Napoli vs Arsenal Prediction
World · League Stage - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
80%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.31
SignalSTRONGModel80%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Napoli Rest
4 days
Arsenal Rest
3 days
Napoli vs Arsenal: the result in context
Arsenal beat Napoli 1-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 9 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Arsenal had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Napoli.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
124%5.63
X24%3.90
252%1.62
Double Chance
1X48%2.26
X276%1.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%1.91
No47%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.46 = 2.73
Over 1.575%1.29
Over 2.552%1.92
Over 3.530%3.25
Under 1.525%3.50
Under 2.548%1.90
Under 3.570%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.9 + 4.2 = 8.1
Over 8.551%1.70
Over 9.541%2.07
Over 10.531%2.73
Under 8.549%2.10
Under 9.559%1.67
Under 10.569%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.7 = 3.2
Over 3.540%2.20
Over 4.522%3.27
Under 3.560%1.61
Under 4.578%1.29
Match Events
42'Billy GilmourFoul
45'Alex Meret INVanja Milinković-Savić out
57'Matteo Politano INCostantino Favasuli out
58'Alisson Santos INAntonio Vergara out
65'Mikel Merino INBruno Guimarães out
66'Eberechi Eze INChristos Tzolis out
73'Viktor Gyökeres INKai Havertz out
73'Bukayo Saka INNoni Madueke out
75'Martin OdegaardAssist: Christos Tzolis
76'Rasmus Hojlund INDavid Neres out
77'Stanislav Lobotka INLorenzo Lucca out
82'Ben White INMartín Zubimendi out
85'Lorenzo LuccaFoul
90+1'Martin OdegaardTime wasting
Lineups
NapoliArsenal
4-2-3-1Coach: Mikel ArtetaAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Meret
22G. Di Lorenzo
13A. Rrahmani
16R. Marín
17M. Olivera
11K. De Bruyne
6B. Gilmour
68S. Lobotka
21M. Politano
19R. Højlund
27A. Santos
1D. Raya
4B. White
15E. Konsa
6G. Magalhães
5P. Hincapié
23M. Merino
41D. Rice
7B. Saka
8M. Ødegaard
10E. Eze
14V. GyökeresNapoli Substitutes
26A. Vergara58'for Alisson Santos
2C. Favasuli57'for Matteo Politano
14N. Contini
31S. Beukema
20L. Lucca77'for Stanislav Lobotka85'
32V. Milinković-Savić45'for Alex Meret
7David Neres76'for Rasmus Hojlund
5B. Badiashile
37L. Spinazzola
Arsenal Substitutes
33R. Calafiori
56M. Dowman
29K. Havertz73'for Viktor Gyökeres
49M. Lewis-Skelly
20N. Madueke73'for Bukayo Saka
30I. Meslier
89M. Salmon
17C. Tzolis66'for Eberechi Eze
36Martín Zubimendi82'for Ben White
13Kepa
39Bruno Guimarães65'for Mikel Merino
Match Stats
NapoliArsenal 42%Ball Possession58%
0Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
5Total Shots26
3Shots on Goal8
0Shots off Goal11
2Shots Inside Box15
3Shots Outside Box11
2Blocked Shots7
12Fouls11
1Offsides1
6Goalkeeper Saves3
446Total Passes608
383Passes Accurate559
11Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
NapoliArsenal1829Elo Rating 2038
1.91Attack 1.68
1.24Defense 1.87
44%Hit Rate 59%
18.3Shots per Game 12.7
7.1Shots on Target 4.4
5.8Corners per Game 5.4
1.7Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend
Game State Tendencies
Napoli- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.7 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Arsenal- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.3 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 2 meetings, all competitions
Napoli0Wins · 0%Draws00%
Arsenal2Wins · 100%
2Wins · 100%1.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2
Previous meetings
18/04/2019NapoliArsenal01
11/04/2019ArsenalNapoli20
Recent Form
Napoli6W1D3L
05/09/2026
InterNapoliNapoli
Como
GenoaNapoli
InterNapoli32
L30/08/2026NapoliComo12
L22/08/2026GenoaNapoli02
W12/08/2026Napoli
Aris Thessalonikis
NapoliAris Thessalonikis62
W08/08/2026Napoli
Celta Vigo
NapoliCelta Vigo11
D05/08/2026Napoli
Osasuna
NapoliOsasuna21
W26/07/2026Napoli
Carrarese
NapoliCarrarese20
W22/07/2026Napoli
Arezzo
NapoliArezzo13
L24/05/2026Napoli
Udinese
NapoliUdinese10
W17/05/2026
PisaNapoli
PisaNapoli03
WArsenal7W0D3L
06/09/2026Arsenal
Chelsea
Aston VillaArsenalArsenal
Coventry
ArsenalChelsea21
W31/08/2026Aston VillaArsenal01
W21/08/2026ArsenalCoventry30
W16/08/2026Arsenal
Manchester City
ArsenalManchester City30
W12/08/2026ArsenalComo
ArsenalComo4131
W09/08/2026Arsenal
Borussia Dortmund
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund23
L05/08/2026Arsenal
Real Betis
ArsenalReal Betis13
L01/08/2026
GironaArsenal
GironaArsenal14
W30/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainArsenal
Paris Saint GermainArsenal4131
L24/05/2026
Crystal PalaceArsenal
Crystal PalaceArsenal12
WReferee Profile
3.59Cards per match
3.46Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.59 cards a match, 0.35 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.94).
Cards come from 176 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Champions League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
VikingAEK Athens FC
CelticLask Linz
Union St. GilloiseBodo/Glimt
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta Praha
LyonSlovan Bratislava
Mjallby AIF
Aarhus
Lech PoznanFenerbahçe
Gornik Zabrze
FC Thun
Dinamo Zagreb
Sturm Graz
Heart Of Midlothian
FK Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Omonia Nicosia
CeljeVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonSlovan BratislavaMjallby AIFAarhusLech PoznanFenerbahçeGornik ZabrzeFC ThunDinamo ZagrebSturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianFK Crvena ZvezdaHapoel Beer ShevaOmonia NicosiaCeljeExplore more predictions
This match
About the Napoli vs Arsenal forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Napoli and Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Arsenal are 7th and Napoli 22nd, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Napoli 5-7, Arsenal 6-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Napoli have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Napoli and Arsenal have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.