Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction

Toluca
4-0
Finished
HT 2-0
FC Juarez
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca· Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras, Mexico 31/08/2026
TolucaToluca
4-0
Finished
FC JuarezFC Juarez

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.41
SignalGOODModel66%RiskMediumGap-1.3%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 9.5
1.70
SignalHIGHModel63%RiskMediumGap+9.7%
Toluca Rest
3 days
FC Juarez Rest
8 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.28
X
20%5.90
2
14%8.75
Double Chance
1X
86%1.05
X2
34%3.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.74
No
39%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.65 + 0.91 = 3.56
Over 1.5
92%1.11
Over 2.5
70%1.41
Over 3.5
48%2.05
Under 1.5
8%6.00
Under 2.5
30%2.81
Under 3.5
52%1.75
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 3.7 = 10.5
Over 8.5
71%1.42
Over 9.5
65%1.70
Over 10.5
47%2.10
Under 8.5
29%2.66
Under 9.5
35%2.06
Under 10.5
53%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 3.2 = 5.1
Over 3.5
69%1.32
Over 4.5
55%1.67
Under 3.5
31%2.98
Under 4.5
45%2.10

Match Events

10'HelinhoAssist: E. del Villar
17'Goal Disallowed - FoulO. Virgen
34'J. MurilloOG
35'HelinhoFoul
46'A. Vega INN. Castro out
46'F. Pereira INJ. Gallardo out
58'F. J. Nevarez PulgarinUnsportsmanlike conduct
65'F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin INA. Mayorga out
65'Monchu INGuilherme Castilho out
70'Helinho INF. Vinas out
70'F. Romero INF. Arce out
73'O. Virgen
74'G. Sepulveda INMadson out
79'F. VinasAssist: O. Virgen
81'J. Rodriguez INJ. Sigala out
81'O. Estupinan INRicardinho out
81'O. Virgen INA. Briseno out

Lineups

Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
FC Juarez
4-2-3-1Coach: Salvador Valero
Hugo Gonzalez1H. GonzalezHugo Gonzalez
Sebastian Aceves184S. AcevesSebastian Aceves
Luan13LuanLuan
Federico Pereira6F. PereiraFederico Pereira
Everardo López25E. LópezEverardo López
Franco Romero5F. RomeroFranco Romero
Oswaldo Virgen23O. VirgenOswaldo Virgen
Helinho11HelinhoHelinho
Víctor Guzmán7V. GuzmánVíctor Guzmán
Alexis Vega9A. VegaAlexis Vega
Jorge Díaz29J. DíazJorge Díaz
Sebastián Jurado1S. JuradoSebastián Jurado
Francisco Nevarez33F. NevarezFrancisco Nevarez
Jesús Murillo3J. MurilloJesús Murillo
Gilberto Sepúlveda2G. SepúlvedaGilberto Sepúlveda
Javier Aquino20J. AquinoJavier Aquino
Rodrigo Dourado13R. DouradoRodrigo Dourado
Monchu6MonchuMonchu
Denzell Garcia5D. GarciaDenzell Garcia
Jairo Torres10J. TorresJairo Torres
José Luis Rodríguez11J. Luis RodríguezJosé Luis Rodríguez
Óscar Estupiñán19Ó. EstupiñánÓscar Estupiñán

Toluca Substitutes

12Ronaldo DimasG
4Bruno MéndezD
20Jesús GallardoD
3Antonio BriseñoD
24Fernando Arce JuárezM
192Luis NavarreteD
15Pavel PérezM
8Nicolás CastroM
16Federico ViñasF
198Jose EstradaM

FC Juarez Substitutes

24Benny DíazG
14Eder LopezM
4Alejandro MayorgaD
23Haret OrtegaD
9Madson de Souza SilvaF
16Juan SigalaM
201Jan CarmonaM
21RicardinhoM
7Raymundo FulgencioM
8Guilherme CastilhoM

Match Stats

TolucaFC Juarez
65%Ball Possession35%
5Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
26Total Shots6
10Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal2
20Shots Inside Box3
6Shots Outside Box3
10Blocked Shots2
11Fouls8
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves7
665Total Passes360
596Passes Accurate284
90%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

TolucaToluca
FC JuarezFC Juarez
1813Elo Rating 1512
2.70Attack 0.91
2.54Defense 1.21
100%Hit Rate 27%
11.1Shots per Game 11.8
4.6Shots on Target 3.7
4.5Corners per Game 3.4
1.6Cards per Game 3.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+301 Elo
High Goal Expectancy3.56 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

TolucaToluca
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC JuarezFC Juarez
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Toluca 77%Draw 23%0% FC Juarez
2.56Avg Goals
46%BTTS Rate
61%Over 2.5

Recent Form

TolucaToluca
3W1D1L
27/08/2026
TolucaAustin
20
W
22/08/2026
Club QueretaroToluca
12
W
16/08/2026
Atlante FCToluca
00
D
13/08/2026
TolucaFC Dallas
31
W
09/08/2026
TolucaLos Angeles FC
01
L
FC JuarezFC Juarez
2W0D3L
22/08/2026
FC JuarezClub America
12
L
16/08/2026
MonterreyFC Juarez
61
L
12/08/2026
Real Salt LakeFC Juarez
30
L
08/08/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsFC Juarez
13
W
05/08/2026
Minnesota United FCFC Juarez
12
W

Referee Profile

Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras, Mexico · 9 matches analysed

5.4Avg Yellows
5.9Avg Cards
25.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 95% of referees analysed

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Toluca have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Toluca and FC Juarez have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.56 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.