Bulgaria vs Luxembourg Prediction

Bulgaria
1-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Luxembourg
Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo), Gabrovo·Sander van der Eijk 26/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseHighGap-9.2%
Bulgaria Rest
112 days
Luxembourg Rest
111 days

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: result, form and history

Luxembourg beat Bulgaria 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 26 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Luxembourg had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Bulgaria.

Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
39%2.35
X
30%3.00
2
31%3.40
Double Chance
1X
69%1.30
X2
61%1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%2.10
No
57%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.85 + 1.14 = 1.99
Over 1.5
66%1.52
Over 2.5
39%2.62
Over 3.5
23%5.00
Under 1.5
34%2.50
Under 2.5
61%1.49
Under 3.5
77%1.16
Corners
Projected Corners: 4 + 4.6 = 8.5
Over 8.5
56%1.91
Over 9.5
48%2.47
Over 10.5
36%3.40
Under 8.5
44%1.83
Under 9.5
52%1.47
Under 10.5
64%1.24
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.1 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%-
Over 4.5
39%-
Under 3.5
41%-
Under 4.5
61%-

Match Events

18'Asen ChandarovAssist: Dimitar Velkovski
28'Lukas PetkovFoul
35'Emil TsenovFoul
37'Leandro Barreiro
45'Danel Sinani INTimothé Rupil out
45'Georgi Rusev INStanislav Ivanov out
45+2'J. de Sousa Moreira CruzFoul
56'Asen Chandarov INMartin Minchev out
65'Vincent Thill
68'Emil Tsenov INP. Panayotov out
68'Zdravko Dimitrov INMarin Plamenov·Petkov out
72'Vincent Thill INMathias Olesen out
82'Teodor·Valentinov Ivanov INStefan Velkov out
83'Dirk CarlsonFoul
83'Hamza Kadamani INSebastien Thill out
83'Aiman Dardari INjayson videira out
90+1'J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz INMiguel Fernandes Goncalves out

Lineups

Bulgaria
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Dimitrov
Luxembourg
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Strasser
Avg rating6.50
Avg rating6.61
D. Naumov6.71D. Naumov
I. Turitsov6.819I. Turitsov
K. Dimitrov6.15K. Dimitrov
T. Ivanov6.215T. Ivanov
D. Velkovski7.121D. Velkovski
E. Tsenov5.96E. Tsenov
I. Gruev6.94I. Gruev
G. Rusev6.711G. Rusev
A. Chandarov7.514A. Chandarov
Z. Dimitrov6.510Z. Dimitrov
L. Petkov5.820L. Petkov
A. Moris7.91A. Moris
L. Jans6.918L. Jans
E. Mahmutović6.73E. Mahmutović
D. Carlson6.413D. Carlson
F. Bohnert5.84F. Bohnert
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz6.16J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
L. Barreiro7.916L. Barreiro
V. Thill7.611V. Thill
D. Sinani6.210D. Sinani
Aiman Dardari5.97A. Dardari
H. Kadamani6.317H. Kadamani

Bulgaria Substitutes

12D. Mitov
23A. Bozhev
16M. Petkov68'for Zdravko Dimitrov6.5
18K. Balov
3A. Hristov
9S. Ivanov45'for Georgi Rusev6.3
8A. Kraev
17M. Minchev56'for Asen Chandarov6.8
22K. Stoyanov
2Y. Stoyanov
13S. Velkov82'for Teodor·Valentinov Ivanov6.3
7P. Panayotov68'for Emil Tsenov6.1

Luxembourg Substitutes

22M. Martins
19M. Olesen72'for Vincent Thill6.3
12T. Pereira Cardoso
20T. Rupil45'for Danel Sinani6.5
5V. Selimović
21S. Thill83'for Hamza Kadamani6.2
14E. Veiga
9Jayson Videira Pereira83'for Aiman Dardari6.5
2E. Džogović
23L. Fox
8M. Goncalves90+1'for J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
15Omar Natami

Match Stats

BulgariaLuxembourg
52%Ball Possession48%
5Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
10Total Shots15
7Shots on Goal7
3Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box11
4Shots Outside Box4
0Blocked Shots4
10Fouls17
3Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves6
414Total Passes424
342Passes Accurate351
17Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

BulgariaBulgaria
LuxembourgLuxembourg
1381Elo Rating 1368
0.99Attack 0.75
1.84Defense 1.48
41%Hit Rate 31%
11.2Shots per Game 12.0
4.0Shots on Target 4.5
3.3Corners per Game 3.5
2.8Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BulgariaBulgaria
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LuxembourgLuxembourg
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

BulgariaBulgaria2Wins · 50%
Draws250%
LuxembourgLuxembourg0Wins · 0%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League15/11/2024
LuxembourgBulgaria
01
UEFA Nations League12/10/2024
BulgariaLuxembourg
00
World Cup - Qualification Europe10/10/2017
LuxembourgBulgaria
11
World Cup - Qualification Europe06/09/2016
BulgariaLuxembourg
43

Recent Form

BulgariaBulgaria
1W1D8L
05/06/2026
MoldovaBulgaria
22
D
01/06/2026
BulgariaMontenegro
01
L
18/11/2025
BulgariaGeorgia
21
W
15/11/2025
TürkiyeBulgaria
20
L
14/10/2025
SpainBulgaria
40
L
11/10/2025
BulgariaTürkiye
16
L
07/09/2025
GeorgiaBulgaria
30
L
04/09/2025
BulgariaSpain
03
L
23/03/2025
Rep. Of IrelandBulgaria
21
L
20/03/2025
BulgariaRep. Of Ireland
12
L
LuxembourgLuxembourg
3W0D7L
06/06/2026
AlbaniaLuxembourg
01
W
03/06/2026
LuxembourgItaly
01
L
31/03/2026
LuxembourgMalta
30
W
26/03/2026
MaltaLuxembourg
02
W
17/11/2025
Northern IrelandLuxembourg
10
L
14/11/2025
LuxembourgGermany
02
L
13/10/2025
SlovakiaLuxembourg
20
L
10/10/2025
GermanyLuxembourg
40
L
07/09/2025
LuxembourgSlovakia
01
L
04/09/2025
LuxembourgNorthern Ireland
13
L

Referee Profile

Sander van der Eijk178 matches

3.54Cards per match
3.29Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
21.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Sander van der Eijk3.54
Other referees3.30

3.54 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.30).

Cards come from 171 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1IcelandIceland42207:1+68DWWD
2EstoniaEstonia41302:1+16DWDD
3BulgariaBulgaria41123:5-24WLDL
4LuxembourgLuxembourg41032:7-53LLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1IcelandIceland47:18
2EstoniaEstonia42:16
3BulgariaBulgaria43:54
4LuxembourgLuxembourg42:73
Promotion

About the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Bulgaria and Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Bulgaria are 3rd in the UEFA Nations League, 1 point ahead of Luxembourg in 4th. League goal record so far: Bulgaria 3-5, Luxembourg 2-7. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.