Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom Prediction

Fredrikstad
0-2
Finished
HT 0-0
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad·Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway 11/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.38
SignalSTRONGModel39%SurpriseMediumGap+7.8%
Value Analysis
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.38
SignalSTRONGModel37%SurpriseMediumGap+14.7%
Fredrikstad Rest
7 days
Lillestrom Rest
15 days

Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom: the result in context

Lillestrom beat Fredrikstad 2-0 in the Eliteserien on 11 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Fredrikstad tend to win more corners, 5.8 a game to 2.6 for Lillestrom.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
39%2.90
X
28%3.35
2
33%2.32
Double Chance
1X
67%1.57
X2
61%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.60
No
49%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 1.11 = 2.54
Over 1.5
72%1.22
Over 2.5
42%1.76
Over 3.5
20%2.83
Under 1.5
28%3.78
Under 2.5
58%2.00
Under 3.5
80%1.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 5.6 = 10.5
Over 8.5
67%1.42
Over 9.5
55%1.68
Over 10.5
46%2.05
Under 8.5
33%2.72
Under 9.5
45%2.08
Under 10.5
54%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.4 = 3.3
Over 3.5
35%-
Over 4.5
16%-
Under 3.5
65%-
Under 4.5
84%-

Match Events

15'M. Karlsbakk
43'M. Nilsson
59'L. Alperud INFelix Va out
59'M. Karlsbakk INK. Krygard out
61'D. Eid
61'S. Rafn
62'G. NyheimAssist: S. Drammeh
68'S. Laghzaoui INL. Owusu out
73'T. OlsenAssist: Felix Va
75'B. Faraas INJ. Nunez out
84'M. Nilsson INJ. Nysveen out
84'O. Ohlenschlaeger INJ. Norbye out
84'F. Ghebreyohannes INA. Andresen out
90+1'T. Olsen INK. Arierhi out
90+5'S. Drammeh INS. Foss out
90+5'G. Nyheim INH. Woxen out

Team Comparison

FredrikstadFredrikstad
LillestromLillestrom
1620Elo Rating 1685
2.27Attack 1.70
0.42Defense 0.96
27%Hit Rate 66%
14.2Shots per Game 12.2
3.9Shots on Target 4.2
5.8Corners per Game 2.6
1.7Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FredrikstadFredrikstad
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
LillestromLillestrom
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

FredrikstadFredrikstad2Wins · 67%
Draws133%
LillestromLillestrom0Wins · 0%
2.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

NM Cupen21/05/2025
LillestromFredrikstad
3111
Eliteserien20/10/2024
FredrikstadLillestrom
21
Eliteserien20/05/2024
LillestromFredrikstad
03

Recent Form

FredrikstadFredrikstad
3W2D5L
04/07/2026
ValerengaFredrikstad
31
L
29/05/2026
FredrikstadStart
21
W
25/05/2026
SandefjordFredrikstad
11
D
16/05/2026
FredrikstadHam-Kam
21
W
09/05/2026
Sarpsborg 08 FFFredrikstad
21
L
02/05/2026
BrannFredrikstad
31
L
25/04/2026
FredrikstadViking
12
L
19/04/2026
Kristiansund BKFredrikstad
20
L
12/04/2026
FredrikstadValerenga
11
D
07/04/2026
AalesundFredrikstad
23
W
LillestromLillestrom
3W1D6L
26/06/2026
LillestromDegerfors IF
23
L
20/06/2026
FC MidtjyllandLillestrom
10
L
25/05/2026
Ham-KamLillestrom
20
L
20/05/2026
LillestromKristiansund BK
12
L
16/05/2026
LillestromSandefjord
31
W
10/05/2026
RosenborgLillestrom
20
L
03/05/2026
LillestromSarpsborg 08 FF
40
W
26/04/2026
LillestromBodo/Glimt
02
L
19/04/2026
ValerengaLillestrom
02
W
15/04/2026
TromsoLillestrom
00
D

Referee Profile

Sigurd Smehus Kringstad96 matches

3.65Cards per match
3.48Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Sigurd Smehus Kringstad3.65
Other referees3.38

3.65 cards a match, 0.27 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.38).

Cards come from 80 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eliteserien 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1VikingViking25192464:26+3859LWWWW
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt25192461:23+3859WLWWL
3MoldeMolde24134757:36+2143WWDLW
4RosenborgRosenborg25134849:31+1843WWWDW
5TromsoTromso24117643:34+940LDDWL
6LillestromLillestrom24123935:33+239WWDLW
7Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF2487930:35-531WLWLD
8KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo24861030:39-930DDWWW
9BrannBrann24921342:40+229LLLWL
10ValerengaValerenga24851139:46-729WWLDL
11FredrikstadFredrikstad25851229:44-1529LLLDD
12Ham-KamHam-Kam24751233:51-1826LLWLL
13SandefjordSandefjord24661222:31-924LLDWL
14AalesundAalesund24591040:53-1324LWLWL
15Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK24551425:49-2420DLLLL
16StartStart24541526:54-2819WLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1VikingViking2564:2659
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt2561:2359
3MoldeMolde2457:3643
4RosenborgRosenborg2549:3143
5TromsoTromso2443:3440
6LillestromLillestrom2435:3339
7Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF2430:3531
8KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo2430:3930
9BrannBrann2442:4029
10ValerengaValerenga2439:4629
11FredrikstadFredrikstad2529:4429
12Ham-KamHam-Kam2433:5126
13SandefjordSandefjord2422:3124
14AalesundAalesund2440:5324
15Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK2425:4920
16StartStart2426:5419
Champions LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom forecast

The forecasts for this Eliteserien match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fredrikstad and Lillestrom in the Eliteserien table

In the Eliteserien table, Lillestrom are 6th and Fredrikstad 11th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Fredrikstad 29-44, Lillestrom 35-33. The full standings are on the Eliteserien Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.