Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC Prediction

Al-Gharafa
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Esteghlal FC
Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Al Rayyan·Alexander King 12/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.55
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+4.7%
Al-Gharafa Rest
4 days
Esteghlal FC Rest
4 days

Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC: the result in context

Esteghlal FC beat Al-Gharafa 2-1 in the AFC Champions League Elite on 12 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.80
X
27%3.50
2
36%2.30
Double Chance
1X
64%1.55
X2
63%1.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.56
No
45%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.79 + 1.21 = 3.00
Over 1.5
75%1.21
Over 2.5
54%1.73
Over 3.5
33%2.67
Under 1.5
25%3.98
Under 2.5
46%2.08
Under 3.5
67%1.39
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

32'Amirmohammad Razaghinia INJasir Asani out
37'Jasir AsaniAssist: Saleh Hardani
44'Jaloliddin MasharipovTime wasting
45'Dame Traore INHassan Aladin out
45+4'Roozbeh CheshmiFoul
48'Ferjani SassiAssist: Seydou Sano
53'Jaloliddin Masharipov INAlireza Koushki out
60'Hossein Goudarzi
64'Frank Magri INAmro Surag out
67'Jasir Asani INMohammadhossein Eslami out
75'Seydou Sano INFlorinel Coman out
75'Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi INMason Holgate out
80'Yacine Brahimi INAmjed Nasar Mohamed out
82'Esmaeil GholizadehFoul

Lineups

Al-Gharafa
3-4-3Coach: Pedro Martins
Esteghlal FC
3-4-3Coach: Sohrab Bakhtiarizadeh
Avg rating6.45
Avg rating6.89
A. Kone5.931A. Kone
S. Sano7.34S. Sano
Ayoub Al Oui6.118A. Al Oui
Dame Traoré6.46D. Traoré
Abdulrahman Faiz Al Rashidi5.82A. Faiz Al Rashidi
F. Sassi7.513F. Sassi
F. Díaz6.029F. Díaz
Saifeldeen Hassan Fadlalla6.623S. Hassan Fadlalla
A. Ounas6.896A. Ounas
F. Magri6.29F. Magri
Y. Brahimi6.58Y. Brahimi
H. Far Abbasi7.776H. Far Abbasi
S. Fallah7.06S. Fallah
A. Aghasi6.933A. Aghasi
R. Ashurmatov7.05R. Ashurmatov
Saleh Hardani7.52S. Hardani
R. Cheshmi6.34R. Cheshmi
A. Razzaghinia6.48A. Razzaghinia
H. Goudarzi8.127H. Goudarzi
J. Masharipov6.710J. Masharipov
S. Saharkhizan6.511S. Saharkhizan
E. Saitmuratov6.187E. Saitmuratov

Al-Gharafa Substitutes

90A. Hassan45'for Dame Traore6.5
7F. Coman75'for Seydou Sano6.7
5Mostafa Essam
16Jamil Friarkh
27M. Holgate75'for Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi6.1
24Hamad Kahiout
97A. Nasar Mohamed80'for Yacine Brahimi6.4
1Khalifa Ababacar
11Amro Abdelfatah Ali Surag64'for Frank Magri6.3
22Abdirashid Saeed Hassan
49R. Faragalla
45Mohammed Al Mulla

Esteghlal FC Substitutes

80M. Eslami67'replaced by Jasir Asani6.3
9M. Azadi
7J. Asani32'for Amirmohammad Razaghinia37'67'for Mohammadhossein Eslami7.6
88M. Ahmadi
20A. Koushki53'for Jaloliddin Masharipov6.4
15A. Zamani
60S. Hosseinifar
26Mohammad Mehdi Ghayedi Heydari
36Alireza Mohebali
40Mohammadali Nabizadeh Chamaz Koti
44Iliya Ebrahimi

Match Stats

Al-GharafaEsteghlal FC
45%Ball Possession55%
9Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots10
9Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal6
13Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots1
9Fouls14
1Goalkeeper Saves7
355Total Passes446
282Passes Accurate370
12Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa
Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC
1443Elo Rating 1684
1.63Attack 1.48
1.29Defense 2.37
14%Hit Rate 56%
15.6Shots per Game 10.0
5.1Shots on Target 3.0
6.5Corners per Game 5.0
2.0Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC1Wins · 100%
3.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

AFC Champions League Elite16/09/2024
Esteghlal FCAl-Gharafa
30

Recent Form

Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa
4W1D5L
08/10/2026
Al WakrahAl-Gharafa
32
L
01/10/2026
Al-GharafaAl Mesaimeer
42
W
15/09/2026
Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Gharafa
21
L
11/09/2026
Al-GharafaLusail City
00
D
05/09/2026
Al SaddAl-Gharafa
41
L
01/09/2026
Al SaddAl-Gharafa
21
L
27/08/2026
Al-GharafaAl Shamal
13
L
21/08/2026
Al-GharafaAl Shahaniya
21
W
09/05/2026
Al-GharafaAl Sadd
41
W
05/05/2026
Al WakrahAl-Gharafa
2030
W
Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC
6W4D0L
08/10/2026
Tractor SaziEsteghlal FC
11
D
14/09/2026
Esteghlal FCAl Sadd
30
W
10/09/2026
Esteghlal FCPaykan
10
W
06/09/2026
Aluminium ArakEsteghlal FC
00
D
02/09/2026
Esteghlal FCPersepolis FC
11
D
28/08/2026
Foolad FCEsteghlal FC
00
D
23/08/2026
Esteghlal FCSepahan FC
20
W
18/08/2026
Nassaji MazandaranEsteghlal FC
01
W
14/08/2026
Esteghlal FCMes Shahr-e Babak
40
W
27/02/2026
Esteghlal FCFajr Sepasi
21
W

League Table

AFC Champions League Elite 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Al AinAl Ain330010:2+89WWW
2Shabab Al Ahli DubaiShabab Al Ahli Dubai33005:1+49WWW
3Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah32106:3+37WWD
4Esteghlal FCEsteghlal FC32015:3+26LWW
5Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hilal Saudi FC32015:4+16LWW
6Al ShamalAl Shamal31204:2+25WDD
7Al-Qadisiyah FCAl-Qadisiyah FC31204:3+15DDW
8Al-Ittihad FCAl-Ittihad FC31114:404WLD
9Al-NassrAl-Nassr21013:5-23WL
10NeftchiNeftchi31023:5-23LLW
11Al Quwa Al JawiyaAl Quwa Al Jawiya31022:5-33WLL
12PakhtakorPakhtakor30212:3-12LDD
13Tractor SaziTractor Sazi30121:3-21LDL
14Al SaddAl Sadd30121:6-51DLL
15Al-GharafaAl-Gharafa30033:6-30LLL
16Al-Wasl FCAl-Wasl FC20022:5-30LL

About the Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC forecast

This is a AFC Champions League Elite cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC in the AFC Champions League Elite table

The table shows a wide gap: Esteghlal FC are 4th in the AFC Champions League Elite, while Al-Gharafa sit 15th, 6 points behind. League goal record so far: Al-Gharafa 3-6, Esteghlal FC 5-3. The full standings are on the AFC Champions League Elite Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Esteghlal FC have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC have met only 1 time recently, with 3.0 goals in that meeting. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.