real SociedadReal Sociedad62136:11-57LWDWL
13LevanteLevante51227:9-25LDWDL
14GetafeGetafe51223:6-35DDLWL
15Celta VigoCelta Vigo60423:6-34DDDLL
16Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano51138:14-64LWLDL
17MalagaMalaga50322:8-63DDLDL
18VillarrealVillarreal50237:10-32LLLDD
19ElcheElche50236:13-72DLLLD
20ValenciaValencia50141:10-91LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona521:415
2Real MadridReal Madrid514:412
3Real BetisReal Betis57:612
4AlavesAlaves511:510
5Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid510:610
6SevillaSevilla58:610
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna59:69
8EspanyolEspanyol58:57
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club57:67
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander59:97
11OsasunaOsasuna55:87
12Real SociedadReal Sociedad66:117
13LevanteLevante57:95
14GetafeGetafe53:65
15Celta VigoCelta Vigo63:64
16Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano58:144
17MalagaMalaga52:83
18VillarrealVillarreal57:102
19ElcheElche56:132
20ValenciaValencia51:101
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this La Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Alaves have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Rayo Vallecano and Alaves have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.93 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.