Lexington vs New Mexico United Prediction

Toyota Stadium 16/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.40
SignalGOODModel38%RiskHighGap+9.5%
Lexington Rest
3 days
New Mexico United Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
39%1.62
X
28%3.82
2
33%4.75
Double Chance
1X
67%1.14
X2
61%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.73
No
56%1.99
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
64%1.21
Over 2.5
39%1.72
Over 3.5
19%2.75
Under 1.5
36%3.88
Under 2.5
61%2.03
Under 3.5
81%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

28'T. BlackettFoul
40'A. OrdonezFoul
43'G. Hurst(Penalty)
45+3'V. NoelAssist: O. Jabang
45+5'J. GreeneFoul
61'Nick Firmino INT. Scott out
62'G. HurstAssist: J. Melto Quiah
64'B. FerriFoul
65'A. Ordonez INJ. Hafferty out
65'B. Ferri INM. Adedokun out
68'J. Melto QuiahAssist: V. Noel
69'V. Noel INL. Archimede out
69'C. Nava INC. Wilkerson out
70'P. Goodrum
83'B. P. Rodrigues INM. Yosef out
85'J. BrownFoul
86'G. Hurst ING. Zelalem out
86'O. Jabang IND. Harris out
90'G. ZelalemFoul
90+1'M. HemmiUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+2'Z. Bailey INN. Reid-Stephen out

Team Comparison

LexingtonLexington
New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United
1484Elo Rating 1562
1.98Attack 2.37
1.52Defense 0.80
41%Hit Rate 34%

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

LexingtonLexington
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 2 historical meetings

Lexington 46%Draw 0%54% New Mexico United
3Avg Goals
100%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5

Recent Form

LexingtonLexington
3W0D2L
12/07/2026
Louisville CityLexington
42
L
05/07/2026
Tampa Bay RowdiesLexington
14
W
21/06/2026
LexingtonIndy Eleven
6070
L
14/06/2026
LexingtonSan Antonio
20
W
07/06/2026
Detroit CityLexington
1131
W
New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United
3W2D0L

League Table

USL Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive25144744:31+1346WWWWW
2New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United24127537:27+1043DDDWL
3Colorado SpringsColorado Springs25115940:37+338DWWWL
4LexingtonLexington251141043:30+1337WWLLL
5FC TulsaFC Tulsa24107729:23+637DLDWW
6Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic2399530:20+1036WDDDW
7Orange County SCOrange County SC2599734:40-636LLDDL
8San AntonioSan Antonio2499629:28+136LDWLL
9Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights25961032:35-333DWLLL
10Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising2589835:35033LWDWD
11Oakland RootsOakland Roots2469929:35-627LDWDL
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay25461525:43-1818LDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive2544:3146
2New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United2437:2743
3Colorado SpringsColorado Springs2540:3738
4LexingtonLexington2543:3037
5FC TulsaFC Tulsa2429:2337
6Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic2330:2036
7Orange County SCOrange County SC2534:4036
8San AntonioSan Antonio2429:2836
9Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights2532:3533
10Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising2535:3533
11Oakland RootsOakland Roots2429:3527
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay2525:4318

Lexington vs New Mexico United Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this USL Championship fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About USL Championship

ScorePredicts covers USA football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Lexington and New Mexico United have met 2 times recently, averaging 3 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.