HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction

Stadion Poljud, Split·Mateo Erceg, Croatia 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.47
SignalGOODModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
HNK Hajduk Split Rest
3 days
Istra 1961 Rest
8 days

HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961: the result in context

HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961 drew 2-2 in the HNL on 9 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.40
X
20%4.53
2
14%6.74
Double Chance
1X
86%1.07
X2
34%2.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.83
No
46%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.89 + 0.89 = 2.78
Over 1.5
76%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.62
Over 3.5
31%2.60
Under 1.5
24%4.33
Under 2.5
43%2.20
Under 3.5
69%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.7 = 9.6
Over 8.5
62%1.51
Over 9.5
50%1.83
Over 10.5
39%2.35
Under 8.5
38%2.41
Under 9.5
50%1.85
Under 10.5
61%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8
Over 3.5
47%1.28
Over 4.5
31%1.64
Under 3.5
53%2.95
Under 4.5
69%2.07

Match Events

15'R. PukstasAssist: S. Hrgovic
42'E. Frederiksen
48'D. DoumbiaFoul
56'A. Sanyang INA. Sutalo out
56'M. Sego INM. Livaja out
56'L. Hodak IND. de Almeida out
56'D. Doumbia INA. Mauric out
60'M. SoticekFoul
64'S. MiettinenFoul
67'I. Saranic IND. Ahmeti out
67'N. Skafar Zuzic INV. Rozic out
80'R. Hrvatin INA. Kadusic out
80'N. Sigur INM. Acapandie out
80'G. Albarracin INM. Kablar out
84'M. Livaja
87'M. Soticek IND. Melnjak out
90+1'J. CabelloUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'D. AhmetiAssist: H. Jaganjac
90+7'A. SutaloFoul

Lineups

HNK Hajduk Split
4-2-3-1Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Istra 1961
4-2-3-1Coach: Javi Cabello
Avg rating6.91
Avg rating6.62
Toni SilićC5.933T. Silić
Luka Hodak6.938L. Hodak
Dario Marešić7.215D. Marešić
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck7.05A. Van Hoorenbeeck
Šimun Hrgović7.332Š. Hrgović
Niko Sigur7.28N. Sigur
Adrion Pajaziti7.24A. Pajaziti
Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba7.57A. Sanyang Bamba
Rokas Pukštas7.921R. Pukštas
Marin Šotiček7.023M. Šotiček
Michele Šego6.311M. Šego
Franko KolićC8.01F. Kolić
Rene Hrvatin6.544R. Hrvatin
Mohamed Nasraoui6.73M. Nasraoui
Samuli Miettinen6.916S. Miettinen
Niko Šepić6.013N. Šepić
Daouda Doumbia6.588D. Doumbia
Gustavo Albarracín6.325G. Albarracín
Emil Frederiksen7.222E. Frederiksen
Ivan Šaranić6.680I. Šaranić
Nik Škafar Žužić6.230N. Škafar Žužić
Hamza Jaganjac6.394H. Jaganjac

HNK Hajduk Split Substitutes

9Dalisson de Almeida56'for L. Hodak6.6
16Anđelo Šutalo56'for A. Sanyang90+7'6.6
10Marko Livaja56'for M. Sego84'7.2
44Dante Stipica
99Davyd Fesyuk
3Roko Gabrić
14Ron Raçi
17Dario Melnjak87'for M. Soticek6.6
22Mathieu Acapandié80'for N. Sigur6.2
19Etnik Brruti
20Alberto del Moral
26Adam Huram

Istra 1961 Substitutes

8Antonio Maurić56'for D. Doumbia6.6
7Vinko Rozić67'for N. Skafar Zuzic6.9
20Dukan Ahmeti67'for I. Saranic90+5'6.2
40Jan Paus-Kunšt
38Raul Kumar
24Filip Taraba
66Mutari Momoh
97Advan Kadušić80'for R. Hrvatin6.5
23Stipe Ukich
34Matija Kablar80'for G. Albarracin6.5
18Saydou Bangura
27Dominik Celija

Match Stats

HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
62%Ball Possession38%
6Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots7
7Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box5
7Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots1
15Fouls17
1Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves5
529Total Passes320
464Passes Accurate263
88%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961Istra 1961
1748Elo Rating 1605
1.84Attack 2.08
2.34Defense 2.14
54%Hit Rate 64%
14.3Shots per Game 12.5
4.5Shots on Target 5.9
4.8Corners per Game 4.9
2.0Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+143 Elo
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Istra 1961Istra 1961
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.7 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
Istra 1961Istra 19612Wins · 20%
2.3Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

HNL07/04/2026
Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split
13
HNL25/01/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
12
HNL19/10/2025
Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split
03
HNL03/08/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
21
HNL23/04/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
01
HNL15/02/2025
Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split
11
HNL09/11/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
11
HNL25/08/2024
Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split
11
HNL12/05/2024
Istra 1961HNK Hajduk Split
11
HNL02/03/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
10

Recent Form

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
7W0D3L
06/08/2026
FK Zalgiris VilniusHNK Hajduk Split
25
W
02/08/2026
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk Split
21
L
30/07/2026
PafosHNK Hajduk Split
4200
L
23/07/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitPafos
20
W
16/07/2026
ŽilinaHNK Hajduk Split
21
L
09/07/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitŽilina
20
W
01/07/2026
CeljeHNK Hajduk Split
01
W
27/06/2026
LNZ CherkasyHNK Hajduk Split
01
W
23/06/2026
ShkendijaHNK Hajduk Split
04
W
22/05/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitVukovar
63
W
Istra 1961Istra 1961
3W2D5L
01/08/2026
Istra 1961NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
23
L
25/07/2026
LecceIstra 1961
22
D
17/07/2026
Istra 1961Milton Keynes Dons
21
W
23/05/2026
NK VarazdinIstra 1961
20
L
17/05/2026
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
00
D
10/05/2026
NK OsijekIstra 1961
01
W
04/05/2026
Istra 1961NK Slaven Belupo
31
W
27/04/2026
HNK GoricaIstra 1961
10
L
22/04/2026
Istra 1961Dinamo Zagreb
02
L
18/04/2026
Istra 1961Vukovar
12
L

Referee Profile

Mateo Erceg121 matches

4.46Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mateo Erceg4.46
Other referees4.40

4.46 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.40).

Cards come from 69 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

HNL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1392227:11+1629WWDWW
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1281328:15+1325WLWWL
3NK OsijekNK Osijek1362522:18+420LWLDL
4Istra 1961Istra 19611354424:19+519WWDLW
5NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1354417:14+319LDLLW
6HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1253419:18+118LDLWL
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1351719:28-916WLWLW
8RudesRudes1351716:27-1116WWWLW
9NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1332814:21-711LLDWL
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica1314810:25-157LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1327:1129
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1228:1525
3NK OsijekNK Osijek1322:1820
4Istra 1961Istra 19611324:1919
5NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1317:1419
6HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1219:1818
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1319:2816
8RudesRudes1316:2716
9NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1314:2111
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica1310:257
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About the HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 forecast

The forecasts for this HNL match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961 in the HNL table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: HNK Hajduk Split are 1st in the HNL, 10 points ahead of Istra 1961 in 4th. League goal record so far: HNK Hajduk Split 27-11, Istra 1961 24-19. The full standings are on the HNL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

HNK Hajduk Split have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.