Lillestrom vs Aalesund Prediction

Lillestrom
3-2
Finished
HT 1-2
Aalesund
Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom·Stian Rovig Sletner 08/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalHIGHModel60%SurpriseMediumGap-2.9%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.31
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseMediumGap+2.0%
Lillestrom Rest
2 days
Aalesund Rest
7 days

Lillestrom vs Aalesund: result, form and history

Lillestrom beat Aalesund 3-2 in the Eliteserien on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Lillestrom have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 3.5 goals a game. Aalesund tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 3.6 for Lillestrom.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.71
X
21%4.40
2
23%3.90
Double Chance
1X
77%1.25
X2
44%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%1.36
No
33%3.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.14 + 1.15 = 3.29
Over 1.5
88%1.07
Over 2.5
71%1.31
Over 3.5
51%1.81
Under 1.5
12%7.50
Under 2.5
29%3.30
Under 3.5
49%1.95
Corners
Projected Corners: 7 + 4.6 = 11.6
Over 8.5
79%1.15
Over 9.5
70%1.28
Over 10.5
60%1.52
Under 8.5
21%4.35
Under 9.5
30%3.05
Under 10.5
40%2.33
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.9 = 3.3
Over 3.5
42%-
Over 4.5
24%-
Under 3.5
58%-
Under 4.5
76%-

Match Events

11'Ruben GabrielsenAssist: Frederik Elkaer
18'Marcus Reed
37'Marcus ReedAssist: Mathias Christensen
51'Henrik Molvaer Melland
56'Hans Erik ØdegaardDissent
59'Gustav Kjolstad NyheimFoul
60'Philip Sandvik Aukland INUlrik Syversen out
60'Marcus Reed INPaul Ngongo out
65'Henrik Molvaer Melland INYildren Ibrahimaj out
66'Filip Ottosson INKevin Martin Krygard out
66'Camil Jebara INFredrik Gulbrandsen out
73'Endre Osenbroch INSander Erik Kartum out
73'Elias Heggland Myrlid INIsak Gabriel Skotheim out
78'Kristoffer NessoFoul
81'Gustav Nordh INSeun Akanji out
89'Ruben GabrielsenAssist: Fredrik Gulbrandsen
90+2'Thomas Lehne Olsen INWinston Robin Yaw Paintsil out

Lineups

Lillestrom
4-1-4-1Coach: H. Ødegaard
Aalesund
5-3-2Coach: K. Rekdal
Avg rating6.79
Avg rating6.26
P. Dahlberg6.312P. Dahlberg
S. Ottesen6.43S. Ottesen
S. Foss6.95S. Foss
R. Gabrielsen9.228R. Gabrielsen
F. Elkær7.911F. Elkær
F. Ottosson6.621F. Ottosson
C. Jebara6.519C. Jebara
H. Melland7.416H. Melland
G. Nyheim6.214G. Nyheim
G. Nordh6.215G. Nordh
T. Lehne Olsen6.010T. Lehne Olsen
T. Larsen5.826T. Larsen
K. Nessø5.27K. Nessø
M. Andresen5.52M. Andresen
P. Aukland6.745P. Aukland
A. Hammer Kjelsen6.05A. Hammer Kjelsen
U. Charles6.214U. Charles
M. Christensen7.321M. Christensen
E. Hagen5.618E. Hagen
E. Osenbroch6.315E. Osenbroch
E. Myrlid6.317E. Myrlid
H. M. Reed9.027H. M. Reed

Lillestrom Substitutes

7L. Alperud
8F. Gulbrandsen66'for Camil Jebara6.9
1S. Hagerup
29Y. Ibrahimaj65'for Henrik Molvaer Melland6.6
17E. Kitolano
47S. Kristiansen
18K. Krygård66'for Filip Ottosson6.1
26Y. Paintsil90+2'for Thomas Lehne Olsen
25S. Akanji81'for Gustav Nordh6.5

Aalesund Substitutes

16J. Ørsahl
19S. Kartum73'for Endre Osenbroch5.9
22E. Engqvist
8I. Skotheim73'for Elias Heggland Myrlid5.9
9P. Ngongo60'for Marcus Reed6.6
41Philip Storås
33Theodor Kvalsund Pedersen
25U. Syversen60'for Philip Sandvik Aukland5.8

Match Stats

LillestromAalesund
58%Ball Possession42%
13Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots16
5Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal7
12Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots4
10Fouls12
3Goalkeeper Saves2
513Total Passes394
414Passes Accurate290
12Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

LillestromLillestrom
AalesundAalesund
1677Elo Rating 1575
1.12Attack 2.41
1.36Defense 0.80
59%Hit Rate 39%
16.7Shots per Game 15.4
4.1Shots on Target 5.3
3.6Corners per Game 6.6
1.7Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+102 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.29 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

LillestromLillestrom
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AalesundAalesund
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

LillestromLillestrom5Wins · 63%
Draws225%
AalesundAalesund1Wins · 12%
3.5Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored6 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8

Previous meetings

Eliteserien15/03/2026
AalesundLillestrom
13
1. Division10/08/2025
LillestromAalesund
51
1. Division31/03/2025
AalesundLillestrom
22
Eliteserien03/09/2023
AalesundLillestrom
11
Eliteserien19/07/2023
LillestromAalesund
51
Eliteserien06/11/2022
AalesundLillestrom
21
NM Cupen29/06/2022
LillestromAalesund
10
Eliteserien28/04/2022
LillestromAalesund
20

Referee Profile

Stian Rovig Sletner107 matches

3.24Cards per match
3.21Yellow cards per match
0.03Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Stian Rovig Sletner3.24
Other referees3.52

3.24 cards a match, 0.28 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.52).

Cards come from 29 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eliteserien 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1VikingViking26202469:27+4262WLWWW
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt26202463:23+4062WWLWW
3RosenborgRosenborg26144853:32+2146WWWWD
4LillestromLillestrom26143939:35+445WWWWD
5MoldeMolde26135864:44+2044DLWWD
6TromsoTromso26117843:40+340LLLDD
7BrannBrann261031347:44+333DWLLL
8ValerengaValerenga26951243:47-432LWWWL
9Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF26871132:42-1031LLWLW
10KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo26871133:46-1331LDDDW
11Ham-KamHam-Kam26861238:53-1530WDLLW
12FredrikstadFredrikstad26861231:46-1530DLLLD
13SandefjordSandefjord26771231:39-828DWLLD
14Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK26751430:51-2126WWDLL
15AalesundAalesund26591245:60-1524LLLWL
16StartStart26541727:59-3219LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1VikingViking2669:2762
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt2663:2362
3RosenborgRosenborg2653:3246
4LillestromLillestrom2639:3545
5MoldeMolde2664:4444
6TromsoTromso2643:4040
7BrannBrann2647:4433
8ValerengaValerenga2643:4732
9Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF2632:4231
10KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo2633:4631
11Ham-KamHam-Kam2638:5330
12FredrikstadFredrikstad2631:4630
13SandefjordSandefjord2631:3928
14Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK2630:5126
15AalesundAalesund2645:6024
16StartStart2627:5919
Champions LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Lillestrom vs Aalesund forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lillestrom and Aalesund in the Eliteserien table

The table shows a wide gap: Lillestrom are 4th in the Eliteserien, while Aalesund sit 15th, 21 points behind. League goal record so far: Lillestrom 39-35, Aalesund 45-60. The full standings are on the Eliteserien Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.