Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Prediction

Derry City
1-2
Finished
HT 0-0
CSKA Sofia
Brandywell Stadium, Derry·Jasmin Sabotic, Luxembourg 16/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.41
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+5.7%
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.41
SignalSTRONGModel38%SurpriseHighGap+12.7%
Derry City Rest
6 days
CSKA Sofia Rest
6 days

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia: the result in context

CSKA Sofia beat Derry City 2-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 16 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: CSKA Sofia had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Derry City.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%3.63
X
19%3.76
2
44%1.85
Double Chance
1X
56%1.86
X2
63%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%1.59
No
53%2.19
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.33 + 1.12 = 2.45
Over 1.5
71%1.20
Over 2.5
46%1.67
Over 3.5
23%2.63
Under 1.5
29%4.00
Under 2.5
54%2.10
Under 3.5
77%1.41
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

46'K. Santos INN. Twisk out
46'A. MartinoTripping
47'E. ChapmanAssist: B. Fleming
58'L. Godoy INJ. Zwarts out
58'P. Panayotov INJ. Eto'o out
64'T. IvanovFoul
66'I. Solet INJ. Gbamin out
66'E. Chapman INJ. Clarke out
67'C. GroganRoughing
75'I. PittasAssist: D. Evtimov
77'C. Grogan INJ. Stott out
77'J. Olayinka INC. Dummigan out
82'F. RodriguezFoul
90+13'S. SensiTripping
90+16'I. Pittas INM. Brahimi out
90+18'B. CotterOG

Lineups

Derry City
4-3-3Coach: Tiernan Lynch
CSKA Sofia
3-5-2Coach: Hristo Yanev
Brian Maher1B. Maher
Conor Barr22C. Barr
Christy Grogan25C. Grogan
Patrick McClean3P. McClean
Brandon Fleming19B. Fleming
Adam O'Reilly8A. O'Reilly
James Olayinka28J. Olayinka
Ellis Chapman14E. Chapman
Barry Cotter2B. Cotter
Michael Duffy7M. Duffy
Kévin Santos21K. Santos
Dimitar Evtimov25D. Evtimov
Teodor Ivanov14T. Ivanov
Petko Panayotov30P. Panayotov
Facundo Rodríguez32F. Rodríguez
Pastor2Pastor
Isaac Solet94I. Solet
Bruno Jordão6B. Jordão
Stefano Sensi8S. Sensi
Ángelo Martino17Á. Martino
Ioannis Pittas28I. Pittas
Leandro Godoy9L. Godoy

Derry City Substitutes

26Shea Callister
13Tom Norcott
4Jamie Stott77'for C. Grogan
6Robert Slevin
23Cameron Dummigan77'for J. Olayinka
15James Clarke66'for E. Chapman
16James McClean
17Nick Twisk46'for K. Santos
35Liam Kelly
32Terence Doherty

CSKA Sofia Substitutes

31Daniel Nikolov
91Aleks Tunchev
5Jean-Philippe Gbamin66'for I. Solet
19Andrey Yordanov
3Tamimou Ouorou
34Vasil Kaymakanov
11Mohamed Amine Brahimi90+16'for I. Pittas
38Léo Pereira
77Alejandro Piedrahita
80Georgi Chorbadzhiyski
99James Eto'o
10Joël Zwarts58'for L. Godoy

Match Stats

Derry CityCSKA Sofia
1Yellow Cards4

Team Comparison

Derry CityDerry City
CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia
1609Elo Rating 1707
1.47Attack 1.98
1.90Defense 1.93
56%Hit Rate 61%
16.7Shots per Game 16.3
5.3Shots on Target 6.6
4.6Corners per Game 5.1
2.3Cards per Game 4.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

Derry CityDerry City
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Derry CityDerry City0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1Wins · 100%
5.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Recent Form

Derry CityDerry City
2W4D4L
09/07/2026
CSKA SofiaDerry City
32
L
03/07/2026
Derry CityWaterford
24
L
26/06/2026
Derry CityDrogheda United
20
W
22/06/2026
Shamrock RoversDerry City
11
D
19/06/2026
Galway UnitedDerry City
21
L
12/06/2026
Derry CityBohemians
41
W
29/05/2026
DundalkDerry City
21
L
25/05/2026
Derry CityShelbourne
00
D
22/05/2026
Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.
00
D
15/05/2026
WaterfordDerry City
22
D
CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia
5W2D3L
09/07/2026
CSKA SofiaDerry City
32
W
03/07/2026
CSKA SofiaMarek
30
W
24/06/2026
CSKA SofiaPolessya
04
L
25/05/2026
LudogoretsCSKA Sofia
10
L
20/05/2026
Lokomotiv PlovdivCSKA Sofia
3141
W
16/05/2026
Levski SofiaCSKA Sofia
20
L
13/05/2026
CSKA SofiaCSKA 1948
11
D
08/05/2026
CSKA 1948CSKA Sofia
01
W
03/05/2026
CSKA SofiaLudogorets
10
W
29/04/2026
CSKA SofiaLudogorets
00
D

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
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St. Truiden
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Plzen
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OFI
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Aarhus
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Saburtalo
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Shamrock Rovers
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Egnatia Rrogozhinë
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Gornik Zabrze
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KuPS
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Universitatea Craiova
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Jagiellonia
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Rangers
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Lech Poznan
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KI Klaksvik
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Lincoln Red Imps FC
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Omonia Nicosia
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FC Thun
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Heart Of Midlothian
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Hradec Králové
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PAOK
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Maccabi Tel Aviv
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Hammarby FF
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Anderlecht
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FC ST. Gallen
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Benfica
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Twente
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Beşiktaş
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FC Midtjylland
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Pafos
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Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Larne
Seeded
Saburtalo
Seeded
Shamrock Rovers
Seeded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
KuPS
Seeded
Universitatea Craiova
Seeded
Jagiellonia
Seeded
Rangers
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
KI Klaksvik
Seeded
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Red Bull Salzburg
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Vikingur Reykjavik
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Kairat Almaty
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Trabzonspor
Seeded
Lillestrom
Seeded
Ararat-Armenia
Seeded
Kauno Žalgiris
Seeded
St. Truiden
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Plzen
Seeded
OFI
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Larne
Seeded
Saburtalo
Seeded
Shamrock Rovers
Seeded
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
KuPS
Seeded
Universitatea Craiova
Seeded
Jagiellonia
Seeded
Rangers
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
KI Klaksvik
Seeded
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Red Bull Salzburg
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Vikingur Reykjavik
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
Tromso
Seeded
Hradec Králové
Seeded
PAOK
Seeded
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Seeded
Hammarby FF
Seeded
Anderlecht
Seeded
FC ST. Gallen
Seeded
Benfica
Seeded
Twente
Seeded
Beşiktaş
Seeded
FC Midtjylland
Seeded
Pafos
Seeded

About the Derry City vs CSKA Sofia forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Europa League

More UEFA Europa League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Europa League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

CSKA Sofia have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Derry City and CSKA Sofia have met only 1 time recently, with 5.0 goals in that meeting. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.