Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction

Cuiaba
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Vila Nova
Arena Pantanal·D. Serafim 14/06/2026
CuiabaCuiaba
1-0
Finished
Vila NovaVila Nova

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalHIGHModel46%SurpriseMediumGap-2.5%
Cuiaba Rest
4 days
Vila Nova Rest
5 days

Cuiaba vs Vila Nova: the result in context

Cuiaba beat Vila Nova 1-0 in the Serie B on 14 Jun 2026. That went against recent form: Vila Nova had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Cuiaba.

Cuiaba tend to win more corners, 8.6 a game to 6.1 for Vila Nova.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.25
X
27%2.84
2
22%3.70
Double Chance
1X
77%1.25
X2
49%1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%2.25
No
50%1.57
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.4 + 0.97 = 2.37
Over 1.5
71%1.59
Over 2.5
48%2.77
Over 3.5
25%5.60
Under 1.5
29%2.29
Under 2.5
52%1.40
Under 3.5
75%1.12
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.6 = 9.7
Over 8.5
63%1.63
Over 9.5
51%2.00
Over 10.5
39%2.61
Under 8.5
37%2.16
Under 9.5
49%1.73
Under 10.5
61%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.2 = 4.8
Over 3.5
73%-
Over 4.5
57%1.39
Under 3.5
27%-
Under 4.5
43%2.70

Match Events

46'Rodrigo Rodrigues INKauan Cristtyan out
46'Tiago Pagnussat INCaio Marcelo out
58'Vinicius Peixoto INMateus Santos out
58'Luiz Otavio INLuis Soares out
66'Janderson INEmerson Urso out
66'Andre Luis INDellatorre out
66'Dodo INHayner out
68'Pepe INVictor Barbara out
84'Raylan INMarcos Junior out
84'Ryan INBruno Xavier out
85'Joao VieiraFoul
90+2'Calebe Costa
90+8'Marcos JuniorUnsportsmanlike conduct

Team Comparison

CuiabaCuiaba
Vila NovaVila Nova
1583Elo Rating 1661
0.27Attack 1.72
1.87Defense 1.38
0%Hit Rate 17%
21.1Shots per Game 14.1
5.1Shots on Target 5.1
8.6Corners per Game 6.1
0.5Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CuiabaCuiaba
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.3 vs 0 in second half)
Vila NovaVila Nova
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

CuiabaCuiaba1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
Vila NovaVila Nova0Wins · 0%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

Serie B25/09/2025
Vila NovaCuiaba
22
Serie B27/05/2025
CuiabaVila Nova
10

Recent Form

CuiabaCuiaba
3W5D2L
10/06/2026
Ponte PretaCuiaba
12
W
01/06/2026
CuiabaCRB
20
W
23/05/2026
Nautico RecifeCuiaba
10
L
17/05/2026
CuiabaNovorizontino
00
D
09/05/2026
Athletic ClubCuiaba
00
D
02/05/2026
CuiabaCriciuma
11
D
23/04/2026
CuiabaBotafogo SP
11
D
19/04/2026
GoiasCuiaba
02
W
12/04/2026
Operario-PRCuiaba
00
D
04/04/2026
CuiabaCeara
02
L
Vila NovaVila Nova
7W2D1L
09/06/2026
Vila NovaBotafogo SP
10
W
31/05/2026
LondrinaVila Nova
01
W
24/05/2026
America MineiroVila Nova
12
W
17/05/2026
Vila NovaAvai
20
W
09/05/2026
GoiasVila Nova
10
L
05/05/2026
Vila NovaAthletic Club
11
D
26/04/2026
CearaVila Nova
33
D
18/04/2026
Vila NovaOperario-PR
21
W
11/04/2026
Ponte PretaVila Nova
01
W
05/04/2026
Vila NovaAtletico Goianiense
21
W

Referee Profile

D. Serafim115 matches

5.44Cards per match
5.17Yellow cards per match
0.28Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

D. Serafim5.44
Other referees5.26

5.44 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).

Cards come from 72 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino361910764:31+3367WWDWW
2JuventudeJuventude361811747:25+2265DWDDW
3Vila NovaVila Nova36189952:38+1463DLDWD
4CriciumaCriciuma361881038:30+862WLWWL
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC361614643:31+1262DDWDW
6CRBCRB361671354:51+355LWLDW
7GoiasGoias361671338:41-355WWDWW
8Sport RecifeSport Recife361413948:39+955DWLDW
9Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense361413942:33+955DLDDL
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3614101251:40+1152WWLDL
11Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
12Operario-PROperario-PR361491346:48-251LWLLL
13CuiabaCuiaba3611141133:30+347LLLLD
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3611141142:41+147WLDDL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3612101440:46-646WLDLL
16CearaCeara3611101538:46-843LLDLW
17AvaiAvai361071933:46-1337LLDWW
18LondrinaLondrina37882145:58-1332LLLWD
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro36752426:55-2926WWWLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta36362721:78-5715LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3664:3167
2JuventudeJuventude3647:2565
3Vila NovaVila Nova3652:3863
4CriciumaCriciuma3638:3062
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3643:3162
6CRBCRB3654:5155
7GoiasGoias3638:4155
8Sport RecifeSport Recife3648:3955
9Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3642:3355
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3651:4052
11Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
12Operario-PROperario-PR3646:4851
13CuiabaCuiaba3633:3047
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3642:4147
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3640:4646
16CearaCeara3638:4643
17AvaiAvai3633:4637
18LondrinaLondrina3745:5832
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3626:5526
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3621:7815
PromotionRelegation

About the Cuiaba vs Vila Nova forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cuiaba and Vila Nova in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Vila Nova are 3rd and Cuiaba 13th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Cuiaba 33-30, Vila Nova 52-38. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Cuiaba and Vila Nova have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.