Bolívar vs Gremio Prediction

Bolívar
3-2
Finished
HT 2-2
Gremio
Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz·Roberto Perez Gutierrez, Peru 24/07/2026
BolívarBolívar
3-2
Finished
GremioGremio

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.34
SignalSTRONGModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+6.4%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.71
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+14.3%
Bolívar Rest
5 days
Gremio Rest
5 days

Bolívar vs Gremio: the result in context

Bolívar beat Gremio 3-2 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 23 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Roberto Perez Gutierrez averages 4.83 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.58
X
29%4.00
2
22%5.06
Double Chance
1X
78%1.15
X2
52%2.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.80
No
56%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.44 + 1.18 = 2.62
Over 1.5
71%1.25
Over 2.5
40%1.80
Over 3.5
19%3.02
Under 1.5
29%3.75
Under 2.5
60%1.98
Under 3.5
81%1.34
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 2.8 = 8.3
Over 8.5
55%1.46
Over 9.5
44%1.80
Over 10.5
33%2.25
Under 8.5
45%2.42
Under 9.5
56%1.88
Under 10.5
67%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.5 = 4.3
Over 3.5
72%1.48
Over 4.5
42%2.00
Under 3.5
28%2.32
Under 4.5
58%1.68

Match Events

2'Martín CauteruccioAssist: Patricio Rodríguez
16'Mathias Villasanti
18'Robson Matheus
23'Tetê
54'Leonel PérezFoul
58'Dairon AsprillaAssist: Jesús Sagredo
60'Luis Guedes INGustavo Martins out
60'Tetê INMiguel Monsalve out
60'José Enamorado INGabriel Mec out
64'Jesús Sagredo INLuis Paz out
64'Ervin Vaca INLeonel Justiniano out
67'Mathias Villasanti INJuan Nardoni out
72'Gabriel MecFoul
81'Martín Cauteruccio INLucas Chávez out
81'Patricio Rodríguez INJhon Velásquez out
84'Robson Matheus INDorny Romero out
90'Martin Braithwaite INMatheus Nascimento out

Lineups

Bolívar
Coach: Soria Camacho Vladimir
Gremio
Coach: Luis Castro

Bolívar Starting XI

1Carlos Lampe6.2
2Jesús Sagredo64'replaced by Luis Paz6.7
5Santiago Echeverria6.5
3Xavier Arreaga6.2
4José SagredoC7.0
14Robson Matheus18'84'replaced by Dorny Romero7.2
6Ervin Vaca64'replaced by Leonel Justiniano6.0
80Carlos Melgar7.0
17Patricio Rodríguez81'replaced by Jhon Velásquez8.2
27Dairon Asprilla58'7.3
9Martín Cauteruccio2'81'replaced by Lucas Chávez7.3
Avg rating6.85

Gremio Starting XI

1Weverton8.3
7Cristian Pavón6.5
43Luis Guedes60'replaced by Gustavo Martins6.3
3Wagner Leonardo6.9
54Pedro Gabriel5.9
20Mathias VillasantiC16'67'replaced by Juan Nardoni7.0
33Leonel Pérez54'6.3
17Dodi7.2
21Tetê23'60'replaced by Miguel Monsalve7.9
22Martin Braithwaite90'replaced by Matheus Nascimento6.9
99José Enamorado60'replaced by Gabriel Mec6.7
Avg rating6.77

Bolívar Substitutes

8Luis Paz64'for Jesús Sagredo6.7
23Leonel Justiniano64'for Ervin Vaca7.2
18Lucas Chávez81'for Martín Cauteruccio6.5
7Jhon Velásquez81'for Patricio Rodríguez6.7
77Dorny Romero84'for Robson Matheus6.9
13Diego Méndez
16Leonardo Zabala
35Escleizon Freita
33Fernando Mena
26Erwin Saavedra
10Billy Arce
19John García

Gremio Substitutes

6Gustavo Martins60'for Luis Guedes6.5
11Miguel Monsalve60'for Tetê6.3
37Gabriel Mec60'for José Enamorado72'6.3
5Juan Nardoni67'for Mathias Villasanti6.6
30Matheus Nascimento90'for Martin Braithwaite
12Gabriel Grando
4Walter Kannemann
38Caio Paulista
14Marcos Rocha
10Willian
50Zortéa
65Riquelme Freitas

Match Stats

BolívarGremio
57%Ball Possession43%
6Corner Kicks6
0Yellow Cards2
29Total Shots13
8Shots on Goal5
14Shots off Goal8
14Shots Inside Box9
15Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots0
12Fouls4
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
400Total Passes312
368Passes Accurate253
92%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

BolívarBolívar
GremioGremio
1704Elo Rating 1653
1.27Attack 1.46
1.90Defense 1.91
63%Hit Rate 50%
19.1Shots per Game 16.9
5.5Shots on Target 5.1
6.3Corners per Game 7.0
4.1Cards per Game 2.7

Game State Tendencies

BolívarBolívar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
GremioGremio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

BolívarBolívar
4W3D3L
18/07/2026
BolívarGuabirá
40
W
28/05/2026
BolívarIndepend. Rivadavia
13
L
20/05/2026
FluminenseBolívar
21
L
16/05/2026
Universitario de VintoBolívar
32
L
14/05/2026
BolívarNacional Potosí
11
D
11/05/2026
BloomingBolívar
00
D
07/05/2026
Deportivo La GuairaBolívar
11
D
03/05/2026
Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívar
12
W
01/05/2026
BolívarFluminense
20
W
26/04/2026
BolívarReal Tomayapo
60
W
GremioGremio
4W2D4L
18/07/2026
MirassolGremio
21
L
12/07/2026
GremioCruzeiro
13
L
30/05/2026
GremioCorinthians
13
L
27/05/2026
GremioAtletico Torque
22
D
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
W
21/05/2026
GremioPalestino
20
W
17/05/2026
BahiaGremio
11
D
15/05/2026
ConfiançaGremio
03
W
11/05/2026
GremioFlamengo
01
L
06/05/2026
Deportivo RiestraGremio
03
W

Referee Profile

Roberto Perez Gutierrez138 matches

4.83Cards per match
4.40Yellow cards per match
0.42Red cards per match
25.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Roberto Perez Gutierrez4.83
Other referees5.49

4.83 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.49).

Cards come from 132 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque641111:5+613DWWLW
2GremioGremio63218:3+511DWWDW
3Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra61234:10-65DLLWL
4PalestinoPalestino60331:6-53DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque611:513
2GremioGremio68:311
3Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra64:105
4PalestinoPalestino61:63
Promotion

About the Bolívar vs Gremio forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Bolívar and Gremio have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.