Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction

Mirassol
2-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Gremio
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol·Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil 18/07/2026
MirassolMirassol
2-1
Finished
GremioGremio

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.25
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-2.0%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+12.7%
Mirassol Rest
48 days
Gremio Rest
5 days

Mirassol vs Gremio: result, form and history

Mirassol beat Gremio 2-1 in the Serie A on 18 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 3 previous meetings averaged 3.7 goals, and both sides scored in 2 of them. Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo averages 5.66 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%1.91
X
31%3.39
2
25%4.03
Double Chance
1X
75%1.22
X2
56%1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.90
No
46%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.07 = 2.34
Over 1.5
71%1.36
Over 2.5
44%2.12
Over 3.5
22%3.87
Under 1.5
29%3.10
Under 2.5
56%1.70
Under 3.5
78%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.3 = 9.2
Over 8.5
54%1.47
Over 9.5
41%1.83
Over 10.5
28%2.25
Under 8.5
46%2.40
Under 9.5
59%1.90
Under 10.5
72%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.7 = 5.4
Over 3.5
81%1.29
Over 4.5
59%1.54
Under 3.5
19%3.23
Under 4.5
41%2.22

Match Events

16'Bruno SantosAssist: Igor Formiga
38'DenilsonHolding
40'Edson CariocaAssist: Denilson
41'Walter KannemannHolding
46'M. Villasanti INL. Perez out
46'Gabriel Mec INM. Braithwaite out
46'F. Amuzu INWillian out
46'Caio Paulista INPedro Gabriel out
65'Gustavo MartinsRoughing
72'Edson Carioca INCarlos Eduardo out
75'Bruno Santos INAndre Luis out
76'Japa INShaylon out
77'Carlos ViniciusAssist: C. Pavon
79'L. Perez
80'J. Nardoni INRiquelme out
83'Denilson INChico Kim out
83'Alesson INFernandinho out
86'Tete INMarcos Rocha out

Lineups

Mirassol
4-3-3Coach: Guanaes Rafael
Gremio
4-3-3Coach: Luis Castro
Avg rating6.92
Avg rating6.68
Walter6.322Walter
Igor Formiga7.532I. Formiga
João VictorC6.634J. Victor
Gabriel Knesowitsch7.544G. Knesowitsch
Reinaldo8.36Reinaldo
Denilson7.28Denilson
José Aldo6.221J. Aldo
Japa7.35Japa
Edson Carioca7.695E. Carioca
Bruno Santos7.530B. Santos
Alesson6.577Alesson
Weverton6.21Weverton
Cristian Pavón6.67C. Pavón
Gustavo Martins8.06G. Martins
Walter KannemannC6.04W. Kannemann
Caio Paulista6.238C. Paulista
Juan Nardoni6.35J. Nardoni
Mathias Villasanti6.920M. Villasanti
Gabriel Mec6.337G. Mec
Tetê6.321Tetê
Carlos Vinícius7.595C. Vinícius
Francis Amuzu6.79F. Amuzu

Mirassol Substitutes

96Carlos Eduardo72'replaced by Edson Carioca6.3
9André Luis75'for Bruno Santos6.2
7Shaylon76'for Japa6.5
10Chico83'for Denilson6.7
17Fernandinho83'for Alesson6.5
1Georgemy
90Thomazella
2Lucas Oliveira
18Elias
12Victor Luis
20Daniel Borges
27Antonio Galeano

Gremio Substitutes

54Pedro Gabriel46'for Caio Paulista6.9
10Willian46'for F. Amuzu6.7
33Leonel Pérez46'for M. Villasanti79'6.9
22Martin Braithwaite46'for Gabriel Mec6.2
65Riquelme Freitas80'for J. Nardoni6.9
14Marcos Rocha86'for Tete6.9
12Gabriel Grando
43Luis Guedes
3Wagner Leonardo
17Dodi
19Erick Noriega
11Miguel Monsalve

Match Stats

MirassolGremio
45%Ball Possession55%
5Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box5
4Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
14Fouls9
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
340Total Passes445
273Passes Accurate371
80%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

MirassolMirassol
GremioGremio
1661Elo Rating 1668
1.07Attack 1.56
1.94Defense 1.63
44%Hit Rate 59%
13.2Shots per Game 12.3
3.3Shots on Target 4.3
4.3Corners per Game 5.9
2.2Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

MirassolMirassol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
GremioGremio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

MirassolMirassol3Wins · 100%
Draws00%
GremioGremio0Wins · 0%
3.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

Serie A13/09/2025
GremioMirassol
01
Serie A17/04/2025
MirassolGremio
41
Copa Do Brasil02/03/2022
MirassolGremio
32

Recent Form

MirassolMirassol
6W1D3L
30/05/2026
Atletico ParanaenseMirassol
10
L
27/05/2026
LanusMirassol
10
L
24/05/2026
MirassolFluminense
10
W
20/05/2026
Always ReadyMirassol
12
W
16/05/2026
Atletico-MGMirassol
31
L
14/05/2026
MirassolRB Bragantino
21
W
10/05/2026
MirassolChapecoense-sc
11
D
08/05/2026
MirassolLDU de Quito
20
W
04/05/2026
MirassolCorinthians
21
W
30/04/2026
MirassolAlways Ready
20
W
GremioGremio
4W3D3L
12/07/2026
GremioCruzeiro
13
L
30/05/2026
GremioCorinthians
13
L
27/05/2026
GremioAtletico Torque
22
D
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
W
21/05/2026
GremioPalestino
20
W
17/05/2026
BahiaGremio
11
D
15/05/2026
ConfiançaGremio
03
W
11/05/2026
GremioFlamengo
01
L
06/05/2026
Deportivo RiestraGremio
03
W
03/05/2026
Atletico ParanaenseGremio
00
D

Referee Profile

Bruno Arleu de Araujo244 matches

5.66Cards per match
5.44Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
28.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Bruno Arleu de Araujo5.66
Other referees5.16

5.66 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.16).

Cards come from 201 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Mirassol vs Gremio forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Mirassol and Gremio in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Mirassol are 14th and Gremio 18th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Mirassol 39-48, Gremio 38-47. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.