HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction

Stadion Poljud, Split· Mateo Erceg, Croatia 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.47
SignalGOODModel61%RiskMediumGap+5.0%
HNK Hajduk Split Rest
3 days
Istra 1961 Rest
8 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.40
X
20%4.53
2
14%6.74
Double Chance
1X
86%1.07
X2
34%2.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.83
No
46%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.89 + 0.89 = 2.78
Over 1.5
76%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.62
Over 3.5
31%2.60
Under 1.5
24%4.33
Under 2.5
43%2.20
Under 3.5
69%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.7 = 9.6
Over 8.5
62%1.51
Over 9.5
50%1.83
Over 10.5
39%2.35
Under 8.5
38%2.41
Under 9.5
50%1.85
Under 10.5
61%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8
Over 3.5
47%1.28
Over 4.5
31%1.64
Under 3.5
53%2.95
Under 4.5
69%2.07

Match Events

15'R. PukstasAssist: S. Hrgovic
42'E. Frederiksen
48'D. DoumbiaFoul
56'A. Sanyang INA. Sutalo out
56'M. Sego INM. Livaja out
56'L. Hodak IND. de Almeida out
56'D. Doumbia INA. Mauric out
60'M. SoticekFoul
64'S. MiettinenFoul
67'I. Saranic IND. Ahmeti out
67'N. Skafar Zuzic INV. Rozic out
80'R. Hrvatin INA. Kadusic out
80'N. Sigur INM. Acapandie out
80'G. Albarracin INM. Kablar out
84'M. Livaja
87'M. Soticek IND. Melnjak out
90+1'J. CabelloUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'D. AhmetiAssist: H. Jaganjac
90+7'A. SutaloFoul

Lineups

HNK Hajduk Split
4-2-3-1Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Istra 1961
4-2-3-1Coach: Javi Cabello
Toni Silić33T. SilićToni Silić
Luka Hodak38L. HodakLuka Hodak
Dario Marešić15D. MarešićDario Marešić
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck5A. Van HoorenbeeckAlec Van Hoorenbeeck
Šimun Hrgović32Š. HrgovićŠimun Hrgović
Niko Sigur8N. SigurNiko Sigur
Adrion Pajaziti4A. PajazitiAdrion Pajaziti
Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba7A. Sanyang BambaAbdoulie Sanyang Bamba
Rokas Pukštas21R. PukštasRokas Pukštas
Marin Šotiček23M. ŠotičekMarin Šotiček
Michele Šego11M. ŠegoMichele Šego
Franko Kolić1F. KolićFranko Kolić
Rene Hrvatin44R. HrvatinRene Hrvatin
Mohamed Nasraoui3M. NasraouiMohamed Nasraoui
Samuli Miettinen16S. MiettinenSamuli Miettinen
Niko Šepić13N. ŠepićNiko Šepić
Daouda Doumbia88D. DoumbiaDaouda Doumbia
Gustavo Albarracín25G. AlbarracínGustavo Albarracín
Emil Frederiksen22E. FrederiksenEmil Frederiksen
Ivan Šaranić80I. ŠaranićIvan Šaranić
Nik Škafar Žužić30N. Škafar ŽužićNik Škafar Žužić
Hamza Jaganjac94H. JaganjacHamza Jaganjac

HNK Hajduk Split Substitutes

9Dalisson de AlmeidaM
16Anđelo ŠutaloM
10Marko LivajaF
44Dante StipicaG
99Davyd FesyukG
3Roko GabrićD
14Ron RaçiD
17Dario MelnjakD
22Mathieu AcapandiéD
19Etnik BrrutiM
20Alberto del MoralM
26Adam HuramM

Istra 1961 Substitutes

8Antonio MaurićM
7Vinko RozićF
20Dukan AhmetiM
40Jan Paus-KunštG
38Raul KumarD
24Filip TarabaD
66Mutari MomohD
97Advan KadušićD
23Stipe UkichM
34Matija KablarM
18Saydou BanguraF
27Dominik CelijaF

Match Stats

HNK Hajduk SplitIstra 1961
61%Ball Possession39%
6Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots7
8Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots1
15Fouls17
1Offsides2
0Goalkeeper Saves6
526Total Passes321
460Passes Accurate264
87%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961Istra 1961
1738Elo Rating 1573
2.12Attack 2.57
2.72Defense 1.71
86%Hit Rate 50%
15.9Shots per Game 9.0
5.4Shots on Target 3.1
5.1Corners per Game 3.3
1.6Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+165 Elo
📈BTTS Trend66% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
  • Leads at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.9 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Istra 1961Istra 1961
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

HNK Hajduk Split 63%Draw 0%37% Istra 1961
2.99Avg Goals
66%BTTS Rate
86%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Istra 1961Istra 1961
1W2D2L
01/08/2026
Istra 1961NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
23
L
25/07/2026
LecceIstra 1961
22
D
17/07/2026
Istra 1961Milton Keynes Dons
21
W
23/05/2026
NK VarazdinIstra 1961
20
L
17/05/2026
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
00
D

League Table

HNL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split751116:5+1116WWWWW
2NK OsijekNK Osijek750217:11+615WLWLW
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin742113:7+614DDWLW
4Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb641114:7+713LWDWW
5HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka632110:7+311DWDWL
6Istra 1961Istra 1961723214:12+29WDDLW
7NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb72149:13-47DLLLL
8NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo72055:14-96LWLWL
9RudesRudes71068:22-143LLLWL
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica70254:12-82DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split716:516
2NK OsijekNK Osijek717:1115
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin713:714
4Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb614:713
5HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka610:711
6Istra 1961Istra 1961714:129
7NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb79:137
8NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo75:146
9RudesRudes78:223
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica74:122
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HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this HNL fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About HNL

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Key Factors for This Match

HNK Hajduk Split have led at half-time in 100% of their recent matches. Istra 1961 have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961 have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.99 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.